The story changes … is volatility back?
I was gearing up to write about how volatility in the fx market had disappeared – something that Simon Derrick ably highlighted on Monday. Even though the yen is very, very weak against the currencies of the advanced economies by almost any measure, the market expected volatility to be lower than it had ever been in the past. Derrick last Friday:
This has seen EUR/USD 3 month implied vol. collapse to a record low of 5.5% (compared to a record prior to last July of 7.93%). Meanwhile the equivalent price in USD/JPY has spent most of this year trading close to levels not seen since October 1996 (and then only briefly). Similarly, the cable implied vol. price is trading close to levels not seen in half a decade.
What is remarkable about the activity in these three instruments, however, is that they are currently pricing in levels of calm in these currency pairs over the next three months that have rarely, if ever, actually been seen in the past. USD/JPY has only fleetingly seen such low levels of volatility in the spot price on two occasions in fifteen years (the start of February 1993 and late October 1996) while in cable the current implied level of volatility for the spot price over the next three months has only been seen once in past decade and a half (mid-October 1996).
Most remarkable of all though is the current 5.5% 3-month at-the-money-forward implied volatility in EUR/USD given that the lowest level recorded for the historical volatility of EUR/USD (or its components prior to 1999) from 1992 onwards was 6.54% (in October 1996). In other words the EUR/USD currency options market is currently forecasting that the next three months will be the quietest on record for this currency pair by some considerable margin. (Emphasis added)
Well, things changed a bit today. On an absolute level, volatility no doubt remains fairly low. However, it is a bit higher than it was – and both the yen and swiss franc rallied after a small correction in the Chinese equity market triggered a general bout of risk aversion.
One interesting point: the dollar didn’t benefit from today’s flight to quality. Fair enough. The currencies of countries with big current account deficits facing a shortfall in private inflows aren’t classically considered the gold-standard by those looking for a safety.
That though is a bit different than last spring, when the dollar did benefit for a while from the flight out of emerging markets in May (more here). I think Macro man probably has this story right: after the April 2006 G-7 communique (the one that briefly made Dr. Roach an optimist) some big players started to bet that the dollar would fall. In practice, that meant that they ended up using the dollar to finance their high-carry bets on Turkey and Brazil. Or to finance their bets on Turkish, Brazilian and Russian equities. When those bets unwound in May and June, the dollar got a bit of a boost. Today, though, it was the yen that got the big boost. Bloomberg:
The yen also advanced 4.1 percent against the Turkish lira, 3.9 percent versus the South African rand and 2.8 percent against Iceland's krona as investors shunned riskier assets in emerging markets following a rout in Chinese stock market shares.
Yet more circumstantial evidence that leveraged bets on the emerging world right now are – or were — financed not with dollars but with yen and swiss franc.
UPDATE, February 28th: A bit more on the last point — namely the use of the yen to finance bets in a range of risky assets — from Simon Derrick:
USD/JPY’s 2.19% fall, understandably enough, captured a great deal of the attention yesterday given that this was the pair’s 6th largest daily decline this decade, dwarfing the somewhat anaemic 0.44% rally seen in EUR/USD. However, it is on the JPY crosses that the really interesting story emerged. GBP/JPY, for example, managed to stage its largest daily decline since May 2001, losing a substantial 2.27% before making a modest (0.4%) recovery overnight. AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY were even more extreme, losing 2.89% (the largest drop since 2002) and 3.72% (the largest daily move we have a record of) respectively. ZAR/JPY collapsed by 4.46% (the largest decline since early 2004) while HUF/JPY dropped a slightly more modest 3.48%. In short then yesterday was not about the USD at all but rather about the use of the JPY as a funding currency to invest in a variety of high yielding (and, in some cases, relatively illiquid) currencies and what happens to these trades when risk appetite declines.
Emphasis added. Derrick goes on to note that even after the correction yesterday, insurance against big moves in the $/ yen is quite cheap. I agree.
NOTE: I edited the first paragraph of this post to clarify that I was referring to the yen's weakness against the currencies of other established economies. All the G-3 currencies are in some sense strong relative to most emerging currencies. Some (the euro) are just stronger than others (the yen).
w/ record margin debt, this is forced selling; check yr counterparties cuz a lot of leverage is going to be called in… unless the fed cuts?
“…the yen is very, very weak by any measure…”
Except by Purchasing Power Parity against non-Europe.
Oh, but the dollar has rallied. Not against the yen or CHF, to be sure, but against sterling, the loonie, the Mex, the real, the Turkisj lira, Aussie and kiwi. And, of course, gold. I suspect the sting in the tail for the euro will come soon enough, should today’s developments carry on for a few days more. If nothing else, momentum-driven sellers of EUR/JPY should apply some pressure to the euro generally. Funny how among all the angst over record yen shorts on the IMM recently, no one seemed too bothered about record longs in the euro….
Oh, and the post that Brad alludes to above was called ‘Yen Again.’ Sadly I am an html illiterate, else I’d post a link in the comment.
http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2007/02/yen-again.html
Brad, I’m going to have to start paying you an advertising fee!
Richard — good point. tho i think even ppp v. the us is starting too look better, esp. if you factor in the recent rise in NYC rents. all this is v. the currencies of other advanced economies (korea counts here).
Macro Man — i’ll get back to you with my fee structure.
if the $ is down v. the other g-3 currencies (haven’t checked the latest), i generally would say the $ slid even if rose v. “risk” assets in the g-10/ EM land (with NZ$ and the icelandic krona counting as risk assets in our current world financial order)
The Chinese need to learn that if they’re going to try to hide their wealth from 20% money supply growth, they’ll have to pick an asset class with some intrinsic scarcity.
Internet chatroom stocks don’t pass this test. Nor does real estate.
Fair enough…but a dollar rally against the stuff mentioned above has a funny way of turning into a dollar rally against other stuff (including G3 currencies as well.) While yen positioning is clearly different from last May, I’d say that euro positioning is just as big if not bigger, which would obviously raise the risk of an eventual crackback….
Brad, you’re right about the _logic_ of avoiding the USD in a flight to quality. But that’s not what has happened the last few times. 1998 and 2003, for instance (we refi’d the house on both of those, that’s why I remember). There were big deficits both times, especially in 2003.
So maybe it’s gone too long, with CB’s now the only acknowledged backstop buyers, maybe these big corrections are going to look different. Maybe it’s the first sign that you and Nouriel are going to be proven right. Well, if it has to happen sooner or later, better sooner.
98 was very different — the US ext. deficit was much smaller (tho growing) and US macro position generally was far stronger (fiscal falling). I understood the dollar = quality argument. 2003 = less so. Now, well … not as much.
that said, the $ did benefit from a flight to quality/ deleveraging in 06, and, as macro man notes, there are a lot of euro longs out there (as well as yen shorts) so if the euro were to start to fall, some folks would need to run for cover. but right now, i don’t see a good reason for folks running out of various risk markets not to be running into euros. it makes more sense than rushing into $ (i.e. rushing in a bout of risk aversion to finance the US despite its huge deficits)
macro man has a somewhat different view tho. he would note that the euro is already quite strong v. $ and very strong v. yen …
but the bigger issue here is will the new aligment of financial forces — ems financing the US, fancy credit derivatives that allow large leveraged bets on credit — end up dismantling lots of historic correlations.
If the debauched USD is “quality,” then Britney Spears is pure “class.” Oh baby, baby how was I supposed to know? Hit me one more time, indeed. I hope those carry traders eat it.
Macro Man: Of course you’re right on the dollar strengthening against those currencies, but I’m afraid of going into that line of reasoning for you can also say that the EUR and JPY have gained against the
GBP, CAD, MXN, BRL, TRY, AUD, and NZD. It’s a circular reasoning trap: higher-yielding currencies should typically weaken against the USD when they weaken against these funding currencies.
Yes, but if it is financing the c/a deficit that you are worried about, then you must be comforted to note that most of the TRY, BRL, MXN, CAD, ZAR (and tomorrow, KRW, INR, etc.) that will be sold, will be sold against dollars.
if it may be ‘profit taking’ and that longer term proves if ‘risk aversion’ seriously sets in - i.e. if profits are reallocated to ’safe havens’ or ‘frontiers’ and where/what those may be: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/02/12/2428/next-stop-for-alternative-investing-iraq/
if anyone cares to suggest what the ‘Helen Mirren’ (Елена ВаÑильевна Миронова) of the currency world may be…
The Shanghai stock market is very simple:
1) Place your bet on red or black.
2) Spin the wheel.
3) Collect your winnings or bemoan your losses.
Very straight forward, except that the house has the right to change the rules in the middle of the spin.
.
DOR: Check out Safe Haven…
With no legal gambling outlets on the mainland, millions of investors are rushing to buy stocks and mutual funds instead. Who needs baccarat tables and roulette wheels when you have China’s stock market?
Guest: Obviously, the British pound is the Helen Mirren of the currency world. She’s from Essex, though, and my English friends tell me that has negative connotations.
The dollar is surely the Britney Spears of the currency world–in need of rehab and guaranteed to give you a haircut given America’s free-spending ways. All sass, no class.
From Washington Irving’s _The Crayon Papers_:
At the outset, while the bank was limited in its operations, and while its paper really represented the specie in its vaults, it seemed to realize all that had been promised from it. It rapidly acquired public confidence, and an extended circulation, and produced an activity in commerce unknown under the baneful government of Louis XIV. As the bills of the bank bore an interest, and as it was stipulated they would be of invariable value, and as hints had been artfully circulated that the coin would experience successive diminution, everybody hastened to the bank to exchange gold and silver for paper. So great became the throng of depositors, and so intense their eagerness, that there was quite a press and struggle at the bank door, and a ludicrous panic was awakened, as if there was danger of their not being admitted. An anecdote of the time relates that one of the clerks,with an ominous smile, called out to the struggling multitude, “Have a little patience, my friends; we mean to take all your money;” an assertion disastrously verified in the sequel.
Online at Gutenberg - search for “Mississippi Bubble.”
like the dollar = britney comparison. but it is clear the dollar has a better support system.
Brad–I sensed that investers suddenly became worried about excessive exposure to riskey operations, including investment in US stocks. The hardest hit were, in the rough order of magnitude, Chinese stocks, other emerging market stocks, US stocks, European stocks, Japanese stocks, emerging market currencies, the dollar and the euro.
So, I don’t think the event was uniquely or particularly related to the unwinding of the yen carry trade, though there was some such unwinding definitely.
This means two things; there could be a really big unwinding of the yen carry trade in the future, and if so, then all currencies other than the yen (and Swiss franc) would fall precipitously, and not only stock prices but also bond prices would fall.
I really don’t understand this. Chinese stock market has very little interaction with the outside world, and it has almost no impact on the chinese economy. So why do ppl panic?
Chinese stock market is not a gambling casino, with 30% EPS growth in 2006 and 20% CAGR growth likely in 07-08, its 25x PE is no more speculative than G7 or other emerging market. Simplify market selloff as gambling is naive.
After more than 200% rally in last 12months, cry for pain for 8% correction from peak is immature.
What is interesting is that China domestic equity, the trigger of jump in global risk aversion, might turn out to still be the best equity market globally.
China macro pictures, surging productivity, earning growth, undervalued Rmb, rock solid Balance of payment, fiscal surplus and stable totalitarin regime are still difficult to rival.
I am buy on dips yesterday and today on China A market and went short Indian which is a lot more vulnerable to rising risk premium
Looking at volatility provides one half of the current picture. The other half is risk premiums which are extremely low, by any standard - except of course in the sub-prime mortgage market.
Take a look at the CDX and iTraxx indexes. That’s where the other shoe is about to drop. As of June 2006 there were $27 trillion in CDS’s outstanding, likely nearer $30-35 trillion now. Margin calls from those alone can quickly unravel the yen + swiss carry trades, further increasing FX volatility.
We have all the makings of a vicious cycle just starting, to replace the hitherto “virtuous” one.
‘Correlation’ rather than ‘contagion”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/81e834ea-c6be-11db-8f4f-000b5df10621.html
If anyone noticed that many of yesterday’s leading NYSE decliners were ‘Chinese’ firms…
HK — I agree with your basic view, namely that the real risk would be a big fall off in flows (including central bank flows) that pushed us rates (including treasuries) up as the US slowed. That wasn’t what happenened yesterday.
that said, I don’t find the treasuries rally strong evidence against an “unwinding of the carry trade” hypothesis, for two reasons:
a) A lot of other news came out that was positive for bonds (bad durable goods, stock market tanks so flows to safety)
b) I don’t think borrowing yen to buy US $ has been as big a theme in the “Carry trade” universe as borrowing yen to buy brazil, turkey, iceland, india, and otherwise find a lot of “risk” assets that offer bigger returns. Some of these flows are big — Indian and Brazilian reserves should increase by close to $30b in February, implying large inflows (perhaps mostly initially yen borrowed from Japanese banks) to these economies and large purchases of Treasuries by their central banks. There also were yen flows to Australia, NZ, the UK and other high yielders in the G-7. They all sold off. Ergo it certainly felt like a bit of a correction in the interest rate driven carry trade world — and perhaps in the borrow yen to buy EM equities world.
If China is the problem, of course the dollar didn’t rally, the dollar being approximately China’s currency. If the dollar had rallied, RMB would also have had to rally (unless there were a dramatic change in the way the Chinese are doing business). Seldom does a currency rally on news of a stock market crash.
China’s currency also didn’t rally on the back of its stock market boom, which is a bit more unusual …
brad
“All the G-3 currencies are in some sense strong relative to most emerging currencies. Some (the euro) are just stronger than others (the yen)”
amen brother amen
funny how strong is the dynamic name for
over valued
and only more so if there’s a run out of emerging financial markets
no one’s keeping track
but about a year ago here i suggested we had about a year to a year and a half
before the emerger prefifurative zip zap
of back then
would revisit us with real intent
i hope i’m proven wrong
there’s always a second time
though in my case one was quite enough
btw
i love not having
to time this stuff anymore
back in my harnessed days
advice like
” give or take 6 months”
was followed by
“you’re fired
give or take 6 seconds “
VIX’s high was 19 yesterday, so no, volatility has not returned, at least not yet.
I don’t know how well China’s stock market will do going forward, but I do agree with isaac that Indian market is very vulnerable. Much more that China’s, IMHO.
Good thing everyone is still willing to live in the world of illusion. Otherwie, people might look at actual economic fundamentals, and only buy US bonds based on the odds of whether the US Government can actually ever pay off $8 trillion. Also, it is possible to compare the USD to the yen to the Euro based on which one can get more creative financing structures, NOT based on which ones are based on actual fiscal integrity or sound economic criteria and real growth.
“China’s currency also didn’t rally on the back of its stock market boom.” Of course not, because it was tied to the dollar. The boom has been gradual and simultaneous with huge US trade deficits. The crash was sudden, and the US trade deficit is still there. So US+China didn’t look that great during the boom, but it certainly doesn’t look very good after the crash.
knzn — exactly. tis the rmb-$, and collectively, it still runs a big current account deficit, one financed heavily by Japan and the oil exporters …
‘use of the JPY as a funding currency to invest in a variety of high yielding, (… illiquid) currencies and what happens to these trades when risk appetite declines’
The carry trade gets a bad rap as a kind of speculation. In fact, no one does it to raise the stakes. In practice the trade is part of a portfolio, and the idea is to boost the weight of safer assets. Done right, this increases return without more risk. The unwinding can draw on resources from anywhere in the portfolio. The long assets, bonds, can be nice to have in a volatility squall, so traders might prefer to liquidate riskier equities. The dollar’s relatively modest loss could simply mean that carry traders were underweighting US equities like any sane person would do.
“…Hedge fund capital dedicated to volatility strategies has grown by more than 150 percent over the last three years, with an increase of nearly 65 percent in 2006 alone, and the total capital managed by firms that trade volatility as an asset class is in excess of USD89bn…” http://www.hedgeweek.com/articles/detail.jsp?content_id=51155
The Red Kite guys have been quiet little mice. Goldman Sach’s Global Alpha bleeds for them. Silver futures are looking bunkyhuntical; lead too, of which China gloms the world’s incremental demand and then some. I love the smell of positive feedback in the morning.
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