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	<title>Comments on: Beware: Correlation doesn&#8217;t always mean causation &#8230;  London doesn&#8217;t just handle petrodollars</title>
	<atom:link href="http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/</link>
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		<title>By: flow5</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110921</link>
		<dc:creator>flow5</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Jul 2008 17:12:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110921</guid>
		<description>&quot;Why have they let money growth outpace GDP for so long?&quot;

If China&#039;s money &amp; credit growth is spent on projects which increase productivity and reduce waste, the expenditures are beneficial no matter how financed.  The initial inflationary effects of bank financing are quickly overcome by the larger output and lower unit costs.  

Debt incurred which reduces unit costs of production and promotes the health and welfare of the population obviously is &quot;good&quot; debt.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Why have they let money growth outpace GDP for so long?&#8221;</p>
<p>If China&#8217;s money &amp; credit growth is spent on projects which increase productivity and reduce waste, the expenditures are beneficial no matter how financed.  The initial inflationary effects of bank financing are quickly overcome by the larger output and lower unit costs.  </p>
<p>Debt incurred which reduces unit costs of production and promotes the health and welfare of the population obviously is &#8220;good&#8221; debt.</p>
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		<title>By: A. P. Simkin</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110918</link>
		<dc:creator>A. P. Simkin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Jul 2008 17:03:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110918</guid>
		<description>Rebel Economist:

It&#039;s not that bad. There&#039;s only a 7 or 8 hour difference between Frankfurt and Tokyo.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rebel Economist:</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not that bad. There&#8217;s only a 7 or 8 hour difference between Frankfurt and Tokyo.</p>
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		<title>By: RebelEconomist</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110914</link>
		<dc:creator>RebelEconomist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Jul 2008 16:52:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110914</guid>
		<description>A.P.Simkin,

I dare say that European foreign exchange reserves managers buy yen treasury bills in London because they do not want to get up early enough to buy them direct from Tokyo!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A.P.Simkin,</p>
<p>I dare say that European foreign exchange reserves managers buy yen treasury bills in London because they do not want to get up early enough to buy them direct from Tokyo!</p>
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		<title>By: flow5</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110912</link>
		<dc:creator>flow5</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Jul 2008 16:46:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110912</guid>
		<description>&quot;But there isn’t much evidence that the British government is all that interested in understanding the origin of the money that passes through London. And as a result, we are all left making informed guesses.&quot;

Nothing has changed.  Russia, formally the epitome of state controlled economies, did not use the ruble in its foreign exchange operations.  Since all trade with the Soviets was monolithic, it was to their advantage to establish a single money center bank through which all foreign financing could be channeled.  Their LONDON BANK was one of the first to become a part of the Euro-dollar system, an unregulated system of money creating banks operating on the principle of prudential reserves, as contrasted to regulated legal reserves.

London Banks could not compete without offering privacy, security, and protection of their international clients’ assets and information, i.e., a tradition of bank secrecy.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;But there isn’t much evidence that the British government is all that interested in understanding the origin of the money that passes through London. And as a result, we are all left making informed guesses.&#8221;</p>
<p>Nothing has changed.  Russia, formally the epitome of state controlled economies, did not use the ruble in its foreign exchange operations.  Since all trade with the Soviets was monolithic, it was to their advantage to establish a single money center bank through which all foreign financing could be channeled.  Their LONDON BANK was one of the first to become a part of the Euro-dollar system, an unregulated system of money creating banks operating on the principle of prudential reserves, as contrasted to regulated legal reserves.</p>
<p>London Banks could not compete without offering privacy, security, and protection of their international clients’ assets and information, i.e., a tradition of bank secrecy.</p>
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		<title>By: A. P. Simkin</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110909</link>
		<dc:creator>A. P. Simkin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Jul 2008 15:54:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110909</guid>
		<description>Dr. S!

Jesper may be right, but with bank lending so weak in Japan and with the banks there very liquid and looking for business, why would anyone buy Japanese money market paper in London? Enlighten me, please.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dr. S!</p>
<p>Jesper may be right, but with bank lending so weak in Japan and with the banks there very liquid and looking for business, why would anyone buy Japanese money market paper in London? Enlighten me, please.</p>
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		<title>By: Rien Huizer</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110860</link>
		<dc:creator>Rien Huizer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jul 2008 15:10:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110860</guid>
		<description>Once again DC,

It hurts to see someone with a Chinese looking name (but not spelled in Pinyin) show so little understanding of Chinese history beyond the propaganda, primary school or readers digest level. As you should know, China (Kangxi Emperor) had a few frortesses on an island (previously under tribal control, like most of the western Pacific islands at the time) then usually called Formosa, primarily inhabited by non-Han people, taken from the Dutch East India Company, who had in terun tken it from the Portuguese (the pirate admiral Coxinga did this at great cost with some help from the Portugues/Jesuits who were accepted at Kangxi&#039;s court) . Kangxi then decided to populate part of the East coast of the island with Fujianese people, who were not particularly keen. For 250 years the Island was neglected until the Japanese obtained it in the late 19th cntury. Contrary to the Koreans, the Taiwanese were not unhappy with the Japanese because they finally had a government that did not quite treat them s equals, but at least built schools, hospitls, railways and introduced modern sanitation. In the 1920s (as several Taiwanese friend have assured me), Taiwan was probably the most developed part of what is now China outside Shanghi and Tianjin. In 1949 the mainlanders came and made a big portion of the Taiwanese even more pro-Japanese than they already were. I could go on..I hope you catch my drift.

 But anyway, can you explain what makes you utter all these nonsensical comments that no one takes seriously and take up a lot of space. Does it have some function?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Once again DC,</p>
<p>It hurts to see someone with a Chinese looking name (but not spelled in Pinyin) show so little understanding of Chinese history beyond the propaganda, primary school or readers digest level. As you should know, China (Kangxi Emperor) had a few frortesses on an island (previously under tribal control, like most of the western Pacific islands at the time) then usually called Formosa, primarily inhabited by non-Han people, taken from the Dutch East India Company, who had in terun tken it from the Portuguese (the pirate admiral Coxinga did this at great cost with some help from the Portugues/Jesuits who were accepted at Kangxi&#8217;s court) . Kangxi then decided to populate part of the East coast of the island with Fujianese people, who were not particularly keen. For 250 years the Island was neglected until the Japanese obtained it in the late 19th cntury. Contrary to the Koreans, the Taiwanese were not unhappy with the Japanese because they finally had a government that did not quite treat them s equals, but at least built schools, hospitls, railways and introduced modern sanitation. In the 1920s (as several Taiwanese friend have assured me), Taiwan was probably the most developed part of what is now China outside Shanghi and Tianjin. In 1949 the mainlanders came and made a big portion of the Taiwanese even more pro-Japanese than they already were. I could go on..I hope you catch my drift.</p>
<p> But anyway, can you explain what makes you utter all these nonsensical comments that no one takes seriously and take up a lot of space. Does it have some function?</p>
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		<title>By: bsetser</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110858</link>
		<dc:creator>bsetser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jul 2008 14:47:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110858</guid>
		<description>running bear -- the rise in treasury/ agency purchases over the course of 07 preceded the rise in oil prices, hence the apparent correlation with &quot;China.&quot;  My point tho was that all three have been rising, so it is hard to know if it is China or oil.  I think the correlation may be cleaner tho if you look at the rolling 3m sums.

the apparent sell off in UK holdings isn&#039;t a real sell off -- it is the product of the data revisions that follow the release of the US survey data in June.   Basically, some treasuries and agencies that the US thought it sold to investors in the UK (tracked via the TIC data) turn up in the hands of investors around the world, not in the hands of UK investors when the US surveys actual holdings rather than tracking sales.    And the real reason for the &quot;China&quot; not &quot;oil&quot; argument is that the biggest upward revisions (offsetting the downward revisions for the UK) have come from China.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>running bear &#8212; the rise in treasury/ agency purchases over the course of 07 preceded the rise in oil prices, hence the apparent correlation with &#8220;China.&#8221;  My point tho was that all three have been rising, so it is hard to know if it is China or oil.  I think the correlation may be cleaner tho if you look at the rolling 3m sums.</p>
<p>the apparent sell off in UK holdings isn&#8217;t a real sell off &#8212; it is the product of the data revisions that follow the release of the US survey data in June.   Basically, some treasuries and agencies that the US thought it sold to investors in the UK (tracked via the TIC data) turn up in the hands of investors around the world, not in the hands of UK investors when the US surveys actual holdings rather than tracking sales.    And the real reason for the &#8220;China&#8221; not &#8220;oil&#8221; argument is that the biggest upward revisions (offsetting the downward revisions for the UK) have come from China.</p>
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		<title>By: running bear</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110855</link>
		<dc:creator>running bear</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jul 2008 14:24:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110855</guid>
		<description>Brad,

I confess that I cannot discern by eyeballing a closer correlation between oil and China &quot;foreign asset&quot;.

I will defer to your hard work.

Looking at your UK holdings patterns with exception of 2001 there is a build up through, and then apparently a sell off, coinciding with end of financial year. Could this be related to company transactions then? Or is it distribution?

Must say I was initially favouring oil due I think to timing of increases in UK deposits from BIS data. Also I think I remember a pattern of large increases in UK deposits in Citicorp annual report.

This of course could be due to either of the parties you are mooting.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brad,</p>
<p>I confess that I cannot discern by eyeballing a closer correlation between oil and China &#8220;foreign asset&#8221;.</p>
<p>I will defer to your hard work.</p>
<p>Looking at your UK holdings patterns with exception of 2001 there is a build up through, and then apparently a sell off, coinciding with end of financial year. Could this be related to company transactions then? Or is it distribution?</p>
<p>Must say I was initially favouring oil due I think to timing of increases in UK deposits from BIS data. Also I think I remember a pattern of large increases in UK deposits in Citicorp annual report.</p>
<p>This of course could be due to either of the parties you are mooting.</p>
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		<title>By: Sam</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110849</link>
		<dc:creator>Sam</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jul 2008 14:01:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110849</guid>
		<description>Shrek - yes the imbalances are unsustainable. US overconsumed and China kept its currency undervalued, real rates negative, and money supply/bank credit out of control. US consumers now paying the price, only a matter before China does for the distortions of the overconsuming US consumer / mercantilist China monetary arrangement. 

DC - I assume you live in US since your comments surface in US time zone. [EDITED]America was built on Italians, Irish, Chinese, and Hispanics who came here looking for a better life and integrated into society. Most have done that successfully and are proud to be American for affording that opportunity to them. I&#039;ve met people like you who enjoy the American living standard but bash and fault it at every turn. [EDITED]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Shrek &#8211; yes the imbalances are unsustainable. US overconsumed and China kept its currency undervalued, real rates negative, and money supply/bank credit out of control. US consumers now paying the price, only a matter before China does for the distortions of the overconsuming US consumer / mercantilist China monetary arrangement. </p>
<p>DC &#8211; I assume you live in US since your comments surface in US time zone. [EDITED]America was built on Italians, Irish, Chinese, and Hispanics who came here looking for a better life and integrated into society. Most have done that successfully and are proud to be American for affording that opportunity to them. I&#8217;ve met people like you who enjoy the American living standard but bash and fault it at every turn. [EDITED]</p>
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		<title>By: shrek</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110848</link>
		<dc:creator>shrek</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jul 2008 13:51:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/28/beware-correlation-doesnt-always-mean-causation-london-doesnt-just-handle-petrodollars/#comment-110848</guid>
		<description>Bottom line is the refusal to address global imbalances threatens the entire global economy.  I cant stress enough how much interest rates need to rise.  Eventually inflation will destroy the chinese economy and other economies</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bottom line is the refusal to address global imbalances threatens the entire global economy.  I cant stress enough how much interest rates need to rise.  Eventually inflation will destroy the chinese economy and other economies</p>
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