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	<title>Comments on: Reverse engineering financial engineering</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/</link>
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		<title>By: Guest</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99217</link>
		<dc:creator>Guest</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Aug 2007 12:47:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99217</guid>
		<description>enquire within...
http://jobs.kedrosky.com/job/7af8574128a220c5b25f574659a605ec/?d=1</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>enquire within&#8230;<br />
<a href="http://jobs.kedrosky.com/job/7af8574128a220c5b25f574659a605ec/?d=1" rel="nofollow">http://jobs.kedrosky.com/job/7af8574128a220c5b25f574659a605ec/?d=1</a></p>
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		<title>By: RL</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99216</link>
		<dc:creator>RL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Aug 2007 10:35:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99216</guid>
		<description>Does anyone have a sense as to the amount or percentage of CDO/Synthetic CDO/ABS/RMBS/CMBS liquidations that are triggered by pre-default actions including: rating agency downgrades, delinquencies, mark-to-market levels, rate resets, covenant violations and/or minimum excess spread thresholds breached?  My belief is that merely the prediction of default is enough to enable it to become self-fulfilling.  Thanks.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Does anyone have a sense as to the amount or percentage of CDO/Synthetic CDO/ABS/RMBS/CMBS liquidations that are triggered by pre-default actions including: rating agency downgrades, delinquencies, mark-to-market levels, rate resets, covenant violations and/or minimum excess spread thresholds breached?  My belief is that merely the prediction of default is enough to enable it to become self-fulfilling.  Thanks.</p>
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		<title>By: RebelEconomist</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99215</link>
		<dc:creator>RebelEconomist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Aug 2007 13:14:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99215</guid>
		<description>I believe that the credit rating expresses the probability of default, with maybe some weighting for loss given default.....or am I mistaken?  But risk is more than default, so you can make a risky security AAA.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I believe that the credit rating expresses the probability of default, with maybe some weighting for loss given default&#8230;..or am I mistaken?  But risk is more than default, so you can make a risky security AAA.</p>
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		<title>By: Twofish</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99214</link>
		<dc:creator>Twofish</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Aug 2007 12:47:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99214</guid>
		<description>Guest: while the models you and twofish use to value CDOs may be sound and blessed by the ratings agencies, no one believes them -- obviously they are not trading...

Because you are in the middle of a classic bank run.  People run for the exits, so everyone runs for the exits.  Right now, I&#039;m looking a little foolish because I&#039;m standing here saying that there isn&#039;t major to worry about while everyone else running past me.

The Time magazine article didn&#039;t mention why junk gets rated as AAA.  What happens is that you have lots of junk, that junk gets split into the really bad parts, but if you take out the really bad parts, then the rest of the stuff is not so bad.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Guest: while the models you and twofish use to value CDOs may be sound and blessed by the ratings agencies, no one believes them &#8212; obviously they are not trading&#8230;</p>
<p>Because you are in the middle of a classic bank run.  People run for the exits, so everyone runs for the exits.  Right now, I&#8217;m looking a little foolish because I&#8217;m standing here saying that there isn&#8217;t major to worry about while everyone else running past me.</p>
<p>The Time magazine article didn&#8217;t mention why junk gets rated as AAA.  What happens is that you have lots of junk, that junk gets split into the really bad parts, but if you take out the really bad parts, then the rest of the stuff is not so bad.</p>
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		<title>By: Stuartt</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99213</link>
		<dc:creator>Stuartt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Aug 2007 11:00:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99213</guid>
		<description>&quot;interesting point on low bid to cover ratio -- agree it seems at odds with monday&#039;s story of massive demand for bills (tuesday was a different story, bills sold off a bit). any ideas what may be going on &quot;

Don&#039;t know.  Who could be a source of demand, yet not considered a direct or indirect buyer?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;interesting point on low bid to cover ratio &#8212; agree it seems at odds with monday&#8217;s story of massive demand for bills (tuesday was a different story, bills sold off a bit). any ideas what may be going on &#8221;</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t know.  Who could be a source of demand, yet not considered a direct or indirect buyer?</p>
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		<title>By: gillies</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99212</link>
		<dc:creator>gillies</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Aug 2007 10:38:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99212</guid>
		<description>the core of the bubble.

beautifully clear diagrams in time magazine show or nearly show how B junkfood investment slices get rated AAA.

we are coming close to the core of the bubble.  if the time magazine reader knows that there is nothing there - there is nothing there. financial complexity requires time and study to understand, but recognition of an empty bubble is both simple and instantaneous.  it is also tends to be self fulfilling.

so i am buying into nouriel roubini&#039;s compelling imagery -

indeed, you don&#039;t know who has been swimming naked until you meet zombie corpses floating in toxic waste.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>the core of the bubble.</p>
<p>beautifully clear diagrams in time magazine show or nearly show how B junkfood investment slices get rated AAA.</p>
<p>we are coming close to the core of the bubble.  if the time magazine reader knows that there is nothing there &#8211; there is nothing there. financial complexity requires time and study to understand, but recognition of an empty bubble is both simple and instantaneous.  it is also tends to be self fulfilling.</p>
<p>so i am buying into nouriel roubini&#8217;s compelling imagery -</p>
<p>indeed, you don&#8217;t know who has been swimming naked until you meet zombie corpses floating in toxic waste.</p>
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		<title>By: bsetser</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99211</link>
		<dc:creator>bsetser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Aug 2007 08:23:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99211</guid>
		<description>interesting point on low bid to cover ratio -- agree it seems at odds with monday&#039;s story of massive demand for bills (tuesday was a different story, bills sold off a bit).  any ideas what may be going on</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>interesting point on low bid to cover ratio &#8212; agree it seems at odds with monday&#8217;s story of massive demand for bills (tuesday was a different story, bills sold off a bit).  any ideas what may be going on</p>
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		<title>By: mpg</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99210</link>
		<dc:creator>mpg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Aug 2007 08:22:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99210</guid>
		<description>I was trying to do some rough calculations.  I wondered what the price tag would be if we all realized everybodies house was overvalued by $50K and it got up and disappeared like Galbrieth&#039;s lap.
I multiplied 20 million by 50K and came up with 1e+12.  Can anyone tell me what 1e+12 means??</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was trying to do some rough calculations.  I wondered what the price tag would be if we all realized everybodies house was overvalued by $50K and it got up and disappeared like Galbrieth&#8217;s lap.<br />
I multiplied 20 million by 50K and came up with 1e+12.  Can anyone tell me what 1e+12 means??</p>
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		<title>By: Guest</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99209</link>
		<dc:creator>Guest</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Aug 2007 05:14:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99209</guid>
		<description>Jeffrey Lacker&#039;s speech yesterday -

http://www.richmondfed.org/news_and_speeches/presidents_speeches/index.cfm/id=102

As usual, the Fed is the exclusive source of reasoned articulation and adult supervision in a time of lemming market panic. The equity market has swallowed the discount rate pill with the glee of a child on a lollipop. There&#039;s little change in the Fed&#039;s outlook for the real economy as of yesterday. A fed funds rate cut is becoming increasingly â€˜uncertain&#039; in the mind of â€˜Mr. Market&#039;, whose brain was destroyed by the volatility of perceived â€˜certainty&#039; a long time ago.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jeffrey Lacker&#8217;s speech yesterday -</p>
<p><a href="http://www.richmondfed.org/news_and_speeches/presidents_speeches/index.cfm/id=102" rel="nofollow">http://www.richmondfed.org/news_and_speeches/presidents_speeches/index.cfm/id=102</a></p>
<p>As usual, the Fed is the exclusive source of reasoned articulation and adult supervision in a time of lemming market panic. The equity market has swallowed the discount rate pill with the glee of a child on a lollipop. There&#8217;s little change in the Fed&#8217;s outlook for the real economy as of yesterday. A fed funds rate cut is becoming increasingly â€˜uncertain&#8217; in the mind of â€˜Mr. Market&#8217;, whose brain was destroyed by the volatility of perceived â€˜certainty&#8217; a long time ago.</p>
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		<title>By: Guest</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99208</link>
		<dc:creator>Guest</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Aug 2007 02:29:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2007/08/20/reverse-engineering-financial-engineering/#comment-99208</guid>
		<description>re: &quot;That &quot;toxic waste&quot; of unpriceable and uncertain junk and zombie corpses is now emerging in the most unlikely places in the financial markets.&quot;

blunt adj., blunt·er, blunt·est. - &quot;Slow to understand or perceive; dull.&quot;

rhetorical, hysterical, obscure and therefore potentially misleading and unhelpful to those seeking meaningful insight - &#039;intelligent thinking&#039; in your view?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>re: &#8220;That &#8220;toxic waste&#8221; of unpriceable and uncertain junk and zombie corpses is now emerging in the most unlikely places in the financial markets.&#8221;</p>
<p>blunt adj., blunt·er, blunt·est. &#8211; &#8220;Slow to understand or perceive; dull.&#8221;</p>
<p>rhetorical, hysterical, obscure and therefore potentially misleading and unhelpful to those seeking meaningful insight &#8211; &#8216;intelligent thinking&#8217; in your view?</p>
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