Comments on: Managing China’s real appreciation http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/ Thu, 14 Oct 2010 13:09:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107408 Guest Mon, 05 May 2008 18:26:39 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107408 perhaps you read the wrong book guest, but she, Chua, also argued, any such control was tenuous, at best. Anyone who lives in the region, as I do will note movements, that do not highlight the US at the center of some containment, yet movements from Japan, SK down to Indo and across to India, where China curries favor from Burma to Pak and Sri Lanka. This is a purely Asian effort, whether America is allied with Japan or not, like in Vietnam, the American war takes abcakseat to a thousand years of Chinese domination, and Japanese war transgression are far less relevant in this light than they migh be in China. This is not the Evil American empire, this is a practical, relevant strategy to counter historical Chinese domination. Where the case of Tibet is relevant, on the grounds as stated, it also might be that many smaller regional nations could be subsumed by such logic from the Chinese, Not that the Chinese would use similar logic to deprive commonly accepted soveriegn nations of their soveriegnty, but historical Chinese domination in the region would demand some counter to that weight, and is in their interest of nations to develop it. No need for an American conspiracy theory here, nations need only rely on their history.<br><br> perhaps you read the wrong book guest, but she, Chua, also argued, any such control was tenuous, at best. Anyone who lives in the region, as I do will note movements, that do not highlight the US at the center of some containment, yet movements from Japan, SK down to Indo and across to India, where China curries favor from Burma to Pak and Sri Lanka. This is a purely Asian effort, whether America is allied with Japan or not, like in Vietnam, the American war takes abcakseat to a thousand years of Chinese domination, and Japanese war transgression are far less relevant in this light than they migh be in China. This is not the Evil American empire, this is a practical, relevant strategy to counter historical Chinese domination. Where the case of Tibet is relevant, on the grounds as stated, it also might be that many smaller regional nations could be subsumed by such logic from the Chinese, Not that the Chinese would use similar logic to deprive commonly accepted soveriegn nations of their soveriegnty, but historical Chinese domination in the region would demand some counter to that weight, and is in their interest of nations to develop it. No need for an American conspiracy theory here, nations need only rely on their history.

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107407 Guest Mon, 05 May 2008 13:06:06 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107407 Give up their culture? Well Jews in Hollywood had to disguise their Jewishness or thought they did, but that hardly changed the fact that Hollywood was primarily Jewish. Local elites control things along with Chinese elites? Chua never said Chinese controlled everything. But their control is crucial and striking. The percentages cited in the BBC story I referred to earlier are clear on that point. SE Asia is not unique. Portugal was economically largely under British control until recently. The Port wine companies, the transport companies, the telephone company, etc., were all British controlled and run. Give up their culture? Well Jews in Hollywood had to disguise their Jewishness or thought they did, but that hardly changed the fact that Hollywood was primarily Jewish. Local elites control things along with Chinese elites? Chua never said Chinese controlled everything. But their control is crucial and striking. The percentages cited in the BBC story I referred to earlier are clear on that point. SE Asia is not unique. Portugal was economically largely under British control until recently. The Port wine companies, the transport companies, the telephone company, etc., were all British controlled and run.

]]> By: Judy Yeo http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107406 Judy Yeo Mon, 05 May 2008 12:14:15 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107406 Control of the economies of SE Asia is probably large brush strokes, large enough to paint over the fact that much of those Chinese minorities are living similar lives at similar standards to ethnic majorities. The example most often cited by writers such as Amy Chua is Indonesia, but if you visit Indonesia or are familiar with its situation, the number of ethnic Indonesians (non-Chinese) who control industries vitalto the economy aren't exactly that much smaller than Chinese Indonesians; it's a feature of the Suharto era that concentration of power was in the hands of a few , and those few comprised both Chinese and non-Chinese, just a matter of politics and power going hand-in-hand rather than any ethnic bias. Visit any Chinatown in SE Asia and you'll find plenty of local Chinese living very ordinary lives , far from any significant corridors of power. Singapore is an exception not merely 'cos the Chinese formed a majority from the early days of independence but also because of its meritocratic principles. Control of the economies of SE Asia is probably large brush strokes, large enough to paint over the fact that much of those Chinese minorities are living similar lives at similar standards to ethnic majorities. The example most often cited by writers such as Amy Chua is Indonesia, but if you visit Indonesia or are familiar with its situation, the number of ethnic Indonesians (non-Chinese) who control industries vitalto the economy aren’t exactly that much smaller than Chinese Indonesians; it’s a feature of the Suharto era that concentration of power was in the hands of a few , and those few comprised both Chinese and non-Chinese, just a matter of politics and power going hand-in-hand rather than any ethnic bias. Visit any Chinatown in SE Asia and you’ll find plenty of local Chinese living very ordinary lives , far from any significant corridors of power. Singapore is an exception not merely ‘cos the Chinese formed a majority from the early days of independence but also because of its meritocratic principles.

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107405 Guest Mon, 05 May 2008 11:31:07 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107405 Twofish was wrong when he denied that ethnic Chinese control the economies of SE Asia. Written by Guest on 2008-05-05 02:15:29<br><br><br><br>Guest: have you heard about the "positive discrimination" policies in Malaysia? That's part of SE Asia as far as I know! Not to be snide, but in certain SE Asian countries, control over industries started off with Chinese willingness to take risks and has come with the price of being forced to give up more salient features of their culture; be those Chinese names, language or culture, is that real control? Debatable don't you think?<br><br> Twofish was wrong when he denied that ethnic Chinese control the economies of SE Asia. Written by Guest on 2008-05-05 02:15:29

Guest: have you heard about the "positive discrimination" policies in Malaysia? That’s part of SE Asia as far as I know! Not to be snide, but in certain SE Asian countries, control over industries started off with Chinese willingness to take risks and has come with the price of being forced to give up more salient features of their culture; be those Chinese names, language or culture, is that real control? Debatable don’t you think?

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107404 Guest Mon, 05 May 2008 07:15:29 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107404 Judy: No I am not Chinese. But my point was that Twofish was wrong when he denied that ethnic Chinese control the economies of SE Asia. This may have caused many problems, etc., I don't doubt that, but that was not the issue. The issue was the fact of Chinese dominance. I further think that the Japanese/US alliance is not rock solid and that either the US could desert Japan or Japan decide it would be wiser to cooperate with, rather than oppose, China and that would make the US alliance unnecessary. I doubt the US will remain a major player in the Far East forever. Judy: No I am not Chinese. But my point was that Twofish was wrong when he denied that ethnic Chinese control the economies of SE Asia. This may have caused many problems, etc., I don’t doubt that, but that was not the issue. The issue was the fact of Chinese dominance. I further think that the Japanese/US alliance is not rock solid and that either the US could desert Japan or Japan decide it would be wiser to cooperate with, rather than oppose, China and that would make the US alliance unnecessary. I doubt the US will remain a major player in the Far East forever.

]]> By: Judy Yeo http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107403 Judy Yeo Sun, 04 May 2008 10:04:02 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107403 Brad, <br><br>it's just a guess of someone who doesn't know a lot ( the story of my life) but chances are the Chinese government will adopt a 3 prong movement; high interest rates (which ironically worsens the hot money problem), gradual appreciation and price controls/subsidies. Could we see a very ironic situation develop - where local speculative flows are locked in, hot money then becomes the most vulnerable to a bust up scenario, should the government then do a volte face and impose capital controls overnight, speculative flows might well be caught in a really hard place. <br><br><br><br>The Chinese government was praised for not devaluing in the face of the asian crisis, this may well show a propensity for adopting inaction where there are doubts or an immeasurable balance of pros and cons. <br><br><br><br>Written by Guest on 2008-05-03 15:57:45<br><br>Thanks for the Amy Chua reference. She was the source I was seeking for the info to refute Twofish. She makes it clear that the Chinese minorities (not the Indian) in SE Asia control in effect the economies of those nations.<br><br><br><br>I seriously doubt if you are Chinese or at least a chinese who's ever lived in that part of the world for a significant amount of time. What you've just said is a very touchy issue which has brought more grief to the chinese in those regions than foreigners can imagine. Everytime there's economic or social turmoil, the Chinese minorities are targetted, you don't need to look too far back in history to know that, 97/98 provides enough examples. As for Japanese containment of the Chinese "threat" history is full of those attempts for example, in the 19th and 20th<br><br>centuries policies and outright war all aimed at "reducing" the threat of the Chinese were adopted. Incidentally, in the former colonial territories in SE Asia, the Japanese implemented "divide and conquer" principles during the war and occupation, which only worsened the social divide. No prizes for guessing which ethnic minorities were the most targetted. That might well explain why American- Japanese alliances breed unease in the region, as long as Japan doesn't dispel suspicions (for example, recognise in full its militaristic past ) they will remain targets of paranoia in every dispute. Brad,

it’s just a guess of someone who doesn’t know a lot ( the story of my life) but chances are the Chinese government will adopt a 3 prong movement; high interest rates (which ironically worsens the hot money problem), gradual appreciation and price controls/subsidies. Could we see a very ironic situation develop – where local speculative flows are locked in, hot money then becomes the most vulnerable to a bust up scenario, should the government then do a volte face and impose capital controls overnight, speculative flows might well be caught in a really hard place.

The Chinese government was praised for not devaluing in the face of the asian crisis, this may well show a propensity for adopting inaction where there are doubts or an immeasurable balance of pros and cons.

Written by Guest on 2008-05-03 15:57:45

Thanks for the Amy Chua reference. She was the source I was seeking for the info to refute Twofish. She makes it clear that the Chinese minorities (not the Indian) in SE Asia control in effect the economies of those nations.

I seriously doubt if you are Chinese or at least a chinese who’s ever lived in that part of the world for a significant amount of time. What you’ve just said is a very touchy issue which has brought more grief to the chinese in those regions than foreigners can imagine. Everytime there’s economic or social turmoil, the Chinese minorities are targetted, you don’t need to look too far back in history to know that, 97/98 provides enough examples. As for Japanese containment of the Chinese "threat" history is full of those attempts for example, in the 19th and 20th

centuries policies and outright war all aimed at "reducing" the threat of the Chinese were adopted. Incidentally, in the former colonial territories in SE Asia, the Japanese implemented "divide and conquer" principles during the war and occupation, which only worsened the social divide. No prizes for guessing which ethnic minorities were the most targetted. That might well explain why American- Japanese alliances breed unease in the region, as long as Japan doesn’t dispel suspicions (for example, recognise in full its militaristic past ) they will remain targets of paranoia in every dispute.

]]> By: JB http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107402 JB Sun, 04 May 2008 04:07:46 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107402 It will be interesting, from a historical and political perspective, to see China make its final move to democracy (a.k.a. capitalism) by allowing a true floating exchange rate. Jeez....globalization makes one country's economic analysis look simple. It will be interesting, from a historical and political perspective, to see China make its final move to democracy (a.k.a. capitalism) by allowing a true floating exchange rate. Jeez….globalization makes one country’s economic analysis look simple.

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107401 Guest Sat, 03 May 2008 20:57:45 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107401 Thanks for the Amy Chua reference. She was the source I was seeking for the info to refute Twofish. She makes it clear that the Chinese minorities (not the Indian) in SE Asia control in effect the economies of those nations. As for DC, I see nothing he needs apologize for. Japan won't get very far "containing" China, nor will the USA. So they might as well forget about it. Won't and can't happen. Thanks for the Amy Chua reference. She was the source I was seeking for the info to refute Twofish. She makes it clear that the Chinese minorities (not the Indian) in SE Asia control in effect the economies of those nations. As for DC, I see nothing he needs apologize for. Japan won’t get very far "containing" China, nor will the USA. So they might as well forget about it. Won’t and can’t happen.

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107400 Guest Sat, 03 May 2008 07:41:19 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107400 Dave:<br><br><br><br>Ever hear of expropriation and read Amy Chua's "World on Fire". Perhaps, you should. You are a disappointing example of an Overseas Chinese who does little service to the interests of China. You should watch yourself. You seem not to have acquired the best that your culture has to offer. Attitudes like this is why, not whether, there has been moves in the region to contain China (and not by the US so don't start ranting), and were these same attitudes to be spoken more loudly (by domestic Chinese) there would be a serious problem for China in the offing. You should listen to yourself. Dave:

Ever hear of expropriation and read Amy Chua’s "World on Fire". Perhaps, you should. You are a disappointing example of an Overseas Chinese who does little service to the interests of China. You should watch yourself. You seem not to have acquired the best that your culture has to offer. Attitudes like this is why, not whether, there has been moves in the region to contain China (and not by the US so don’t start ranting), and were these same attitudes to be spoken more loudly (by domestic Chinese) there would be a serious problem for China in the offing. You should listen to yourself.

]]> By: Guest http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107399 Guest Fri, 02 May 2008 18:40:55 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/05/01/managing-chinas-real-appreciation/#comment-107399 This should dispel any notion that the Chinese are not ousting the US from the SE Asia region. They are. Further, although this is of course opinion, I have no doubt that the rest of Asia will increasingly fall under Chinese influence, especially as US economi power declines and its will to empire fades. SE Asia is NOT a vital US interest. It is a VITAL Chinese interest.<br><br><br><br>http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/2920211.html This should dispel any notion that the Chinese are not ousting the US from the SE Asia region. They are. Further, although this is of course opinion, I have no doubt that the rest of Asia will increasingly fall under Chinese influence, especially as US economi power declines and its will to empire fades. SE Asia is NOT a vital US interest. It is a VITAL Chinese interest.

http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/2920211.html

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