Comments on: What? http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/ Wed, 07 Jan 2009 20:43:47 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.1 By: A. P. Simkin http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98066 A. P. Simkin Fri, 27 Jul 2007 00:25:10 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98066 What is decreed by Peking often is ignored by the provincial folks. Thus it's been for centuries, and hasn't changed with this crowd. What is decreed by Peking often is ignored by the provincial folks. Thus it’s been for centuries, and hasn’t changed with this crowd.

]]> By: HZ http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98065 HZ Thu, 26 Jul 2007 12:57:04 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98065 At the current diesel price long distance trucking is a lot more expensive than rails. Check out US truckers performance relative to railroads. At the current diesel price long distance trucking is a lot more expensive than rails. Check out US truckers performance relative to railroads.

]]> By: Twofish http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98064 Twofish Thu, 26 Jul 2007 05:40:35 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98064 IMHO, the cut in textiles is aimed less at emerging markets than at Senators Graham and Schumer. Textiles is the one industry in which China does have a strong competitive advantage and in which reducing exports won't simply cause production to move to Mexico. Overland shipping costs depend on infrastructure and China has built tens of thousands of miles of highways in the last fifteen years. Finally, looking at the statistics, it seems that the real problem for people in the United States isn't income growth. It's income volatility. IMHO, the cut in textiles is aimed less at emerging markets than at Senators Graham and Schumer. Textiles is the one industry in which China does have a strong competitive advantage and in which reducing exports won’t simply cause production to move to Mexico.

Overland shipping costs depend on infrastructure and China has built tens of thousands of miles of highways in the last fifteen years.

Finally, looking at the statistics, it seems that the real problem for people in the United States isn’t income growth. It’s income volatility.

]]> By: Twofish http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98063 Twofish Thu, 26 Jul 2007 05:27:06 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98063 The idea that Chinese are more group-oriented and less invididualistic than people in the West is a common stereotype, but I think it is very inaccurate and misleading. The idea that Chinese are more group-oriented and less invididualistic than people in the West is a common stereotype, but I think it is very inaccurate and misleading.

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98062 Guest Thu, 26 Jul 2007 04:34:16 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98062 "The sex trade is booming in China, having benefited from the country's effective embrace of capitalism..." http://www.amrc.org.hk/Arch/3303.htm “The sex trade is booming in China, having benefited from the country’s effective embrace of capitalism…” http://www.amrc.org.hk/Arch/3303.htm

]]> By: Dave Chiang http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98061 Dave Chiang Thu, 26 Jul 2007 04:28:35 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98061 Surprising News Article from the Neo-con Washington Times (ie. Usually they China bash on just about everything) China powering world economy July 26, 2007 http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070726/BUSINESS/107260073/1006 China, this year for the first time, has dislodged the United States from its long reign as the main engine of global economic growth, with its more than 11 percent growth eclipsing sputtering U.S. growth of about 2 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund's 2007 projections released yesterday. China's growth, which has been fueled by booming domestic building and commercial development, as well as soaring exports, has accelerated even as U.S. growth dropped to 0.7 percent in the first quarter under the weight of a profound housing recession. China is expected to drive a hearty 5.2 percent expansion of the global economy this year, the IMF said. "This year for the very first time — with its very strong growth expected, and with the growth slowdown in the United States — China will be contributing the largest part to the increase in the global growth measured at market exchange rates," said Charles Collyns, the IMF's deputy director of research. China will provide one-quarter of the annual growth rate of the world economy. Surprising News Article from the Neo-con Washington Times
(ie. Usually they China bash on just about everything)

China powering world economy
July 26, 2007
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070726/BUSINESS/107260073/1006

China, this year for the first time, has dislodged the United States from its long reign as the main engine of global economic growth, with its more than 11 percent growth eclipsing sputtering U.S. growth of about 2 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund’s 2007 projections released yesterday.

China’s growth, which has been fueled by booming domestic building and commercial development, as well as soaring exports, has accelerated even as U.S. growth dropped to 0.7 percent in the first quarter under the weight of a profound housing recession. China is expected to drive a hearty 5.2 percent expansion of the global economy this year, the IMF said.

“This year for the very first time — with its very strong growth expected, and with the growth slowdown in the United States — China will be contributing the largest part to the increase in the global growth measured at market exchange rates,” said Charles Collyns, the IMF’s deputy director of research.

China will provide one-quarter of the annual growth rate of the world economy.

]]> By: Dave Chiang http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98060 Dave Chiang Thu, 26 Jul 2007 04:20:27 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98060 koteli: Does this decision have any sense, apart from a show-off of authority? Or I'm missing the point? Dave - Reply In contrast to more individualistic US society, Chinese culture is more group oriented so it is not uncommon that the government would legislate morality. koteli:
Does this decision have any sense, apart from a show-off of authority? Or I’m missing the point?

Dave - Reply
In contrast to more individualistic US society, Chinese culture is more group oriented so it is not uncommon that the government would legislate morality.

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98059 Guest Thu, 26 Jul 2007 03:59:13 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98059 re: "People are put to work today, but what happens tomorrow..." "Recently American Anheuser-Busch Inc. and Budweiser Wuhan International Brewing Co. Ltd. instituted a proceeding against five Chinese companies for trademark infringement and unfair competition..." http://www.wptn.com/Mailing/July_2007_3/details/trademarks/china.html "...Mrs. Paterson's statement added to Southwestern's nightmare, which started with her husband's abrupt resignation from the company last month. The Vancouver-based firm was flying high until June 18, when it announced that a pre-feasibility study on the China-based Boka project was unexpectedly delayed. Mr. Paterson walked out the next day, citing personal reasons. Then last Thursday, the company unveiled a bombshell: some drilling results from Boka were apparently manipulated, and John Zhang, the chief geologist on the project, could not be reached..." http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=c074a0de-a5ed-4a45-96fd-621a229edd23&k=91855 re: “People are put to work today, but what happens tomorrow…”

“Recently American Anheuser-Busch Inc. and Budweiser Wuhan International Brewing Co. Ltd. instituted a proceeding against five Chinese companies for trademark infringement and unfair competition…” http://www.wptn.com/Mailing/July_2007_3/details/trademarks/china.html

“…Mrs. Paterson’s statement added to Southwestern’s nightmare, which started with her husband’s abrupt resignation from the company last month. The Vancouver-based firm was flying high until June 18, when it announced that a pre-feasibility study on the China-based Boka project was unexpectedly delayed. Mr. Paterson walked out the next day, citing personal reasons. Then last Thursday, the company unveiled a bombshell: some drilling results from Boka were apparently manipulated, and John Zhang, the chief geologist on the project, could not be reached…” http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=c074a0de-a5ed-4a45-96fd-621a229edd23&k=91855

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98058 Guest Thu, 26 Jul 2007 03:48:05 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98058 "...Confidence among Chinese bankers fell to a record low in the second quarter as the outlook for economic growth worsened, a survey by the People's Bank of China found..." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aLmDqI8plUkY&refer=home “…Confidence among Chinese bankers fell to a record low in the second quarter as the outlook for economic growth worsened, a survey by the People’s Bank of China found…” http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aLmDqI8plUkY&refer=home

]]> By: RN http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98057 RN Thu, 26 Jul 2007 03:07:48 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/07/25/what/#comment-98057 Stormy said: "At what point does the cost of production exceed the buying power of the Western middle class, if middle class wages continue to stagnate and if the cost of energy continues to escalate, and if the credit crunch becomes worse? " Very interesting way to phrase it. Of course a large part of the Western buying power ultimately comes from China's less than optimal investment decisions and the requirement to maintain the peg. The peg strikes me as an interesting concept in flow effects. People are put to work today, but what happens tomorrow to the aggregate wages they earned? Stormy said:

“At what point does the cost of production exceed the buying power of the Western middle class, if middle class wages continue to stagnate and if the cost of energy continues to escalate, and if the credit crunch becomes worse? ”

Very interesting way to phrase it.

Of course a large part of the Western buying power ultimately comes from China’s less than optimal investment decisions and the requirement to maintain the peg.

The peg strikes me as an interesting concept in flow effects. People are put to work today, but what happens tomorrow to the aggregate wages they earned?

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