Comments on: The US is exporting its recession (by not importing) http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/09/the-us-is-exporting-its-recession-by-not-importing-the-february-trade-data/ Thu, 14 Oct 2010 13:09:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: What Does the Collapse of US Imports and Exports Signify? | Bear Market Investments http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/09/the-us-is-exporting-its-recession-by-not-importing-the-february-trade-data/#comment-130010 What Does the Collapse of US Imports and Exports Signify? | Bear Market Investments Wed, 06 May 2009 03:35:10 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5128#comment-130010 [...] an earlier post, I discussed the startling decline in US imports [0]. Brad Setser has also reported on this phenomenon. This decline is not restricted to the United States, as noted [...] [...] an earlier post, I discussed the startling decline in US imports [0]. Brad Setser has also reported on this phenomenon. This decline is not restricted to the United States, as noted [...]

]]> By: What Does the Collapse of US Imports and Exports Collapse Signify? | Economist Blog http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/09/the-us-is-exporting-its-recession-by-not-importing-the-february-trade-data/#comment-129977 What Does the Collapse of US Imports and Exports Collapse Signify? | Economist Blog Tue, 05 May 2009 15:03:42 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5128#comment-129977 [...] an earlier post, I discussed the startling decline in US imports [0]. Brad Setser has also reported on this phenomenon. This decline is not restricted to the United States, as noted [...] [...] an earlier post, I discussed the startling decline in US imports [0]. Brad Setser has also reported on this phenomenon. This decline is not restricted to the United States, as noted [...]

]]> By: What Does the Collapse of US Imports and Exports Collapse Signify? | Bear Market Investments http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/09/the-us-is-exporting-its-recession-by-not-importing-the-february-trade-data/#comment-129975 What Does the Collapse of US Imports and Exports Collapse Signify? | Bear Market Investments Tue, 05 May 2009 14:02:27 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5128#comment-129975 [...] an earlier post, I discussed the startling decline in US imports [0]. Brad Setser has also reported on this phenomenon. This decline is not restricted to the United States, as noted [...] [...] an earlier post, I discussed the startling decline in US imports [0]. Brad Setser has also reported on this phenomenon. This decline is not restricted to the United States, as noted [...]

]]> By: DOR http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/09/the-us-is-exporting-its-recession-by-not-importing-the-february-trade-data/#comment-129284 DOR Sun, 19 Apr 2009 07:04:45 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5128#comment-129284 China won't devalue, if only because the current situation isn't one of falling competitiveness, but of failing demand. China won’t devalue, if only because the current situation isn’t one of falling competitiveness, but of failing demand.

]]> By: Geither: China not as bad as we thought « Soft Balancing http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/09/the-us-is-exporting-its-recession-by-not-importing-the-february-trade-data/#comment-129137 Geither: China not as bad as we thought « Soft Balancing Wed, 15 Apr 2009 23:06:31 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5128#comment-129137 [...] the dollar and US debt).  Either way, they’ll be happy to know the trade deficit is rapidly decreasing. Posted in Uncategorized. No Comments [...] [...] the dollar and US debt).  Either way, they’ll be happy to know the trade deficit is rapidly decreasing. Posted in Uncategorized. No Comments [...]

]]> By: Personal Effects » Blog Archive http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/09/the-us-is-exporting-its-recession-by-not-importing-the-february-trade-data/#comment-129021 Personal Effects » Blog Archive Mon, 13 Apr 2009 11:33:52 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5128#comment-129021 [...] Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » The US is exporting its recession (by not importing... [...] [...] Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » The US is exporting its recession (by not importing… [...]

]]> By: annonymous http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/09/the-us-is-exporting-its-recession-by-not-importing-the-february-trade-data/#comment-129003 annonymous Sun, 12 Apr 2009 05:22:05 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5128#comment-129003 Re: Declining oil imports. One other reason for the decline in oil imports the first two months this year is because domestic production has increased by some 10% since the start of the year, thanks to a couple of large Gulf of Mexico projects starting up. Scroll to the bottom of the page and look at the jump in production, particularly the big jump the first week of February: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wcrfpus2w.htm Look for domestic production to go up by about another 100K barrels/day by the end of the year, unless oil falls back to $40 or less and stays there. Either way, that will ease the oil import tab going through the year. Re: Declining oil imports.

One other reason for the decline in oil imports the first two months this year is because domestic production has increased by some 10% since the start of the year, thanks to a couple of large Gulf of Mexico projects starting up.

Scroll to the bottom of the page and look at the jump in production, particularly the big jump the first week of February:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wcrfpus2w.htm

Look for domestic production to go up by about another 100K barrels/day by the end of the year, unless oil falls back to $40 or less and stays there. Either way, that will ease the oil import tab going through the year.

]]> By: PrahaPartizan http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/09/the-us-is-exporting-its-recession-by-not-importing-the-february-trade-data/#comment-128975 PrahaPartizan Sat, 11 Apr 2009 05:19:54 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5128#comment-128975 <blockquote cite="...aren’t a large portion of US goods exports these days things that may not count as “oil” but are also not traditional finished goods? I’m specifically thinking of residual fuel oil and gold. Residual counts as a “product” but is actually garbage - we can’t burn high-sulfur fuel oil here, so we ship it to Singapore where it is put onto ships..."> Dave, I believe that most of the US refineries don't produce that much residual fuel oil these days. Cracking technology now reduces most of those long chains into higher-value cuts. Further, the refineries in the US don't even like to use high-sulfur crudes because they contaminate the entire distillation process and make it difficult to produce sweet cuts. I would agree with you that much of US export product is in alternative products, but I'm thinking scrap materials like metals, paper and wood.

Dave, I believe that most of the US refineries don’t produce that much residual fuel oil these days. Cracking technology now reduces most of those long chains into higher-value cuts. Further, the refineries in the US don’t even like to use high-sulfur crudes because they contaminate the entire distillation process and make it difficult to produce sweet cuts. I would agree with you that much of US export product is in alternative products, but I’m thinking scrap materials like metals, paper and wood.

]]> By: ShortWoman» Blog Archive » My Shorties Valentine 3-D http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/09/the-us-is-exporting-its-recession-by-not-importing-the-february-trade-data/#comment-128957 ShortWoman» Blog Archive » My Shorties Valentine 3-D Fri, 10 Apr 2009 18:10:39 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5128#comment-128957 [...] Lining?: The current economic woes are having one good effect. It’s sharply reducing the trade deficit. We’re already down to levels not seen since [...] [...] Lining?: The current economic woes are having one good effect. It’s sharply reducing the trade deficit. We’re already down to levels not seen since [...]

]]> By: Dave http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/09/the-us-is-exporting-its-recession-by-not-importing-the-february-trade-data/#comment-128953 Dave Fri, 10 Apr 2009 14:46:18 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5128#comment-128953 Brad, aren't a large portion of US goods exports these days things that may not count as "oil" but are also not traditional finished goods? I'm specifically thinking of residual fuel oil and gold. Residual counts as a "product" but is actually garbage - we can't burn high-sulfur fuel oil here, so we ship it to Singapore where it is put onto ships. If you take fuel oil, distillates, gold and other scrap products out of the trade figures, what do the exports look like? Brad, aren’t a large portion of US goods exports these days things that may not count as “oil” but are also not traditional finished goods? I’m specifically thinking of residual fuel oil and gold. Residual counts as a “product” but is actually garbage – we can’t burn high-sulfur fuel oil here, so we ship it to Singapore where it is put onto ships. If you take fuel oil, distillates, gold and other scrap products out of the trade figures, what do the exports look like?

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