Comments on: The 2007 US current account data http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/ Thu, 14 Oct 2010 13:09:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106613 Guest Sun, 30 Mar 2008 20:43:19 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106613 disgrunted observer - the US is responsible for killing 25 million people since the end of WW2. a genicide only matched by Adolf Hitler. Only current war in iraq has lead to several millions of lives lost. and you are talking of china crimes - pathetic... disgrunted observer – the US is responsible for killing 25 million people since the end of WW2. a genicide only matched by Adolf Hitler. Only current war in iraq has lead to several millions of lives lost.

and you are talking of china crimes – pathetic…

]]> By: disgruntled observer http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106612 disgruntled observer Sun, 30 Mar 2008 14:52:12 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106612 Dr Setser. I understand that this forum is economic, but if you'll allow me to just make a brief point to Dave Chiang. DC. Whatever the US's sins and there are many, there is no excuse for what is happening to Tibet. And I don't just refer to the current repression. Eradicating a culture that was/is peaceful and harmonious is a monumental crime, no matter how you put it. If the people of china have an excuse its propaganda driven ignorance (I hope). You however live in the US, with the same access to information that I have, so you have no excuse peddling such views. Shame on you! Dr Setser. I understand that this forum is economic, but if you’ll allow me to just make a brief point to Dave Chiang.

DC.

Whatever the US’s sins and there are many, there is no excuse for what is happening to Tibet. And I don’t just refer to the current repression. Eradicating a culture that was/is peaceful and harmonious is a monumental crime, no matter how you put it. If the people of china have an excuse its propaganda driven ignorance (I hope). You however live in the US, with the same access to information that I have, so you have no excuse peddling such views. Shame on you!

]]> By: DC http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106611 DC Sun, 30 Mar 2008 09:41:16 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106611 Perhaps Hillary should ask her husband about US Aircraft Carriers off China's coast along the Taiwan Straits to bomb Beijing, not the other way around. Chinese warships have never been deployed to California. - DC Clinton says China threaten US National security http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=106847 Clinton cited a discussion she had with a retired general who raised a "nightmare scenario" in which China threatened Taiwan and the U.S. president wanted to send ships toward the island to ward off Beijing. "He said, 'You know, suppose the Chinese decide that they're going to go after Taiwan the way we see them, you know, with Tibet,"' Clinton said, describing the general's remarks and referring to the recent unrest in Tibet. "'We start to move the fleet, and the Chinese say, 'Fine. You do that, we will dump your dollars. We will flood the market. We will not buy any more of your debt."' Perhaps Hillary should ask her husband about US Aircraft Carriers off China’s coast along the Taiwan Straits to bomb Beijing, not the other way around. Chinese warships have never been deployed to California. – DC

Clinton says China threaten US National security
http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=106847

Clinton cited a discussion she had with a retired general who raised a “nightmare scenario” in which China threatened Taiwan and the U.S. president wanted to send ships toward the island to ward off Beijing.

“He said, ‘You know, suppose the Chinese decide that they’re going to go after Taiwan the way we see them, you know, with Tibet,”‘ Clinton said, describing the general’s remarks and referring to the recent unrest in Tibet.

“‘We start to move the fleet, and the Chinese say, ‘Fine. You do that, we will dump your dollars. We will flood the market. We will not buy any more of your debt.”‘

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106610 Guest Sun, 30 Mar 2008 07:30:56 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106610 @Guest "Allan Meltzer, a professor of political economy . . . " http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080330/pl_afp/useconomybankbankingregulatemarkets_080330035232 I couldn't reach the article you mentioned with your link - this may work. Guest @Guest
“Allan Meltzer, a professor of political economy . . . ”

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080330/pl_afp/useconomybankbankingregulatemarkets_080330035232

I couldn’t reach the article you mentioned with your link – this may work.

Guest

]]> By: bsetser http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106609 bsetser Sun, 30 Mar 2008 06:22:19 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106609 Livingston -- using the revised data (with a different income balance) the US current account deficit peaked at around 6.5% (in its peak quarter) and was 6.1% for a year (06). it is now around 5%. That is an important improvement, but the pace of improvement in the trade balance seems to have stalled b/c of higher oil prices. Oil alone will add about $100b to the trade deficit this year if prices stay around $100. i am not sure the non-oil balance will improve enough to offset that, tho it is possible if the us economy remains weak. Livingston — using the revised data (with a different income balance) the US current account deficit peaked at around 6.5% (in its peak quarter) and was 6.1% for a year (06). it is now around 5%. That is an important improvement, but the pace of improvement in the trade balance seems to have stalled b/c of higher oil prices. Oil alone will add about $100b to the trade deficit this year if prices stay around $100. i am not sure the non-oil balance will improve enough to offset that, tho it is possible if the us economy remains weak.

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106608 Guest Sun, 30 Mar 2008 04:11:48 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106608 http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080330/bs_afp/useconomybankbankingregulatemarkets_080330035232;_ylt=AmtyDrjLSNd0E4Q6kKBuZzSmOrgF Allan Meltzer, a professor of political economy at Carnegie Mellon University, says the Fed agreement to guarantee 29 billion dollars in troubled Bear Stearns assets was a mistake. "This action transferred potential losses from the market to the taxpayers," he said. "I do not believe the present system can remain if the bankers make the profits and the taxpayers share the losses." http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080330/bs_afp/useconomybankbankingregulatemarkets_080330035232;_ylt=AmtyDrjLSNd0E4Q6kKBuZzSmOrgF

Allan Meltzer, a professor of political economy at Carnegie Mellon University, says the Fed agreement to guarantee 29 billion dollars in troubled Bear Stearns assets was a mistake.

“This action transferred potential losses from the market to the taxpayers,” he said. “I do not believe the present system can remain if the bankers make the profits and the taxpayers share the losses.”

]]> By: Anonymous http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106607 Anonymous Sun, 30 Mar 2008 03:54:33 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106607 "With 2008 touted as the Golden Age for distressed investing, the Asian distressed debt market is expected to experience explosive growth as the region's default rates pick up from record lows and the market comes of age on a world stage. Asia is a goldmine, but the road to creating a robust Asian distressed debt market is a challenging one of negotiating complex legal regimes and overcoming transparency issues and cultural barriers. Distressed Debt Asia 2008 will bring together distressed debt investors, bankers, lawyers, restructuring advisors and consultants to discuss where the growth will come from, the legal and regulatory developments and changing profile of the distressed debt investor..." http://www.euromoneyplc.com/product.asp?PositionID=3660&ProductID=9141&PageID=393 “With 2008 touted as the Golden Age for distressed investing, the Asian distressed debt market is expected to experience explosive growth as the region’s default rates pick up from record lows and the market comes of age on a world stage. Asia is a goldmine, but the road to creating a robust Asian distressed debt market is a challenging one of negotiating complex legal regimes and overcoming transparency issues and cultural barriers. Distressed Debt Asia 2008 will bring together distressed debt investors, bankers, lawyers, restructuring advisors and consultants to discuss where the growth will come from, the legal and regulatory developments and changing profile of the distressed debt investor…” http://www.euromoneyplc.com/product.asp?PositionID=3660&ProductID=9141&PageID=393

]]> By: Anonymous http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106606 Anonymous Sun, 30 Mar 2008 00:08:24 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106606 "The only countries that have been able to manage to stay afloat" ? "While everyone in Europe is high fiving their currency and hoping to become a reserve currency" ? what's a euro, or a soybean worth? http://www.futuresmag.com/cms/futures/pdf/FM_SourceBook_Exchanges.pdf "...My Peking University students tell me that they waste two or three hours a day more than they used to trying to access information on the internet. When I ask them why it has become so difficult, they tell me that there are a lot more things now that the government doesn't want them to know... there is a tendency for Chinese corporations to project past price moves indefinitely into the future. For example soy prices have risen pretty steadily over the past few years, but every time there is a temporary reversal we get an onslaught of bankruptcies among Chinese soy pressers who took massive long forward positions on the assumption that rising prices can only keep rising... Should the dollar ever reverse part of its weakness (which I think is not only highly likely but nearly inevitable), Chinese exporters are going to get killed as the RMB strengthens against the dollar and the dollar strengthens against the euro..." http://piaohaoreport.sampasite.com/blog/Damned-firewall.htm “The only countries that have been able to manage to stay afloat” ?

“While everyone in Europe is high fiving their currency and hoping to become a reserve currency” ?

what’s a euro, or a soybean worth? http://www.futuresmag.com/cms/futures/pdf/FM_SourceBook_Exchanges.pdf

“…My Peking University students tell me that they waste two or three hours a day more than they used to trying to access information on the internet. When I ask them why it has become so difficult, they tell me that there are a lot more things now that the government doesn’t want them to know… there is a tendency for Chinese corporations to project past price moves indefinitely into the future. For example soy prices have risen pretty steadily over the past few years, but every time there is a temporary reversal we get an onslaught of bankruptcies among Chinese soy pressers who took massive long forward positions on the assumption that rising prices can only keep rising… Should the dollar ever reverse part of its weakness (which I think is not only highly likely but nearly inevitable), Chinese exporters are going to get killed as the RMB strengthens against the dollar and the dollar strengthens against the euro…” http://piaohaoreport.sampasite.com/blog/Damned-firewall.htm

]]> By: DC http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106605 DC Sat, 29 Mar 2008 14:23:03 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106605 Let be honest that dirty politics are inseparable from economics. - DC Why China is an "extremely hated" nation along the Washington DC beltway by Justin Raimondo http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=12585 Americans and their international amen corner are daring to criticize China for preserving its own unity and sovereignty. It's a double standard made all the more insufferable by the self-righteous tone of the anti-China chorus, whose meistersingers are mainly concerned with celebrating their own moral purity. Let be honest that dirty politics are inseparable from economics. – DC

Why China is an “extremely hated” nation along the Washington DC beltway
by Justin Raimondo
http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=12585

Americans and their international amen corner are daring to criticize China for preserving its own unity and sovereignty. It’s a double standard made all the more insufferable by the self-righteous tone of the anti-China chorus, whose meistersingers are mainly concerned with celebrating their own moral purity.

]]> By: livingston http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106604 livingston Sat, 29 Mar 2008 12:41:01 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/03/27/the-2007-us-current-account-data/#comment-106604 Brad -- current account deficit down from 7% of GDP to 5% of GDP would construe as being down. In addition, it is all structural because this time around there is no difference between structural and cyclical. Due to high level of consumer debt, which is a strutural problem for the economy, in the current contraction overall rate of consumption as a percentage of GDP will do down back to the 60s from 72%. Therefore, in the current go around, the reduction in imports due to reduction in consumption would qualify as structural as it is not coming back even if the economy starts to grow back again. Probably not a very important point for the current discussion but worth noting. My key point in posting the response was that while every one is worried about inflation, they ought to worry about deflation. From the point of view of economic history, first the Japanese bubble flooded capital into Asia leading to the Asian crisis. Then the Asian crisis released deflationary pressures that was cushioned by the increase in debt financed consumption in the US, which came at the expense of US housing, consumer debt and now vulnerable currency. All of it probably aggravated by the policy mistakes of the Fed, in their efforts to singlehandedly save the world from deflation. When the current US crisis creates the same pressures -- turning consumers into massive savers -- there is no other economy large enough to pick up the slack. EM consumption, the only potential candidate, is going up but is way too small overall to sop up the increase in global production. Forgetting about financial markets for a second, the problem with the world right now is that investments have rocketed in the EM world and there is not enough consumption growth in those markets and in Japan. It causes massive amounts of flows in good and services, which then lead to massive amount of financial flows, which causes stresses. We are moving from one set of victims to another. First it was Asia as the victim. Now it is the US. Next it will be Europe with its expensive currency. While everyone in Europe is high fiving their currency and hoping to become a reserve currency, give it a few years and they will face the same fate as of the dollar. It is just a matter of time. The only countries that have been able to manage to stay afloat are the controlled exchange rate regimes -- China and India. More free an economy with minimal policy controls, more vulnerable you are in this sort of a framework. Brad — current account deficit down from 7% of GDP to 5% of GDP would construe as being down. In addition, it is all structural because this time around there is no difference between structural and cyclical. Due to high level of consumer debt, which is a strutural problem for the economy, in the current contraction overall rate of consumption as a percentage of GDP will do down back to the 60s from 72%. Therefore, in the current go around, the reduction in imports due to reduction in consumption would qualify as structural as it is not coming back even if the economy starts to grow back again. Probably not a very important point for the current discussion but worth noting. My key point in posting the response was that while every one is worried about inflation, they ought to worry about deflation. From the point of view of economic history, first the Japanese bubble flooded capital into Asia leading to the Asian crisis. Then the Asian crisis released deflationary pressures that was cushioned by the increase in debt financed consumption in the US, which came at the expense of US housing, consumer debt and now vulnerable currency. All of it probably aggravated by the policy mistakes of the Fed, in their efforts to singlehandedly save the world from deflation. When the current US crisis creates the same pressures — turning consumers into massive savers — there is no other economy large enough to pick up the slack. EM consumption, the only potential candidate, is going up but is way too small overall to sop up the increase in global production. Forgetting about financial markets for a second, the problem with the world right now is that investments have rocketed in the EM world and there is not enough consumption growth in those markets and in Japan. It causes massive amounts of flows in good and services, which then lead to massive amount of financial flows, which causes stresses. We are moving from one set of victims to another. First it was Asia as the victim. Now it is the US. Next it will be Europe with its expensive currency. While everyone in Europe is high fiving their currency and hoping to become a reserve currency, give it a few years and they will face the same fate as of the dollar. It is just a matter of time. The only countries that have been able to manage to stay afloat are the controlled exchange rate regimes — China and India. More free an economy with minimal policy controls, more vulnerable you are in this sort of a framework.

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