Comments on: A few quick words on the November TIC data

By: Partially Hydrogenated » Blog Archive » Monthly U.S. Foreign Debt Update

Mon, 26 Jan 2009 02:07:54 +0000

[...] international trade and finance economist who works at the Council of Foreign Relations, has a more nuanced report, focused on China (which is the most interesting since there’s there the largest holder of [...]

By: Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » Is the US now more, or less, reliant on China’s government for financing right now?

Fri, 23 Jan 2009 15:09:43 +0000

[...] custodial accounts implies that this basic pattern continued in December (data/ graphs can be found here) 2) The surge in China’s Treasury purchases has come even as China’s reserve growth has [...]

By: self-evident » All the T-bills in China

self-evident » All the T-bills in China — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 15:59:02 +0000

[...] A few quick words on the November TIC datar (Setser): China sold $9.2 billion of long-term Treasuries. But it also bought $38.2b of short-term Treasuries. China’s total Treasury holdings are up by $29.1b. By contrast it sold $3.1b of long-term Agencies and also reduced its short-term holdings by about $5 billion. China reallocated its US portfolio, but it hasn’t cut back on its dollar purchases. [...]

By: China Moves to Shorter Maturity Treasuries Out of Bond Bubble Worries | Bear Market Investments

Thu, 22 Jan 2009 06:51:51 +0000

[...] this one astutely (or perhaps even contributed to the fall in price). As Brad Setser noted in his comments on the Treasury International Capital report for November: China sold $9.2 billion of long-term Treasuries. But it also bought $38.2b of short-term [...]

By: LastGame

LastGame — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 07:26:44 +0000

Just an important note to remember. Without the hard work of Asians, in particular Chinese workers the last 30 years the United States would likely never have seen the sort of prosperity we achieved. Even if this prosperity was an illusion, we could have made it reality if we would have used these funds for education, healthcare and alternative energy. But this is not the case.

Our U.S. international corporations were able to make profits unheard of in the past. We paid bowls of rice for jeans, shirts, plastic devices and almost every product offered in wal-mart. We had 12 year old kids getting water and cereal every 4 hours he put together 50 pairs of Nike shoes.

After the end of slavery in the U.S. the post-industrial revolution under “capitalism” needed a route for profits to increase. Through this, the creation of free trade agreements were placed in order and “special-relationships” were signed and sealed.

Unfortunately, all great runs come to an end. We are well aware that much like the last days of slavery, we are near the last years of using the workers in some countries such as China. It is only natural revolution that the child is nearing development for maturity and international corporations having bloated Americans with gadgets and goods see much more potential opportunity in the east. Especially the 1.2B potential consumers in China and all those with big savings in Japan.

A global monetary crash is in order. Trade relationships will be broken and U.S. corporations will focus on emerging nations.

The clock is ticking, it’s only a matter of time. The 100′s of billions issued by policy makers is peanuts. Issuing more credit is part of the consequence, not part of the solution. The black hole is so immense that the U.S. as will soon approach a stage of entire insolvency. Corporate to consumer.

My hope is that China prepares itself, as mentioned before the clock is ticking…readers will note this as Chinese exports continue rapid deterioration in months ahead.

By: Observer

Observer — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 05:09:11 +0000

Perhaps countries are starting to figure out that the mandatory spending levels as the baby boomer retire will present a significant challenge for the government to run any kind of fiscal surpluses, and thus the discounted value of those future surpluses would not be enough to cover the current debt levels. In other words, the long term solvency of the US gov’t isn’t very good.

By: Kislaya Gautam

Kislaya Gautam — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 18:52:32 +0000

@ Brad:
Of course the option of printing press is not cheap – but still is a very feasible one in which the “least loser”, among pile of loser countries, would be USA. My point is that all the countries understand this dynamic so pontificating on how other countries can pull the plug on USA is trivial.

By: Indian Investor

Indian Investor — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 15:34:17 +0000

The State Government of Tamil Nadu state in India is the main party that would be interested in intervening for a ceasefire in Sri Lanka.
India is going to the polls, a general election for the Union Parliament, in March 2009. Given the pace of late 2008 announcements of capture of Tamil Tiger stronghold towns, I fully expect the Sri Lanka Civil War to be over by then.
Even if there is intervention by the Indian Army in Lanka, that would be bullish for the petro sector, specifically for Cairn Energy plc, because of the ONGc involvement and generally close ties between British Prime Minister in waiting Secretary David Milliband and Indian Prime Minister in waiting Rahul Gandhi.

By: Indian Investor

Indian Investor — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 15:29:26 +0000

Cairn Energy plc is the main explorer, and they’ve signed contracts through Cairn India Ltd., their Indian subsidiary and a newly formed Sri Lankan entity called Cairn Lanka Ltd.
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Corporation Videsh Ltd., a Government of India owned entity and China National Petroleum Corporation, a People’s Republic of China owned entity were both offered preferential allotment for exploration in the Gulf of Mannar.
Government of Sri Lanka had a Norwegian firm conduct the initial 2-dimensional siesmic study in 2005.
Post the study the Petroleum Resources Secretariat divided up the area into 8 exploration blocks.
Unfortunately I’m not sure precisely how many blocks are with Cairn and how many are with ONGC and CNPC as of today. This is because there’s no precise info on the Lanka official govt web sites and there are conflicting reports at different times.
Initially Lanka offered 1 block to ONGC and 1 block to CNPC on a preferential basis. ONGC refused the block because after its study it didn’t find the overall contract profitable. I read a report that later 2 blocks each had been offered to ONGC and CNPC, but it was from a doubtful source.
Cairn I think has either 3 or 4 of the blocks, because Cairn was the main bidder after the Lanka govt. road shows to invite competitive bids.
Cairn India Ltd. was recently up because of some discovery in the Kaveri-Godavari Basin in India that is otherwise dominated by Reliance Industries Ltd.

By: Dr. Dan

Dr. Dan — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 15:10:16 +0000

Indian : Thanks for the news on LTTE but is Gulf of Mannar a high profile oil field ? Who are the explorers ? Cairn ?

I remember meeting Rahul Dhir few years ago and he sounded a very very astute fellow.