Comments on: Minus twenty, minus twenty, minus twenty … http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/05/13/minus-twenty-minus-twenty-minus-twenty/ Thu, 14 Oct 2010 13:09:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » The Chinese puzzle: why is China growing with other export powerhouses aren’t? http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/05/13/minus-twenty-minus-twenty-minus-twenty/#comment-131668 Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » The Chinese puzzle: why is China growing with other export powerhouses aren’t? Tue, 09 Jun 2009 14:16:54 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5371#comment-131668 [...] a pickup in imports (and it clearly spurred auto sales). But China’s import data also suggest a quite sharp slowdown last fall, far larger than the slump in the official [...] [...] a pickup in imports (and it clearly spurred auto sales). But China’s import data also suggest a quite sharp slowdown last fall, far larger than the slump in the official [...]

]]> By: Geo-Graphics » Blog Archive » World Trade http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/05/13/minus-twenty-minus-twenty-minus-twenty/#comment-130568 Geo-Graphics » Blog Archive » World Trade Tue, 19 May 2009 13:15:50 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5371#comment-130568 [...] Setser: Minus Twenty FT: World Trade Willis: U.S. Economy-Trade Gap Widens as Exports Decrease Gongloff: Can China’s Consumers Replaces the U.S.’s? Winning: Euro Zone Posts Trade Surplus [...] [...] Setser: Minus Twenty FT: World Trade Willis: U.S. Economy-Trade Gap Widens as Exports Decrease Gongloff: Can China’s Consumers Replaces the U.S.’s? Winning: Euro Zone Posts Trade Surplus [...]

]]> By: DOR http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/05/13/minus-twenty-minus-twenty-minus-twenty/#comment-130409 DOR Sat, 16 May 2009 01:38:12 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5371#comment-130409 Uncle Bill, Mental Widget, Hong Kong’s labor data are here (http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hong_kong_statistics/statistical_tables/index.jsp?charsetID=1&subjectID=2&tableID=006), but they won’t tell you much about what’s happening in other parts of China. = = = = = Howard Richman, Chinese imports are an excellent indicator of what’s happening with Chinese exports. That’s about all, really. Not a good indicator of the domestic economy at all. = = = = = BSetser, -21.3% in Dec, (Jan: CNY seasonality), -23.2% in Feb, -24.9% in Mar, -22.8% in Apr: Within the margin of error, there has been no improvement in China’s imports, just month after month of the same thing. = = = = = Cedric Regula, As usual, China is shipping all those exports to Asia and Europe. Percent Share of China’s Exports - - - - - - - - To Asia - - To Europe - - To USA Q1 2008 - - - 48.9% - - - 24.3% - - - - - 18.9% Q1 2009 - - - 48.7% - - - 22.7% - - - - - 20.2% = = = = = purple, The problem with China-Japan trade data is that each side claims the other is running a large surplus. Uncle Bill, Mental Widget,

Hong Kong’s labor data are here (http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hong_kong_statistics/statistical_tables/index.jsp?charsetID=1&subjectID=2&tableID=006), but they won’t tell you much about what’s happening in other parts of China.

= = = = =

Howard Richman,
Chinese imports are an excellent indicator of what’s happening with Chinese exports. That’s about all, really. Not a good indicator of the domestic economy at all.

= = = = =

BSetser,
-21.3% in Dec, (Jan: CNY seasonality), -23.2% in Feb, -24.9% in Mar, -22.8% in Apr: Within the margin of error, there has been no improvement in China’s imports, just month after month of the same thing.

= = = = =

Cedric Regula,

As usual, China is shipping all those exports to Asia and Europe.
Percent Share of China’s Exports
– - – - – - – - To Asia – - To Europe – - To USA
Q1 2008 – - – 48.9% – - – 24.3% – - – - – 18.9%
Q1 2009 – - – 48.7% – - – 22.7% – - – - – 20.2%

= = = = =

purple,

The problem with China-Japan trade data is that each side claims the other is running a large surplus.

]]> By: purple http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/05/13/minus-twenty-minus-twenty-minus-twenty/#comment-130358 purple Fri, 15 May 2009 08:01:14 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5371#comment-130358 <i>In the not so distant future, while per capita income will likely never catch up to the West due to its billion plus population, China will soon regain its historic economic position as the World Largest Economy from 1200-1900 AD.</i> China should worry about getting its per-cap GDP (PPP) significantly higher than heavyweights like Angola and Egypt before it worries about the West. Growing inequality between the coastal and interior regions (where few Westerners go) is a very real threat to the central government's authority - as it has been throughout history. In the not so distant future, while per capita income will likely never catch up to the West due to its billion plus population, China will soon regain its historic economic position as the World Largest Economy from 1200-1900 AD.

China should worry about getting its per-cap GDP (PPP) significantly higher than heavyweights like Angola and Egypt before it worries about the West.

Growing inequality between the coastal and interior regions (where few Westerners go) is a very real threat to the central government’s authority – as it has been throughout history.

]]> By: purple http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/05/13/minus-twenty-minus-twenty-minus-twenty/#comment-130356 purple Fri, 15 May 2009 07:54:45 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5371#comment-130356 One can also look at Japan's export data to China. One can also look at Japan’s export data to China.

]]> By: inflatione/deflation - Boligdebatten.dk http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/05/13/minus-twenty-minus-twenty-minus-twenty/#comment-130280 inflatione/deflation - Boligdebatten.dk Thu, 14 May 2009 07:35:44 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5371#comment-130280 [...] man kan supplerer med et indl [...] man kan supplerer med et indl

]]> By: Uncle Billy, Mental Widget http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/05/13/minus-twenty-minus-twenty-minus-twenty/#comment-130279 Uncle Billy, Mental Widget Thu, 14 May 2009 06:46:00 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5371#comment-130279 Twofish: Thankyou -- he focuses in on the migrant workers which is informative, and notes a few times that he doesn't think they will take to the streets. I was thinking that there might be some central registry for their unemployed. Maybe as the rfid cards become more widely used they will begin to track this (though I imagine the rest of the world would get a very distorted view of true levels of employment). Does anyone know if Hong Kong has been hit as hard as Manhattan, labor-wise? Twofish: Thankyou — he focuses in on the migrant workers which is informative, and notes a few times that he doesn’t think they will take to the streets. I was thinking that there might be some central registry for their unemployed. Maybe as the rfid cards become more widely used they will begin to track this (though I imagine the rest of the world would get a very distorted view of true levels of employment). Does anyone know if Hong Kong has been hit as hard as Manhattan, labor-wise?

]]> By: Additional Reflections on the March Trade Release http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/05/13/minus-twenty-minus-twenty-minus-twenty/#comment-130278 Additional Reflections on the March Trade Release Thu, 14 May 2009 06:43:27 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5371#comment-130278 [...] year-on-year rate is -15.4%. So here, I’m in agreement with Brad Setser’s observations [1], [2] — trade has collapsed and there’s little evidence that there’s an incipient [...] [...] year-on-year rate is -15.4%. So here, I’m in agreement with Brad Setser’s observations [1], [2] — trade has collapsed and there’s little evidence that there’s an incipient [...]

]]> By: Additional Reflections on the March Trade Release | Economist Blog http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/05/13/minus-twenty-minus-twenty-minus-twenty/#comment-130276 Additional Reflections on the March Trade Release | Economist Blog Thu, 14 May 2009 02:48:34 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5371#comment-130276 [...] year-on-year rate is -15.4%. So here, I’m in agreement with Brad Setser’s observations [1], [2] — trade has collapsed and there’s little evidence that there’s an incipient [...] [...] year-on-year rate is -15.4%. So here, I’m in agreement with Brad Setser’s observations [1], [2] — trade has collapsed and there’s little evidence that there’s an incipient [...]

]]> By: Additional Reflections on the March Trade Release | 1800blogger http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/05/13/minus-twenty-minus-twenty-minus-twenty/#comment-130274 Additional Reflections on the March Trade Release | 1800blogger Thu, 14 May 2009 02:48:14 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5371#comment-130274 [...] year-on-year rate is -15.4%. So here, I’m in agreement with Brad Setser’s observations [1], [2] — trade has collapsed and there’s little evidence that there’s an incipient [...] [...] year-on-year rate is -15.4%. So here, I’m in agreement with Brad Setser’s observations [1], [2] — trade has collapsed and there’s little evidence that there’s an incipient [...]

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