Comments on: Central banks are still buying large quantities of Treasuries

By: Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » The reserve manager panic of 2008 …

Fri, 01 May 2009 14:53:10 +0000

[...] to selling fairly large quantities rather suddenly. Big buyers in the second quarter of 2008 were big sellers in the fourth quarter of 2008. And we now know that the world’s reserve managers pulled a fair amount of liquidity out of [...]

By: Obamanomics –The Road To Insolvency | Cincinnatus Blog /// Political, Social and Environmental Commentary

Sun, 22 Mar 2009 18:20:24 +0000

[...] citizens or “foreign” owners) is $6.6 trillion. Approximately 50% of US debt is owed to foreigners, up from 31% in 2000, and this debt will undoubtedly continue to climb. If China and other foreign [...]

By: don

don — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 02:41:58 +0000

‘lots of things are possible but a q2 deficit in china seems unlikely to me.”
While possible, it would signal a true disaster for China’s economy.

By: John

John — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 17:37:28 +0000

My prediction: Whenever a single T-bill auction fails to generate a healthy coverage ratio, there will be a panic in the T-bill market. That, or a spike in the price of oil (or any other indicia of inflationary pressures) will trigger a downward spiral.

The Central Banks know that they will get paid for their bonds with depreciated dollars. That is why there has been such a strong move towards short-term maturity T-bills. The 30-yr. bond is not a smart investment.

By: K T Cat

K T Cat — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 11:36:22 +0000

Bubblicious,

“The U.S. really shouldn’t be going into such a large debt hole. They think they can continue to issue infinite amounts of Tbills but what’s going to happen one day when the auction falls short?”

I would argue that the current administration doesn’t care. Jobs and the economy are less important than CO2 and global warming, health care for all, wealth redistribution, and so on. The evidence is all there in the speeches and is certainly supported by their actions.

By: Sovereign power and US vulnerability « Beats and Pieces

Sovereign power and US vulnerability « Beats and Pieces — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 07:53:13 +0000

[...] is precisely what both China and Russia have been doing over the past few months. - A creditor government could change how it [...]

By: bsetser

bsetser — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 03:33:35 +0000

given china’s jan surplus and the y/y fall in commodities, tis rather unlikely the jan-feb surplus (y/y) fell 60%. it may be down v q4, but that is the normal seasonal pattern. i would be equally surprised if china swings into a q2 deficit. that would imply that the us deficit turns into a surplus — or that there is an enormous swing in China’s balance with europe. lots of things are possible but a q2 deficit in china seems unlikely to me.

By: Rajesh

Rajesh — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 02:47:11 +0000

I predict continued strength in the dollar and continued stupidity at the U.N. (after all that’s what its there for.)

By: DOR

DOR — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 02:08:08 +0000

If China’s trade surplus in the first two months fell 60+ percent, and some Mainland economists are predicting a Q-2 trade deficit, what is the likely impact on T-bills and the dollar?

By: confused

confused — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 23:07:43 +0000

i’m also leaning toward the position of the respected economists at the UN…

Pritchards although in line at times, has been greatly off on his commentary. thanks for your input charlie.