Comments on: Investment up over 30%, imports down 25%?

By: emenot

emenot — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 15:52:28 +0000

Communism is all about properganda, Chinese proverb: “Warning to the east, but attack the west”……..Disinformation and deciet is the name of the communist game…WAKE UP WORLD!!!!!!

By: Fixed Asset Software

Fixed Asset Software — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 21:10:34 +0000

During a fixed asset inventory while using fixed asset software, a company can validate assets and maintenance equipment to make sure that assets are working in top conditions at all times.

By: » Co naprawdę dzieje się w chińskiej gospodarce? Cz: I Trystero: Niezależny blog finansowy

Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:20:46 +0000

[...] inwestycji w sektorze nieruchomości oraz początkowa faza boomu inwestycyjnego wyjasnia paradoks wzrostu inwestycji kapitałowych o ponad 30% przy jednoczesnym spadku importu o 25% (swoje dołożyły ceny surowców). Wzrost konsumpcji indywidualnej tłumaczy wzrost produkcji [...]

By: » Co naprawdę dzieje się w chińskiej gospodarce? Cz: II Trystero: Niezależny blog finansowy

Thu, 18 Jun 2009 11:49:24 +0000

By: Gabor

Gabor — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 06:41:16 +0000

And this also explains why it will be damn hard if not impossible for China to change for the consumption led model.
If wages grow, or redistribution grows, corporate profits will disappear, and the investment boom goes into bust, which can potentially cause a sharper fall in GDP, then consumption induced growth .
Catch 22.

By: Gabor

Gabor — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 06:33:49 +0000

Yes, you are right. In fact it seems like the conclusion is quite the opposite to what I said.
Chinese companies have very low return on their assets (commpared to their fast depreciation), and it can only be made profitable by low wages. Wages are low, because labour is abundant.
That makes it possible for companies to invest so much. If labour costs were higher they should use loans to finance investment, which would pose a higher profitability threshold.

I checked the bond number, the 2 trn figure was bond outstanding the growth was around 300 bn according to the source.

By: Thomas

Thomas — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 19:34:42 +0000

@Gabor

Depreciation doesn’t necessarily mean “hidden profits”: Chinese companies have invested lots and lots for many years, and there is lots of “normal” depreciation taking place. It’s not like Chinese machines and buildings are built to last for many decades…

But no matter if it’s “real depreciation” or “hidden profits”, in any case it provides them with cash flows to make more investments.

As for corporate bond issues: I agree the number sounds high. I quoted it from the source you yourself had used (the NBoS press release).

By: Howard Richman

Howard Richman — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 16:55:24 +0000

Greg wrote: “That [4.5%] unemployment rate is the urban unemployment rate. The supposedly 20 million migrant workers who have lost their jobs since the economic crisis are not counted in the official unemployment rate. This is because they don’t have the urban residential status and, officially, they’re farmers and are entitled a piece of land in their home to.”

You really have to admire the creativity of China’s statisticians. They met the 4.5% target.

By: Doubts On China’s Trade Numbers

Doubts On China’s Trade Numbers — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 16:37:53 +0000

[...] are Brad Setser’s thoughts: Investment booms fueled by a surge in domestic lending usually lead to import booms. That [...]

By: Doubts On China’s Trade Numbers | But Then What

Doubts On China’s Trade Numbers | But Then What — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 16:19:03 +0000

[...] are Brad Setser’s thoughts: Investment booms fueled by a surge in domestic lending usually lead to import [...]