As a gloss on Rien’s comment, I’d have to agree that the applied mathematics, or economic theory, or observed behaviour, or whatever make for no great explanatory power in dealing with sovereigns. They have their own epidemiologies and pathologies.

For Koteli, I thought donkey hawking had been banned from Marrakech, too much crap for too little return, and they took up space from the real business of taking money from rich foreigners. Which leads me to consider some metaphors….

M

Few understand the interconnectivity of the wage and debt economy. Few now appreciate the severity of the coming implosion which will exponentialize in a nonlinear fashion over the next 17-19 weeks. Equity and commodity asset valuations will rotationally and later synchronously decline in value. Money will flow into US debt instruments with a profound drop in interest rates. Even most pessimistic speculators look no further than profits to be made in a cascading, debt defaulting, massive asset devaluation environment. While there is consideration of nationalization of the GSE’s 4-6 trillion dollar mortgage debt industry, rapid nationalization of much of the private and local governmental economy may be necessary to preserve social order as nonessential jobs rapidly disappear and as community and state tax bases are unable to support the manpower needed for the likely security risks at these local levels. Just as the bankrupt GM defaulted on its health benefit promises to its retirees, so too may the US government default on its fiscally impossible promises to its entitlement beneficiaries – and decades sooner than predicted by the past Comptroller General of the United States. The US dollar after falling in a 12/30/24/18-19 X/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6 monthly Lammert fractal series is at another critical area with a 26/64 of 65-68 day x/2.5x (averaged) day first and second fractal series with a nonlinear drop expected during the terminal 21-24 July 08 second fractal time frame. This corresponds to a likely final secondary high in the Swiss Franc and in gold with the likely final secondary high in oil. The other western and eastern economies and their associated fiat currencies which are at historical highs with respect to the dollar are undergoing and will undergo implosion at the consumer level. The US guarantees on savings deposits of up to 100.000 may provide the seed corn monetary base for new American banks to begin the private credit cycle again after a protracted depression. Over the next 17-19 weeks, US treasuries will approach zero in yield and the US ten year bond less than 2 percent in yield.

It should say

The ten “trillion” debt man

It’s been a long time keeping myself silent while reading all your posts.

Congratulations, for a good post following the foreigners money.

But I have lots of buts about your work… Where is Japan in your map? Or they don’t manage any money?

Piss-takers, using MM words, could change a lot in an ideal world, but where is US of A, and playing what in this game?

I’m very pleased that your ex-boss is talking about the economic frame of the USA, not just about recession.

About a year ago, Bruce Springsteen was singing in Bilbao and in the middle of a great concert he asked pardon for being in USA under Bush presidiency, wars and injustice.

Two days ago he was singing in San Sebastian in front of 40.000 people, he just stopped singing for two minutes to say that next song would be “Living in the future” and to ask to everybody in perfect spanish “fight for your civil rights, fight, please”.

Now that your ex-boss Nouriel Roubini is clearly speaking his mind, after years of being laugh at, I think it’s about the time that a Kansas man like you should speak his mind more openly.

And be thankful of having the best ambassador of the USA in a very famous singer like Bruce Springsteen, singing for three hours while giving his best in front of foreign people in a measure that makes anyone think that if we were able to work as he does, this world would be a very different place to live in.

As you are working in the Council of Foreing Relations, I give a very important reference to remember in next years about the opinion of USA people in foreign countries.

Few times we feel in our skin songs like “Because the night belong to lovers, belong to us” with so much strength…

The ten million debt man is a sheet of president you voted for with a little help of US of A justice system and some military help.

The world doesn’t finish in China or the Gulf. The toxic waste of USA spread across the world has been a milestone in economic history.

The Fed’s 2% policy is bringing to starvation and death lots of millions of people in this little world.

But, with a big sorry, Apple is running out of iPhones made in China, in the middle of the summer! What a disaster, DC should be scratching his face under the disaster of American Hegemony…

Maybe, it’s about the time to say to the people when the next kick in the balls will come in US economy. And who are the directors of the kick!

But don’t worry, they will speak about arabs in very distant lands inflating the gallon of gas…

Between piss-takers and piss-makers could be done a clear arrangement, but where is the sheriff?

This little monkey going out would have less value than a donkey in Marrakesh square

Maybe, it’s about the time for the ruskies and Grazprom to stablish a serious business capitalist model in US of A

Time will tell

Good morning

By Li Yanping
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aU.5T8v.MBj0&refer=asia

July 18 (Bloomberg) — China’s top economic planning agency said it tightened scrutiny of foreign direct investment to prevent fake ventures that are being used to channel speculative capital “endangering” the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Money is flowing in through sham joint ventures, fake investments and shell companies, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement on its Web site today.

To contact the reporters on this story: Li Yanping in Beijing at yli16@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: July 18, 2008 05:20 EDT

I would have guessed the USD content of most of these SWFs to be much closer to the corresponding central banks’ ratio…

One significant dynamic interests me. SWFs and such are developing their portfolios with similar aims as other funds would, but without the fundamental pressure to maximize the short term value of their own stock. Real returns on their portfolio aught to be more interesting that the fluctuation in the stock value of their investments.

It’s like with butter, cream or whipped cream; the net fat content is the same.
While I’m sure it is galling to have the calculated value of your portfolio decrease, it does not matter in the same way as it would for a publicly traded fund where the goal is to maximize the perceived value of its own stock. Only the real returns are significant.

(Oh, and knock on wood… perhaps oil has peaked already?)

Absolutely, and tht is the problem with thse statements, s well as the statistics..