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	<title>Comments on: SAFE, SWF?</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/</link>
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	<pubDate>Thu, 08 Jan 2009 23:49:54 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Taxpayer</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105359</link>
		<dc:creator>Taxpayer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Feb 2008 19:25:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105359</guid>
		<description>Or to put it another way, we are all riding the same tiger.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Or to put it another way, we are all riding the same tiger.</p>
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		<title>By: Taxpayer</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105358</link>
		<dc:creator>Taxpayer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Feb 2008 19:17:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105358</guid>
		<description>@ Judy Yeo
"there's nothing worse than running out of $ and into debt. Saving up for a rainy day has always been a dictum in Singapore"

That's certainly true, but you can also have too much of a good thing.
When do you know you have enough?
Is this "rainy day" money having unfavorable consequences for others.
I think the point here is that these SWFs and their clones can have a distorting effect on capital markets, taking them further away from the "free market" concept.
In a global market surely we have to consider the wider ramifications rather than just the "national interest".</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Judy Yeo<br />
&#8220;there&#8217;s nothing worse than running out of $ and into debt. Saving up for a rainy day has always been a dictum in Singapore&#8221;</p>
<p>That&#8217;s certainly true, but you can also have too much of a good thing.<br />
When do you know you have enough?<br />
Is this &#8220;rainy day&#8221; money having unfavorable consequences for others.<br />
I think the point here is that these SWFs and their clones can have a distorting effect on capital markets, taking them further away from the &#8220;free market&#8221; concept.<br />
In a global market surely we have to consider the wider ramifications rather than just the &#8220;national interest&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: Twofish</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105357</link>
		<dc:creator>Twofish</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Feb 2008 14:26:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105357</guid>
		<description>Guest: Make no mistake that global goodwill toward the USA took a big hit this weekend re Kosovo - but our managed corporate crony media is not going to sound that alarm.

That's one of the things about being a global hyperpower, you don't have to care what other people think.  US loses global goodwill?  So what?  Unless you can translate that loss into some reward or punishment for the US, no one is going to care.

The primary purpose of the media is to sell newspapers and make money.  You were expecting something different?

As far as Iraq goes, I think that has already been decided.  Unless the US body count goes up then the next President is going to stay.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Guest: Make no mistake that global goodwill toward the USA took a big hit this weekend re Kosovo - but our managed corporate crony media is not going to sound that alarm.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s one of the things about being a global hyperpower, you don&#8217;t have to care what other people think.  US loses global goodwill?  So what?  Unless you can translate that loss into some reward or punishment for the US, no one is going to care.</p>
<p>The primary purpose of the media is to sell newspapers and make money.  You were expecting something different?</p>
<p>As far as Iraq goes, I think that has already been decided.  Unless the US body count goes up then the next President is going to stay.</p>
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		<title>By: Twofish</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105356</link>
		<dc:creator>Twofish</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Feb 2008 14:19:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105356</guid>
		<description>Anonymous: so you are saying that by providing financing to bear stearns and morgan stanley, which in turn are top contributors to hillary's campaign

We can pull up Federal Election Commission reports, but I'd be shocked if the top IB's weren't indirectly also paying money to Obama and any candidate that has a reasonable chance of getting elected.  IB's know that they can't determine who wins an election, and their first priority in making donations is to make sure that whoever does win, returns their phone calls, and at least talks with their lobbyists.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Anonymous: so you are saying that by providing financing to bear stearns and morgan stanley, which in turn are top contributors to hillary&#8217;s campaign</p>
<p>We can pull up Federal Election Commission reports, but I&#8217;d be shocked if the top IB&#8217;s weren&#8217;t indirectly also paying money to Obama and any candidate that has a reasonable chance of getting elected.  IB&#8217;s know that they can&#8217;t determine who wins an election, and their first priority in making donations is to make sure that whoever does win, returns their phone calls, and at least talks with their lobbyists.</p>
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		<title>By: Twofish</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105355</link>
		<dc:creator>Twofish</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Feb 2008 14:07:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105355</guid>
		<description>I'm actually much less optimistic about a Japanese SWF since Japan has had a history of using its postal savings accounts to do all of the nefarious things that people worry about SWF's doing.  The Japanese Postal Savings system is basically the LDP's piggy bank.

Also, I don't see why "democratic" governments are necessarily better at finance or more trustworthy than authoritarian governments.  Elections can often create the illusion of transparency and popular control without actual transparency and popular control, and I would argue that the Politburo of the PRC is far more worried about losing power than most of the people at the highest levels of the Japanese government.

As far as economic issues go, the National People's Congress is far more open, transparent, and powerful in its decision making processes than the Japanese House of Representatives.  The Chinese government talked about CIC for two of three years before actually going through with it, and the politics and the decision making processes were reasonably open.  It will be interesting to see if Japan goes through the same sort of rather public process that China did.

My own belief is that freedom of speech and personal liberty are good things for their own sakes, but one must not get into the habit of thinking that "democrats" are angels that can do no wrong and "dictators" are all devils that can do no right.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m actually much less optimistic about a Japanese SWF since Japan has had a history of using its postal savings accounts to do all of the nefarious things that people worry about SWF&#8217;s doing.  The Japanese Postal Savings system is basically the LDP&#8217;s piggy bank.</p>
<p>Also, I don&#8217;t see why &#8220;democratic&#8221; governments are necessarily better at finance or more trustworthy than authoritarian governments.  Elections can often create the illusion of transparency and popular control without actual transparency and popular control, and I would argue that the Politburo of the PRC is far more worried about losing power than most of the people at the highest levels of the Japanese government.</p>
<p>As far as economic issues go, the National People&#8217;s Congress is far more open, transparent, and powerful in its decision making processes than the Japanese House of Representatives.  The Chinese government talked about CIC for two of three years before actually going through with it, and the politics and the decision making processes were reasonably open.  It will be interesting to see if Japan goes through the same sort of rather public process that China did.</p>
<p>My own belief is that freedom of speech and personal liberty are good things for their own sakes, but one must not get into the habit of thinking that &#8220;democrats&#8221; are angels that can do no wrong and &#8220;dictators&#8221; are all devils that can do no right.</p>
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		<title>By: bsetser</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105354</link>
		<dc:creator>bsetser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Feb 2008 05:50:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105354</guid>
		<description>Judy -- my sense is that the Japanese SWF will be quite transparent, and will work within investment guidelines set by a democratically elected parliament.  i worry a bit about its size, but if it is:

transparent;
works within democratically established guidelines;
and steers clear of direct stakes

I won't be too worried.

It will tho have to address the delicate issue of investing in companies abroad that compete against big japanese companies</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Judy &#8212; my sense is that the Japanese SWF will be quite transparent, and will work within investment guidelines set by a democratically elected parliament.  i worry a bit about its size, but if it is:</p>
<p>transparent;<br />
works within democratically established guidelines;<br />
and steers clear of direct stakes</p>
<p>I won&#8217;t be too worried.</p>
<p>It will tho have to address the delicate issue of investing in companies abroad that compete against big japanese companies</p>
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		<title>By: Guest</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105353</link>
		<dc:creator>Guest</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Feb 2008 20:09:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105353</guid>
		<description>On both sides of the Atlantic, there is a good deal of paranoia - understandable, if not necessarily justifiable. But once these geopolitical anxieties are subtracted, these very wealthy funds are no different to other investors trying to spot value others may have not yet spotted. If this is the case, these funds should now be questioning the timing of their investment decisions.

After all, their performance is hardly impressive. They have spent $60bn on stakes in US and European banks and are all showing a 10 per cent or so paper loss. Abu Dhabi invested $7.5bn in a stake in Citigroup that is worth about $6bn. Kuwait has lost around 8 per cent on the $6.6bn it invested in Merrill Lynch. And so on.

The simple conclusion is that all these funds are no smarter than anyone else in picking the right moment to buy. Since they all claim they are investing for the long term, they can clearly afford to take their short-term losses on the chin. Even so, they cannot be too pleased. The question is whether this will make them more assertive, something that is bound to worry policy makers and politicians. But would an activist be any different?---Financial Times

Too bad for us if SWFs stop buying. Where will the money come from to stave off bankruptcies?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On both sides of the Atlantic, there is a good deal of paranoia - understandable, if not necessarily justifiable. But once these geopolitical anxieties are subtracted, these very wealthy funds are no different to other investors trying to spot value others may have not yet spotted. If this is the case, these funds should now be questioning the timing of their investment decisions.</p>
<p>After all, their performance is hardly impressive. They have spent $60bn on stakes in US and European banks and are all showing a 10 per cent or so paper loss. Abu Dhabi invested $7.5bn in a stake in Citigroup that is worth about $6bn. Kuwait has lost around 8 per cent on the $6.6bn it invested in Merrill Lynch. And so on.</p>
<p>The simple conclusion is that all these funds are no smarter than anyone else in picking the right moment to buy. Since they all claim they are investing for the long term, they can clearly afford to take their short-term losses on the chin. Even so, they cannot be too pleased. The question is whether this will make them more assertive, something that is bound to worry policy makers and politicians. But would an activist be any different?&#8212;Financial Times</p>
<p>Too bad for us if SWFs stop buying. Where will the money come from to stave off bankruptcies?</p>
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		<title>By: Judy Yeo</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105352</link>
		<dc:creator>Judy Yeo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Feb 2008 18:52:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105352</guid>
		<description>Brad, heard about Japan's serious effort to establish a SWF? Cause for joy or sorrow? Doubt the Japanese would be more amendable to greater transparency ;)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brad, heard about Japan&#8217;s serious effort to establish a SWF? Cause for joy or sorrow? Doubt the Japanese would be more amendable to greater transparency <img src='http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';)' class='wp-smiley' /></p>
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		<title>By: Twofish</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105351</link>
		<dc:creator>Twofish</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Feb 2008 12:59:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105351</guid>
		<description>Guest: What do the politicos do for them that they would not do without being paid?

Return phone calls.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Guest: What do the politicos do for them that they would not do without being paid?</p>
<p>Return phone calls.</p>
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		<title>By: Guest</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105350</link>
		<dc:creator>Guest</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Feb 2008 10:14:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/02/18/safe-swf/#comment-105350</guid>
		<description>I think the Iraq and now Kosovo fiascos reveal the United States government as totally corrupt and quite possibly mad. Make no mistake that global goodwill toward the USA took a big hit this weekend re Kosovo - but our managed corporate crony media is not going to sound that alarm.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think the Iraq and now Kosovo fiascos reveal the United States government as totally corrupt and quite possibly mad. Make no mistake that global goodwill toward the USA took a big hit this weekend re Kosovo - but our managed corporate crony media is not going to sound that alarm.</p>
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