Comments on: Charting the current US downturn http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/08/charting-the-current-us-downturn/ Thu, 14 Oct 2010 13:09:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Stock Research Portal Blog - Mining and Energy Stocks in an Economic Context http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/08/charting-the-current-us-downturn/#comment-128950 Stock Research Portal Blog - Mining and Energy Stocks in an Economic Context Fri, 10 Apr 2009 12:22:41 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5121#comment-128950 [...] a recent article titled ‘Charting the current US downturn’ Brad Setser reports that Paul Swartz of The Council on Foreign Relations Center for Geoeconomic [...] [...] a recent article titled ‘Charting the current US downturn’ Brad Setser reports that Paul Swartz of The Council on Foreign Relations Center for Geoeconomic [...]

]]> By: purple http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/08/charting-the-current-us-downturn/#comment-128919 purple Thu, 09 Apr 2009 03:51:31 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5121#comment-128919 It's quite likely there will be a double dip, because none of the underlying issues have been resolved. Once the various stimulus programs fade, that will be more clear. The yuan swaps are more a form of investment than a new international currency. It's protecting their export sector while also finding somewhere else to put their money. It’s quite likely there will be a double dip, because none of the underlying issues have been resolved. Once the various stimulus programs fade, that will be more clear.

The yuan swaps are more a form of investment than a new international currency. It’s protecting their export sector while also finding somewhere else to put their money.

]]> By: adiemuso http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/08/charting-the-current-us-downturn/#comment-128915 adiemuso Thu, 09 Apr 2009 02:28:07 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5121#comment-128915 without a doubt, latent issues amongst non-financials will boom like fungi after a rainstorm. will the massive shoving of federal umbrellas n raincoats unto the financial markets alleviate the woes of the masses? will the credit flow smoothly from the federal coffers to that of the end consumer? US GDP has a big (60%?) component based on domestic consumption. will confidence, or expectations (economist speak), a difficult to measure and equally difficult to control factor be restored? without a doubt umployment and layoffs will creep higher..we are already past the peaks since 1984..if this time is worse than before..logically breaking higher should be an issue of time. somehow, i feel money has become a nominal thing. whats important now is expecations, a rare commodity in current times. without a doubt, latent issues amongst non-financials will boom like fungi after a rainstorm.

will the massive shoving of federal umbrellas n raincoats unto the financial markets alleviate the woes of the masses?

will the credit flow smoothly from the federal coffers to that of the end consumer? US GDP has a big (60%?) component based on domestic consumption.

will confidence, or expectations (economist speak), a difficult to measure and equally difficult to control factor be restored?

without a doubt umployment and layoffs will creep higher..we are already past the peaks since 1984..if this time is worse than before..logically breaking higher should be an issue of time.

somehow, i feel money has become a nominal thing. whats important now is expecations, a rare commodity in current times.

]]> By: Twofish http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/08/charting-the-current-us-downturn/#comment-128912 Twofish Thu, 09 Apr 2009 01:30:20 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5121#comment-128912 Bob_in_MA: China is spending a lot supporting manufacturing, exports, shipbuilding, commodities and even industrial investment at a time of severe over-capacity. It really isn't. The stimulus is being directed at railroads, middle/low income housing, and health and education. There is excessive overcapacity at somethings. Wild undercapacity at others. Bob_in_MA: What happens if after 2 years of this, the fiscal and monetary policies have prevented a much more pronounced collapse, but the American consumer’s debt-to-income has risen and excess industrial capacity around the world has likewise increased? If you have unused industrial capacity then just print money to wipe out debt, which is more or less what the Fed is doing right now. Bob_in_MA: China is spending a lot supporting manufacturing, exports, shipbuilding, commodities and even industrial investment at a time of severe over-capacity.

It really isn’t. The stimulus is being directed at railroads, middle/low income housing, and health and education. There is excessive overcapacity at somethings. Wild undercapacity at others.

Bob_in_MA: What happens if after 2 years of this, the fiscal and monetary policies have prevented a much more pronounced collapse, but the American consumer’s debt-to-income has risen and excess industrial capacity around the world has likewise increased?

If you have unused industrial capacity then just print money to wipe out debt, which is more or less what the Fed is doing right now.

]]> By: Ying http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/08/charting-the-current-us-downturn/#comment-128906 Ying Wed, 08 Apr 2009 22:03:33 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5121#comment-128906 Any idea that bank liquidation may be possible? http://cop.senate.gov/reports/library/report-040709-cop.cfm Any idea that bank liquidation may be possible?

http://cop.senate.gov/reports/library/report-040709-cop.cfm

]]> By: locococo http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/08/charting-the-current-us-downturn/#comment-128905 locococo Wed, 08 Apr 2009 21:52:44 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5121#comment-128905 Yes the second diiip would be bad but the new gamming committee will vote the credit events as no events (according to FX needs), toxic assets as healthy and stable (according to brand new models), AIG will get replaced by combination of FDIC & GF and the new secretary was just prevented from blocking the Fed custody holdings` (planned) transfer to his account. Just in case. Yes the second diiip would be bad but the new gamming committee will vote the credit events as no events (according to FX needs), toxic assets as healthy and stable (according to brand new models), AIG will get replaced by combination of FDIC & GF and the new secretary was just prevented from blocking the Fed custody holdings` (planned) transfer to his account. Just in case.

]]> By: Bob_in_MA http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/08/charting-the-current-us-downturn/#comment-128904 Bob_in_MA Wed, 08 Apr 2009 20:10:34 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5121#comment-128904 Brad, While it's certainly true that the monetary and fiscal response has been much more dramatic, there are some signs that some of this may be counterproductive. China is spending a lot supporting manufacturing, exports, shipbuilding, commodities and even industrial investment at a time of severe over-capacity. And much of the spending here seems to be to encourage already heavily indebted consumers to borrow more than they would otherwise. What happens if after 2 years of this, the fiscal and monetary policies have prevented a much more pronounced collapse, but the American consumer's debt-to-income has risen and excess industrial capacity around the world has likewise increased? A second dip then would be REALLY bad... Brad,

While it’s certainly true that the monetary and fiscal response has been much more dramatic, there are some signs that some of this may be counterproductive.

China is spending a lot supporting manufacturing, exports, shipbuilding, commodities and even industrial investment at a time of severe over-capacity.

And much of the spending here seems to be to encourage already heavily indebted consumers to borrow more than they would otherwise.

What happens if after 2 years of this, the fiscal and monetary policies have prevented a much more pronounced collapse, but the American consumer’s debt-to-income has risen and excess industrial capacity around the world has likewise increased? A second dip then would be REALLY bad…

]]> By: bsetser http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/08/charting-the-current-us-downturn/#comment-128903 bsetser Wed, 08 Apr 2009 19:13:56 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5121#comment-128903 the global trade collapse is striking and it should be really striking once we get solid q1 09 data. the global trade collapse is striking and it should be really striking once we get solid q1 09 data.

]]> By: SG Hammer http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/08/charting-the-current-us-downturn/#comment-128901 SG Hammer Wed, 08 Apr 2009 17:11:41 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5121#comment-128901 The quickness of the downturn is directly a function of information processing that allows business to respond more quickly and efficiently. No one should be surprised at this. The quickness of the downturn is directly a function of information processing that allows business to respond more quickly and efficiently. No one should be surprised at this.

]]> By: jonathan http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/08/charting-the-current-us-downturn/#comment-128898 jonathan Wed, 08 Apr 2009 15:54:28 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5121#comment-128898 The graphs you didn't include above are really striking: the global trade collapse, the spiking unemployment, non-farm payroll. The ISM graph is in line with all the other predictive measures, which say the future looks really sucky. The graphs are really cool and I love the additional context of best-worst dotted lines. The graphs you didn’t include above are really striking: the global trade collapse, the spiking unemployment, non-farm payroll. The ISM graph is in line with all the other predictive measures, which say the future looks really sucky.

The graphs are really cool and I love the additional context of best-worst dotted lines.

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