Comments on: January’s TIC data … http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/16/todays-tic-data/ Thu, 14 Oct 2010 13:09:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: China Isn’t the Issue… | Daily Finance News - Forex Stock Market http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/16/todays-tic-data/#comment-135028 China Isn’t the Issue… | Daily Finance News - Forex Stock Market Sat, 10 Apr 2010 14:14:23 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4968#comment-135028 [...] Brad Setser (i.e. “Mr. TIC”) follows: Banks stopped piling into US assets. In October — at the peak of the crisis — private investors abroad bought $64 billion US T-bills and increased their dollar deposits by $196 billion dollar-denominated liabilities. In January, credit conditions eased a bit, and private investors reduced their t-bill holds by $44 billion and the banks reduced their (net) dollar deposits by $119 billion. [...] [...] Brad Setser (i.e. “Mr. TIC”) follows: Banks stopped piling into US assets. In October — at the peak of the crisis — private investors abroad bought $64 billion US T-bills and increased their dollar deposits by $196 billion dollar-denominated liabilities. In January, credit conditions eased a bit, and private investors reduced their t-bill holds by $44 billion and the banks reduced their (net) dollar deposits by $119 billion. [...]

]]> By: Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » All great things have to end http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/16/todays-tic-data/#comment-134016 Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » All great things have to end Tue, 04 Aug 2009 18:45:38 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4968#comment-134016 [...] — especially as I am a bit better at seeing risks than opportunities. No private bank keeps a specialist on the TIC data on their [...] [...] — especially as I am a bit better at seeing risks than opportunities. No private bank keeps a specialist on the TIC data on their [...]

]]> By: Shadowtraders » Blog Archive » Tourniquets, please! http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/16/todays-tic-data/#comment-130093 Shadowtraders » Blog Archive » Tourniquets, please! Thu, 07 May 2009 22:44:38 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4968#comment-130093 [...] article here. From Brad Setser at the CFR. Gads the money inflows/outflows are gawd awful, [...] [...] article here. From Brad Setser at the CFR. Gads the money inflows/outflows are gawd awful, [...]

]]> By: Forex News Blogs » Blog Archive » Debt Auctions: Failures Rising http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/16/todays-tic-data/#comment-128666 Forex News Blogs » Blog Archive » Debt Auctions: Failures Rising Fri, 03 Apr 2009 14:33:36 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4968#comment-128666 [...] January’s TIC data was an unmitigated disaster. Ben Bernanke has seen the writing on the wall, and panicked last week into monetizing debt in a desperate bid to stall the inevitable. He knows that when a US Treasury auction finally does fail, the maw of the Abyss will open up and swallow up the entire global financial system. [...] [...] January’s TIC data was an unmitigated disaster. Ben Bernanke has seen the writing on the wall, and panicked last week into monetizing debt in a desperate bid to stall the inevitable. He knows that when a US Treasury auction finally does fail, the maw of the Abyss will open up and swallow up the entire global financial system. [...]

]]> By: Tourniquets, please! » Futures Trading Blog - Shadowtraders.com http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/16/todays-tic-data/#comment-127621 Tourniquets, please! » Futures Trading Blog - Shadowtraders.com Wed, 18 Mar 2009 16:53:46 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4968#comment-127621 [...] article here. From Brad Setser at the CFR. Gads the money inflows/outflows are gawd awful, [...] [...] article here. From Brad Setser at the CFR. Gads the money inflows/outflows are gawd awful, [...]

]]> By: Photomaniacal » Blog Archive » China Isn’t the Issue… http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/16/todays-tic-data/#comment-127499 Photomaniacal » Blog Archive » China Isn’t the Issue… Tue, 17 Mar 2009 19:30:06 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4968#comment-127499 [...] Brad Setser (i.e. “Mr. TIC”) follows: Banks stopped piling into US assets. In October — at the peak of the crisis — private investors abroad bought $64 billion US T-bills and increased their dollar deposits by $196 billion dollar-denominated liabilities. In January, credit conditions eased a bit, and private investors reduced their t-bill holds by $44 billion and the banks reduced their (net) dollar deposits by $119 billion. [...] [...] Brad Setser (i.e. “Mr. TIC”) follows: Banks stopped piling into US assets. In October — at the peak of the crisis — private investors abroad bought $64 billion US T-bills and increased their dollar deposits by $196 billion dollar-denominated liabilities. In January, credit conditions eased a bit, and private investors reduced their t-bill holds by $44 billion and the banks reduced their (net) dollar deposits by $119 billion. [...]

]]> By: don http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/16/todays-tic-data/#comment-127494 don Tue, 17 Mar 2009 18:34:57 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4968#comment-127494 From the BoP identity, the current account and capital flows must balance each instant. The trade data imply that there are still net inflows of capital. These are not 'needed' and indeed are counterproductive in our current excess savings mode. In fact, a reversal of these flows would provide a nice fiscal stimulus. In the near future, I suspect we will see if China decides to keep the yuan fixed, or to depreciate it. I think without depreciation or truly massive fiscal stimulus, their economy will suffer badly. From the BoP identity, the current account and capital flows must balance each instant. The trade data imply that there are still net inflows of capital. These are not ‘needed’ and indeed are counterproductive in our current excess savings mode. In fact, a reversal of these flows would provide a nice fiscal stimulus.
In the near future, I suspect we will see if China decides to keep the yuan fixed, or to depreciate it. I think without depreciation or truly massive fiscal stimulus, their economy will suffer badly.

]]> By: TA http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/16/todays-tic-data/#comment-127485 TA Tue, 17 Mar 2009 16:35:01 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4968#comment-127485 Can you make the TIC numbers for the 4th quarter (oct. nov, dec.) line up even roughly with the FRB 4th Q flow of funds report? I can't. Can you make the TIC numbers for the 4th quarter (oct. nov, dec.) line up even roughly with the FRB 4th Q flow of funds report? I can’t.

]]> By: Curious http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/16/todays-tic-data/#comment-127465 Curious Tue, 17 Mar 2009 14:48:53 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4968#comment-127465 Dear Brad, There was a lot of buzz recently regarding Chinese IP recovery in Feb 09. But can it be that all this production is just for the sake of production, all going into inventory – and the massive pick up in Chinese loans is just financing this working capital/inventory accumulation? Maybe they decided – what the hell, we will produce in order to keep employment numbers from complete collpase, we will store all these finished goods somewhere for the time being and hopefully will sell later? That would be a disastrous scenario. Is there any way to confirm or disconfirm this hypothesis- in the balance of payments data maybe? Would be very intresting to hear your views. Thank you! Dear Brad,
There was a lot of buzz recently regarding Chinese IP recovery in Feb 09.
But can it be that all this production is just for the sake of production, all going into inventory – and the massive pick up in Chinese loans is just financing this working capital/inventory accumulation?
Maybe they decided – what the hell, we will produce in order to keep employment numbers from complete collpase, we will store all these finished goods somewhere for the time being and hopefully will sell later? That would be a disastrous scenario. Is there any way to confirm or disconfirm this hypothesis- in the balance of payments data maybe? Would be very intresting to hear your views.

Thank you!

]]> By: Jesse http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/16/todays-tic-data/#comment-127463 Jesse Tue, 17 Mar 2009 14:30:47 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=4968#comment-127463 I suspect that when the BIS releases its data for this time period that we will see that the eurodollar short squeeze was strong in January which accounted for the anomalous dollar strength. It is important to look at the DX components and not the aggregate when analyzing these things. This is significant because it tends to highlight the underlying weakness of this dollar rally, and a likely reversion to the mean which may be quite impressive. I suspect that when the BIS releases its data for this time period that we will see that the eurodollar short squeeze was strong in January which accounted for the anomalous dollar strength.

It is important to look at the DX components and not the aggregate when analyzing these things.

This is significant because it tends to highlight the underlying weakness of this dollar rally, and a likely reversion to the mean which may be quite impressive.

]]>