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	<title>Comments on: The flight from risky US assets</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/</link>
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		<title>By: Implications of Repricing of Dollar Denominated Assets &#124; 1800blogger</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-113005</link>
		<dc:creator>Implications of Repricing of Dollar Denominated Assets &#124; 1800blogger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Sep 2008 22:44:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-113005</guid>
		<description>[...] article then proceeds to discuss &#8220;a little noted Treasury report&#8221;. But actually, Brad Setser did catch the rather startling implications of this TIC report: The flight from risky US [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] article then proceeds to discuss &#8220;a little noted Treasury report&#8221;. But actually, Brad Setser did catch the rather startling implications of this TIC report: The flight from risky US [...]</p>
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		<title>By: State of the Markets, Sept18,08 &#171; Tech and Trek</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112942</link>
		<dc:creator>State of the Markets, Sept18,08 &#171; Tech and Trek</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Sep 2008 14:00:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112942</guid>
		<description>[...] Brad Setser, CFR: The flight from risky US assets [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Brad Setser, CFR: The flight from risky US assets [...]</p>
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		<title>By: bsetser</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112816</link>
		<dc:creator>bsetser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Sep 2008 15:38:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112816</guid>
		<description>fatbrick -- there is no detail at all in the us data on china&#039;s holdings of corp bonds.   the detail is all in the survey, and chinese holdings disappear there</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>fatbrick &#8212; there is no detail at all in the us data on china&#8217;s holdings of corp bonds.   the detail is all in the survey, and chinese holdings disappear there</p>
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		<title>By: fatbrick</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112797</link>
		<dc:creator>fatbrick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Sep 2008 13:22:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112797</guid>
		<description>Great job Brad.

I am more interested in 2 things:

1) US&#039;s net sell of foreign assets.  In July there is 32b net sell.  Wonder which market is affected most by these selling.

2) China&#039;s pruchase on corporate bonds.  Is there a detailed break down of corporate bonds market?  Where can I find the information?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Great job Brad.</p>
<p>I am more interested in 2 things:</p>
<p>1) US&#8217;s net sell of foreign assets.  In July there is 32b net sell.  Wonder which market is affected most by these selling.</p>
<p>2) China&#8217;s pruchase on corporate bonds.  Is there a detailed break down of corporate bonds market?  Where can I find the information?</p>
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		<title>By: koteli</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112750</link>
		<dc:creator>koteli</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Sep 2008 00:34:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112750</guid>
		<description>Dear Brad,

About a couple of years ago, I started to paste links to leap2020 in your and Nouriel&#039;s posts of RGE.

At the time, Nouriel&#039;s readers were making jokes about millions of foreclosed american households...

Not now.

Now a days, things are changing so fast fast that nobody has a clear north. Everything goes south!

Here&#039;s today leap 2020 post:

http://tinyurl.com/56v7ez

I also posted some links to Jerome a Paris. Here goes a clever one:

&quot;&quot;Dutch Disease&quot; was a term coined in the 1970s by the magazine The Economist to describe the syndrome suffered by the Netherlands after the discovery of the massive Groningen field propelled natural gas into the driving seat of the economy. The extractive sector became so profitable that it attracted the lion&#039;s share of new investment, and the resulting gas export boom altered the trade balance and boosted the currency, causing difficulties for the rest of an export-oriented economy. And, as with the &quot;oil curse&quot; that has struck other countries, depletion of the resource has since proved to be extremely painful.
On a larger scale, but of similar nature, is the high-profitability disorder that has, until recently, characterised the financial sector. The biggest single sector in the 2007 S&amp;P 500 market capitalisation index, weighing 7%-8% of US GDP, its share in total corporate profits stood last year at over 40% from below 20% in the 1970s. Net total income growth in recent years has predominantly benefited a relatively small number of people either working directly in the sector or owners of financial assets. In the UK, where the sector&#039;s share of GDP rose to 9.4% in 2006, from 5.5% in 2001, City-dominated London received 50% of total foreign investment. Per capita Gross Valued Added rose by between 8% and 9% over the last decade in London while, in all other regions of the UK, it stagnated or fell. In fact, the phenomenon is so firmly based in the money centers of New York and especially London, that the label &quot;Anglo Disease&quot;, by allusion to &quot;Dutch Disease&quot;, might appear to be no unfair moniker.
How to describe the pathology of this ailment? Financiers, now unchecked by regulation or restrictions on leverage, can monetize many kinds of future revenue streams today, generating instant profits they and their clients can capture. That capacity to create apparent wealth out of thin air without limit cannot be matched by any other sector in the economy. Unsurprisingly, it sucks in talent, resources and skills that are not available for infrastructure investment or other economic activities.
Meanwhile, the investors who have made those immediate profits possible still want to ensure that the future flows that underpin them do in fact materialize--and so they will impose their rules and discipline on the underlying economic activity. The result is an unrelenting focus on profits and shareholder value. Struggling to meet &quot;return on capital&quot; criteria, many non-financial activities experience yet further reductions in capital allocation, and relative decline. Meanwhile, public debate is dominated by financial analysts, as &quot;net present value&quot; becomes the standard prism through which to view any human activity.
Public policy attempts to provide balance are hamstrung by the fact that, from the financial viewpoint, regulations and tax are restrictions on entrepreneurship and profit to be opposed and if possible eliminated. As for labor, return on capital is improved if its cost can be reduced. Outsourcing, offshoring, and labor market flexibility have helped keep wages in check. Hence a major symptom of the Anglo Disease is long-term stagnation of the majority of incomes.
Flat incomes might constrain domestic demand, but easy credit (to the further benefit of the financial industry that channels it) has buttressed household spending. Expansionist monetary policies in the West have combined with Chinese mercantilism to offer rapid asset price increases with no consumer goods or wage inflation, generating high corporate profits. Global trade imbalances and what was a massive asset bubble created an economy blessed with the appearance of strong, inflation-free growth--an illusion that helped validate the underlying policies, despite rising inequality and ballooning, unsustainable, debt burdens. Starting with subprime lending, but now extending to other financial activities, market players have suddenly become scared by their collective imprudence and have engaged in a brutal process of deleveraging. While the credit crunch devastates bank balance sheets, the wider economy is also suffering. Credit available to businesses is shrinking, and the spigot of house equity withdrawals is turned off for consumers. The reality of declining or stagnant incomes for the majority can no longer be camouflaged. Prospects are dire, and further damage to the banking sector and the overall economy is likely.
The imbalances will only be unwound, ultimately, if incomes match spending more closely. That can, of course, happen through a consumer spending slump and an inevitably painful recession. The financial wagers and high-priced assets that surfed on a nicely growing economy will, at some point, have to be marked down as losses, as is happening already. The Anglo Disease will face treatment by the kind of drastic purge that threatens the patient&#039;s very life.
There remains another way: higher wages across the board, and a more modest financial sector restrained by regulators and unable to impose the artificially high return-on-capital requirements made possible only by excessive leverage. Making banking boring again is, compared to the alternative, a fairly gentle cure for the Anglo Disease.&quot;&quot;


Nouriel and you knew where all that was cominh from, too.

It&#039;s China&#039;s hand the monster&#039;s head, or Japan&#039;s 0 interest rate, or just US of A greed and imperialism, under a fake democracy?

Best wishes

koteli</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dear Brad,</p>
<p>About a couple of years ago, I started to paste links to leap2020 in your and Nouriel&#8217;s posts of RGE.</p>
<p>At the time, Nouriel&#8217;s readers were making jokes about millions of foreclosed american households&#8230;</p>
<p>Not now.</p>
<p>Now a days, things are changing so fast fast that nobody has a clear north. Everything goes south!</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s today leap 2020 post:</p>
<p><a href="http://tinyurl.com/56v7ez" rel="nofollow">http://tinyurl.com/56v7ez</a></p>
<p>I also posted some links to Jerome a Paris. Here goes a clever one:</p>
<p>&#8220;&#8221;Dutch Disease&#8221; was a term coined in the 1970s by the magazine The Economist to describe the syndrome suffered by the Netherlands after the discovery of the massive Groningen field propelled natural gas into the driving seat of the economy. The extractive sector became so profitable that it attracted the lion&#8217;s share of new investment, and the resulting gas export boom altered the trade balance and boosted the currency, causing difficulties for the rest of an export-oriented economy. And, as with the &#8220;oil curse&#8221; that has struck other countries, depletion of the resource has since proved to be extremely painful.<br />
On a larger scale, but of similar nature, is the high-profitability disorder that has, until recently, characterised the financial sector. The biggest single sector in the 2007 S&amp;P 500 market capitalisation index, weighing 7%-8% of US GDP, its share in total corporate profits stood last year at over 40% from below 20% in the 1970s. Net total income growth in recent years has predominantly benefited a relatively small number of people either working directly in the sector or owners of financial assets. In the UK, where the sector&#8217;s share of GDP rose to 9.4% in 2006, from 5.5% in 2001, City-dominated London received 50% of total foreign investment. Per capita Gross Valued Added rose by between 8% and 9% over the last decade in London while, in all other regions of the UK, it stagnated or fell. In fact, the phenomenon is so firmly based in the money centers of New York and especially London, that the label &#8220;Anglo Disease&#8221;, by allusion to &#8220;Dutch Disease&#8221;, might appear to be no unfair moniker.<br />
How to describe the pathology of this ailment? Financiers, now unchecked by regulation or restrictions on leverage, can monetize many kinds of future revenue streams today, generating instant profits they and their clients can capture. That capacity to create apparent wealth out of thin air without limit cannot be matched by any other sector in the economy. Unsurprisingly, it sucks in talent, resources and skills that are not available for infrastructure investment or other economic activities.<br />
Meanwhile, the investors who have made those immediate profits possible still want to ensure that the future flows that underpin them do in fact materialize&#8211;and so they will impose their rules and discipline on the underlying economic activity. The result is an unrelenting focus on profits and shareholder value. Struggling to meet &#8220;return on capital&#8221; criteria, many non-financial activities experience yet further reductions in capital allocation, and relative decline. Meanwhile, public debate is dominated by financial analysts, as &#8220;net present value&#8221; becomes the standard prism through which to view any human activity.<br />
Public policy attempts to provide balance are hamstrung by the fact that, from the financial viewpoint, regulations and tax are restrictions on entrepreneurship and profit to be opposed and if possible eliminated. As for labor, return on capital is improved if its cost can be reduced. Outsourcing, offshoring, and labor market flexibility have helped keep wages in check. Hence a major symptom of the Anglo Disease is long-term stagnation of the majority of incomes.<br />
Flat incomes might constrain domestic demand, but easy credit (to the further benefit of the financial industry that channels it) has buttressed household spending. Expansionist monetary policies in the West have combined with Chinese mercantilism to offer rapid asset price increases with no consumer goods or wage inflation, generating high corporate profits. Global trade imbalances and what was a massive asset bubble created an economy blessed with the appearance of strong, inflation-free growth&#8211;an illusion that helped validate the underlying policies, despite rising inequality and ballooning, unsustainable, debt burdens. Starting with subprime lending, but now extending to other financial activities, market players have suddenly become scared by their collective imprudence and have engaged in a brutal process of deleveraging. While the credit crunch devastates bank balance sheets, the wider economy is also suffering. Credit available to businesses is shrinking, and the spigot of house equity withdrawals is turned off for consumers. The reality of declining or stagnant incomes for the majority can no longer be camouflaged. Prospects are dire, and further damage to the banking sector and the overall economy is likely.<br />
The imbalances will only be unwound, ultimately, if incomes match spending more closely. That can, of course, happen through a consumer spending slump and an inevitably painful recession. The financial wagers and high-priced assets that surfed on a nicely growing economy will, at some point, have to be marked down as losses, as is happening already. The Anglo Disease will face treatment by the kind of drastic purge that threatens the patient&#8217;s very life.<br />
There remains another way: higher wages across the board, and a more modest financial sector restrained by regulators and unable to impose the artificially high return-on-capital requirements made possible only by excessive leverage. Making banking boring again is, compared to the alternative, a fairly gentle cure for the Anglo Disease.&#8221;"</p>
<p>Nouriel and you knew where all that was cominh from, too.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s China&#8217;s hand the monster&#8217;s head, or Japan&#8217;s 0 interest rate, or just US of A greed and imperialism, under a fake democracy?</p>
<p>Best wishes</p>
<p>koteli</p>
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		<title>By: Rachel</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112746</link>
		<dc:creator>Rachel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Sep 2008 00:15:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112746</guid>
		<description>the only sub-part I can&#039;t quite figure out is Kazakhstan - they dropped over $4b in short-term claims and added a small amount of treasuries. 
But if I recall, there might have been more capital injections into the Kazakh banking system back in July.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>the only sub-part I can&#8217;t quite figure out is Kazakhstan &#8211; they dropped over $4b in short-term claims and added a small amount of treasuries.<br />
But if I recall, there might have been more capital injections into the Kazakh banking system back in July.</p>
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		<title>By: Cedric Regula</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112744</link>
		<dc:creator>Cedric Regula</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Sep 2008 23:44:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112744</guid>
		<description>Here&#039;s a brief take from a Forex analyst on the post LEH &amp; AIG &amp; whomever else impact on the currency markets. Raises the issue again if it will be good selling for tresureals if everyone can figure out that the currency has to devalue.

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Lehman_Fails_And_AIG_Is_1221531486652.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s a brief take from a Forex analyst on the post LEH &amp; AIG &amp; whomever else impact on the currency markets. Raises the issue again if it will be good selling for tresureals if everyone can figure out that the currency has to devalue.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Lehman_Fails_And_AIG_Is_1221531486652.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Lehman_Fails_And_AIG_Is_1221531486652.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: Cedric Regula</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112740</link>
		<dc:creator>Cedric Regula</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Sep 2008 23:26:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112740</guid>
		<description>Aye Ca rumba, Happy Hank is going to have to sell lots and lots of treasuries.

We all know Uncle Pedro doesn&#039;t raise taxes and doesn&#039;t print money.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Aye Ca rumba, Happy Hank is going to have to sell lots and lots of treasuries.</p>
<p>We all know Uncle Pedro doesn&#8217;t raise taxes and doesn&#8217;t print money.</p>
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		<title>By: euro</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112734</link>
		<dc:creator>euro</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Sep 2008 22:34:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112734</guid>
		<description>Could you explain that:

US Considering AIG &quot;Conservatorship&quot;
Excerpt:

The U.S. Treasury is considering taking over American International Group Inc. under a conservatorship as one option to address the insurer&#039;s crisis, according to two people briefed on the discussions.

Executives from AIG, bankers and Treasury and Federal Reserve officials are meeting today on the company&#039;s situation at the New York Fed. A number of options are under being discussed to fill a shortfall of $75 billion to $100 billion in funding, one of the people said. The talks are continuing, he said.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., which have been leading efforts to find a private-sector solution, informed the Fed that such an effort would be difficult, the person said. Under another option, the Fed would extend a loan to New York-based AIG, according to a person informed of the matter.

Explain it out of printing, if you dare!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Could you explain that:</p>
<p>US Considering AIG &#8220;Conservatorship&#8221;<br />
Excerpt:</p>
<p>The U.S. Treasury is considering taking over American International Group Inc. under a conservatorship as one option to address the insurer&#8217;s crisis, according to two people briefed on the discussions.</p>
<p>Executives from AIG, bankers and Treasury and Federal Reserve officials are meeting today on the company&#8217;s situation at the New York Fed. A number of options are under being discussed to fill a shortfall of $75 billion to $100 billion in funding, one of the people said. The talks are continuing, he said.</p>
<p>Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., which have been leading efforts to find a private-sector solution, informed the Fed that such an effort would be difficult, the person said. Under another option, the Fed would extend a loan to New York-based AIG, according to a person informed of the matter.</p>
<p>Explain it out of printing, if you dare!</p>
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		<title>By: euro</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112733</link>
		<dc:creator>euro</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Sep 2008 22:31:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/16/the-flight-from-risky-us-assets-continues/#comment-112733</guid>
		<description>Or just oil price!

No words!

It&#039;s not just Team 1250 working hard, it&#039;s just USA&#039;s corruption, in your face!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Or just oil price!</p>
<p>No words!</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not just Team 1250 working hard, it&#8217;s just USA&#8217;s corruption, in your face!</p>
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