Comments on: Secrets from the Treasury’s Survey: It looks like China bought a lot of equities just before the stock market tumbled http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/01/secrets-from-the-treasurys-survey-it-looks-like-china-bought-a-lot-of-equities-just-before-the-stock-market-tumbled/ Thu, 14 Oct 2010 13:09:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: China compra materias primas para diversificar sus reservas de divisas « RSSNEWS - Geopolítica, economía y energía http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/01/secrets-from-the-treasurys-survey-it-looks-like-china-bought-a-lot-of-equities-just-before-the-stock-market-tumbled/#comment-129749 China compra materias primas para diversificar sus reservas de divisas « RSSNEWS - Geopolítica, economía y energía Tue, 28 Apr 2009 22:04:34 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4826#comment-129749 [...] http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/01/secrets-from-the-treasurys-survey-it-looks-like-china-bought-... [...] [...] http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/01/secrets-from-the-treasurys-survey-it-looks-like-china-bought-... [...]

]]> By: Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » “Not quite so SAFE”: This week’s Economics Focus column http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/01/secrets-from-the-treasurys-survey-it-looks-like-china-bought-a-lot-of-equities-just-before-the-stock-market-tumbled/#comment-129570 Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » “Not quite so SAFE”: This week’s Economics Focus column Fri, 24 Apr 2009 12:51:07 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4826#comment-129570 [...] consequently the estimates in the actual paper are now a bit out of date. The last survey showed fewer Treasury purchases than we expected, and more equity purchases. * The estimates in this week’s Economist reflect the results of the last survey, and [...] [...] consequently the estimates in the actual paper are now a bit out of date. The last survey showed fewer Treasury purchases than we expected, and more equity purchases. * The estimates in this week’s Economist reflect the results of the last survey, and [...]

]]> By: lymnSleeste http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/01/secrets-from-the-treasurys-survey-it-looks-like-china-bought-a-lot-of-equities-just-before-the-stock-market-tumbled/#comment-127938 lymnSleeste Mon, 23 Mar 2009 12:11:42 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4826#comment-127938 Great... Great…

]]> By: China Journal : China Journal Wrap: Hope for Banks, China's Big Stock Hit? http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/01/secrets-from-the-treasurys-survey-it-looks-like-china-bought-a-lot-of-equities-just-before-the-stock-market-tumbled/#comment-127411 China Journal : China Journal Wrap: Hope for Banks, China's Big Stock Hit? Mon, 16 Mar 2009 13:07:24 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4826#comment-127411 [...] is getting a fresh look. Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations recently highlighted a move into equities by the keeper of China’s foreign reserves. The post — apparently the basis for a Financial [...] [...] is getting a fresh look. Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations recently highlighted a move into equities by the keeper of China’s foreign reserves. The post — apparently the basis for a Financial [...]

]]> By: Thursday, March 5, 2009 « Rising in Phoenix http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/01/secrets-from-the-treasurys-survey-it-looks-like-china-bought-a-lot-of-equities-just-before-the-stock-market-tumbled/#comment-126664 Thursday, March 5, 2009 « Rising in Phoenix Thu, 05 Mar 2009 11:34:23 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4826#comment-126664 [...] China’s Investment in American debt - wonder why the Federal Goverment is not doing much, we are up to our ears in debt to other countries and soverign wealth funds, China and Japan lead the pack. Secrets from the Treasury’s Survey: It looks like China bought a lot of equities just before the stock market tumbled Posted on Sunday, March 1st, 2009 By bsetser Late on Friday, the US Treasury released the preliminary results of its annual survey of foreign portfolio investment in the US. That always makes for an interesting weekend. The survey offers the best picture of the impact large central banks and sovereign funds have had on global financial markets. It just comes out with a long lag. And as I will argue later, it is, for all its virtues, it still paints an incomplete picture of the activities of official investors. But it still reveals a few secrets, not the least about China. It turns out that China bought significantly fewer Treasuries from the middle of 2007 to the middle of 2008 than I had projected – and a lot more equities. China also was – as expected – a very large buyer of Agencies (particularly mortgage backed securities with an Agency guarantee, often called “Agency pass-throughs”) from mid-2007 to mid-2008. China consequently entered the “Lehman” crisis with a somewhat riskier portfolio than I thought. The bulk of China’s portfolio, to be sure, was in Treasuries, Agencies and comparable European bonds. But it now looks like well over 10% of SAFE’s portfolio was invested in “risk” assets of various kinds — equities and corporate bonds. That likely explains why China reversed course and fled to safety this fall. China got burned. SAFE (not-so-SAFE?) especially. The survey data indicates that China had $521.91 billion of long-term Treasuries at the end of June 2008 (up $53.4 billion from June 2007) and $527.05 billion of long-term Agencies at the end of June 2008 (up $150.73 b from June 2007). China consequently entered into the crisis with more exposure to the Agencies than to the Treasury. Source: http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/01/secrets-from-the-treasurys-survey-it-looks-like-china-bought-... [...] [...] China’s Investment in American debt – wonder why the Federal Goverment is not doing much, we are up to our ears in debt to other countries and soverign wealth funds, China and Japan lead the pack. Secrets from the Treasury’s Survey: It looks like China bought a lot of equities just before the stock market tumbled Posted on Sunday, March 1st, 2009 By bsetser Late on Friday, the US Treasury released the preliminary results of its annual survey of foreign portfolio investment in the US. That always makes for an interesting weekend. The survey offers the best picture of the impact large central banks and sovereign funds have had on global financial markets. It just comes out with a long lag. And as I will argue later, it is, for all its virtues, it still paints an incomplete picture of the activities of official investors. But it still reveals a few secrets, not the least about China. It turns out that China bought significantly fewer Treasuries from the middle of 2007 to the middle of 2008 than I had projected – and a lot more equities. China also was – as expected – a very large buyer of Agencies (particularly mortgage backed securities with an Agency guarantee, often called “Agency pass-throughs”) from mid-2007 to mid-2008. China consequently entered the “Lehman” crisis with a somewhat riskier portfolio than I thought. The bulk of China’s portfolio, to be sure, was in Treasuries, Agencies and comparable European bonds. But it now looks like well over 10% of SAFE’s portfolio was invested in “risk” assets of various kinds — equities and corporate bonds. That likely explains why China reversed course and fled to safety this fall. China got burned. SAFE (not-so-SAFE?) especially. The survey data indicates that China had $521.91 billion of long-term Treasuries at the end of June 2008 (up $53.4 billion from June 2007) and $527.05 billion of long-term Agencies at the end of June 2008 (up $150.73 b from June 2007). China consequently entered into the crisis with more exposure to the Agencies than to the Treasury. Source: http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/01/secrets-from-the-treasurys-survey-it-looks-like-china-bought-... [...]

]]> By: Tudo o que você queria saber sobre a CHINA, mas tinha vergonha de perguntar « BLOG do CRÉDITO, por F.Blanco http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/01/secrets-from-the-treasurys-survey-it-looks-like-china-bought-a-lot-of-equities-just-before-the-stock-market-tumbled/#comment-126646 Tudo o que você queria saber sobre a CHINA, mas tinha vergonha de perguntar « BLOG do CRÉDITO, por F.Blanco Thu, 05 Mar 2009 04:27:34 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4826#comment-126646 [...] PAC Chinês |   Amigos, este post estava incubado há meses. O top favorite blog do Brad Setser sempre fez “marcação serrada” na economia chinesa, mas como seus posts são mais [...] [...] PAC Chinês |   Amigos, este post estava incubado há meses. O top favorite blog do Brad Setser sempre fez “marcação serrada” na economia chinesa, mas como seus posts são mais [...]

]]> By: DrMommy http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/01/secrets-from-the-treasurys-survey-it-looks-like-china-bought-a-lot-of-equities-just-before-the-stock-market-tumbled/#comment-126604 DrMommy Wed, 04 Mar 2009 18:03:00 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4826#comment-126604 Your analysis does not include large holdings of equity that is included in the DI flows and holdings. Your analysis does not include large holdings of equity that is included in the DI flows and holdings.

]]> By: yuer http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/01/secrets-from-the-treasurys-survey-it-looks-like-china-bought-a-lot-of-equities-just-before-the-stock-market-tumbled/#comment-126599 yuer Wed, 04 Mar 2009 15:50:58 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4826#comment-126599 Sounds like we can use SAFE as a contrarian indicator: time to run away from US treasuries! Sounds like we can use SAFE as a contrarian indicator: time to run away from US treasuries!

]]> By: Belmont Club » Which way did he go, George? http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/01/secrets-from-the-treasurys-survey-it-looks-like-china-bought-a-lot-of-equities-just-before-the-stock-market-tumbled/#comment-126588 Belmont Club » Which way did he go, George? Wed, 04 Mar 2009 08:41:55 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4826#comment-126588 [...] Setser also looks at what the records show about what China knew in late 2008 and it turns out that they too were more surprised by the turn of events that at first believed. They were actually expanding their portfolio in equities even as the bubble started to go blat. Setser thinks it is possible that China is hurting more than it is letting on, though there is no way to be sure. But at any rate, neither Chinese totalitarianism nor European social models seem to confer any particular insight into the future. [...] [...] Setser also looks at what the records show about what China knew in late 2008 and it turns out that they too were more surprised by the turn of events that at first believed. They were actually expanding their portfolio in equities even as the bubble started to go blat. Setser thinks it is possible that China is hurting more than it is letting on, though there is no way to be sure. But at any rate, neither Chinese totalitarianism nor European social models seem to confer any particular insight into the future. [...]

]]> By: Murph http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/01/secrets-from-the-treasurys-survey-it-looks-like-china-bought-a-lot-of-equities-just-before-the-stock-market-tumbled/#comment-126581 Murph Wed, 04 Mar 2009 04:51:03 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4826#comment-126581 Brad, It sounds like SAFE got on the wrong side of big events from 2007-2008 - starting into equities at the very top - diversifying out of USD before the global flight-to-(USD)safety Your thoughtful research is invaluable. Thank you. Brad,

It sounds like SAFE got on the wrong side of big events from 2007-2008

- starting into equities at the very top
- diversifying out of USD before the global flight-to-(USD)safety

Your thoughtful research is invaluable.

Thank you.

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