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	<title>Comments on: Where is the spillover?  China&#8217;s stimulus isn&#8217;t doing much to support Japanese demand</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/06/24/where-is-the-spillover-chinas-stimulus-isnt-doing-much-to-support-japanese-demand/</link>
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	<lastBuildDate>Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:40:10 -0500</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Senuke Discount</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/06/24/where-is-the-spillover-chinas-stimulus-isnt-doing-much-to-support-japanese-demand/#comment-134606</link>
		<dc:creator>Senuke Discount</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:38:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5727#comment-134606</guid>
		<description>&lt;strong&gt;Senuke Bonus...&lt;/strong&gt;

[...] fantastic site to the subject of senuke, however they dont have a discount... [...]...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Senuke Bonus&#8230;</strong></p>
<p>[...] fantastic site to the subject of senuke, however they dont have a discount&#8230; [...]&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Twofish</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/06/24/where-is-the-spillover-chinas-stimulus-isnt-doing-much-to-support-japanese-demand/#comment-132567</link>
		<dc:creator>Twofish</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Jun 2009 13:31:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5727#comment-132567</guid>
		<description>plschwartz asks: Why should we continue to allow China to expand at our expense?

Who is &quot;we&quot;?  The reason that corporations act in the way that they do with respect to China is that they make a lot of money doing so.  The reason that governments act in the way that they do with respect to China is that the political process has come up with the decision that Chinese growth isn&#039;t at the expense of the West.

If it was obvious to everyone that Chinese growth is happening at the expense of the West, then there would be more vigorous efforts to stop that growth.  It&#039;s not.

The other thing is that suppose you were to conclude that Chinese growth is a bad thing.  What&#039;s the policy?  Bomb Beijing?

plschwartz: There is little indication that as China has grown it also has grown more willing to &quot;play fair.&quot; 

China like every other nation in the world include the United States and European states does whatever it thinks it is in its interests.  &quot;Fairness&quot; is just a marketing term, and if you can define &quot;fair&quot; you&#039;ve basically won, since in international politics &quot;fair&quot; means whatever is good for me.

There&#039;s no reason to believe that China does anything out of altruism, but if you think that the US or Europe does anything out of atruism or anything in the Chinese interest, you are deluding yourself.  

plschwartz: That is to accept that cooperation will in the long run be most beneficial.

Except that it may not be.  There are some areas in which China, the US, or the EU would benefit by being assertive and increasing conflict.  But this doesn&#039;t have to a bad thing.  It&#039;s possible in both business and politics to shake one set of hands, and then try to stab someone in the back with the other set.  China, the US, the EU can cooperating in some areas and at the same time fight each other in others.

plschwartz: The way the two sets of growth rates are going we will continue to decrease our share of global wealth.

Who is &quot;we&quot;?  If you mean &quot;we Americans&quot; or &quot;we Westerners&quot; then you have a problem then I&#039;m as American or a Westerner than you are.

And short of nuking China, you aren&#039;t going to stop China and India from having a higher share of global wealth.  

plschwartz: I suggest that we seriously consider redrawing the Bamboo curtain. That is cut China completely out of the economic loop.

Who is &quot;we&quot;?

Also, you show this to any CEO of any multinational and they will say &quot;are you freaking nuts?  If China grows, I will make money.&quot;

You can try to appeal to nationalism, but talking about American self-interest isn&#039;t going to get you far if the CEO is German, and if the CEO is Chinese-American, then you really have problems.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>plschwartz asks: Why should we continue to allow China to expand at our expense?</p>
<p>Who is &#8220;we&#8221;?  The reason that corporations act in the way that they do with respect to China is that they make a lot of money doing so.  The reason that governments act in the way that they do with respect to China is that the political process has come up with the decision that Chinese growth isn&#8217;t at the expense of the West.</p>
<p>If it was obvious to everyone that Chinese growth is happening at the expense of the West, then there would be more vigorous efforts to stop that growth.  It&#8217;s not.</p>
<p>The other thing is that suppose you were to conclude that Chinese growth is a bad thing.  What&#8217;s the policy?  Bomb Beijing?</p>
<p>plschwartz: There is little indication that as China has grown it also has grown more willing to &#8220;play fair.&#8221; </p>
<p>China like every other nation in the world include the United States and European states does whatever it thinks it is in its interests.  &#8220;Fairness&#8221; is just a marketing term, and if you can define &#8220;fair&#8221; you&#8217;ve basically won, since in international politics &#8220;fair&#8221; means whatever is good for me.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s no reason to believe that China does anything out of altruism, but if you think that the US or Europe does anything out of atruism or anything in the Chinese interest, you are deluding yourself.  </p>
<p>plschwartz: That is to accept that cooperation will in the long run be most beneficial.</p>
<p>Except that it may not be.  There are some areas in which China, the US, or the EU would benefit by being assertive and increasing conflict.  But this doesn&#8217;t have to a bad thing.  It&#8217;s possible in both business and politics to shake one set of hands, and then try to stab someone in the back with the other set.  China, the US, the EU can cooperating in some areas and at the same time fight each other in others.</p>
<p>plschwartz: The way the two sets of growth rates are going we will continue to decrease our share of global wealth.</p>
<p>Who is &#8220;we&#8221;?  If you mean &#8220;we Americans&#8221; or &#8220;we Westerners&#8221; then you have a problem then I&#8217;m as American or a Westerner than you are.</p>
<p>And short of nuking China, you aren&#8217;t going to stop China and India from having a higher share of global wealth.  </p>
<p>plschwartz: I suggest that we seriously consider redrawing the Bamboo curtain. That is cut China completely out of the economic loop.</p>
<p>Who is &#8220;we&#8221;?</p>
<p>Also, you show this to any CEO of any multinational and they will say &#8220;are you freaking nuts?  If China grows, I will make money.&#8221;</p>
<p>You can try to appeal to nationalism, but talking about American self-interest isn&#8217;t going to get you far if the CEO is German, and if the CEO is Chinese-American, then you really have problems.</p>
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		<title>By: Where is the spillover? China’s stimulus isn’t doing much to support Japanese demand &#124; Mortgage Loans Equity .Net - Home Mortgage, Home Loans, Home Equity &#38; Mortgage refinancing</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/06/24/where-is-the-spillover-chinas-stimulus-isnt-doing-much-to-support-japanese-demand/#comment-132523</link>
		<dc:creator>Where is the spillover? China’s stimulus isn’t doing much to support Japanese demand &#124; Mortgage Loans Equity .Net - Home Mortgage, Home Loans, Home Equity &#38; Mortgage refinancing</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:35:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5727#comment-132523</guid>
		<description>[...] Read more here - Where is the spillover? China’s stimulus isn’t doing much to support Japanese demand [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Read more here &#8211; Where is the spillover? China’s stimulus isn’t doing much to support Japanese demand [...]</p>
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		<title>By: plschwartz</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/06/24/where-is-the-spillover-chinas-stimulus-isnt-doing-much-to-support-japanese-demand/#comment-132511</link>
		<dc:creator>plschwartz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Jun 2009 04:20:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5727#comment-132511</guid>
		<description>The global economy now not inflated by the US consumption bubble, is nearly a zero-sum situation. As we have seen, as China has gotten wealthier, its share has had to be taken away from the first world.
Why should we continue to allow China to expand at our expense?
I pose that as a question in all honesty. There is little indication that as China has grown it also has grown more willing to &quot;play fair&quot;. That is to accept that cooperation will in the long run be most beneficial.
The way the two sets of growth rates are going we will continue to decrease our share of global wealth.
I suggest that we seriously consider redrawing the Bamboo curtain. That is cut China completely out of the economic loop.
It may be a painful dislocation. But so is the death by a thousand cuts that is in progress now.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The global economy now not inflated by the US consumption bubble, is nearly a zero-sum situation. As we have seen, as China has gotten wealthier, its share has had to be taken away from the first world.<br />
Why should we continue to allow China to expand at our expense?<br />
I pose that as a question in all honesty. There is little indication that as China has grown it also has grown more willing to &#8220;play fair&#8221;. That is to accept that cooperation will in the long run be most beneficial.<br />
The way the two sets of growth rates are going we will continue to decrease our share of global wealth.<br />
I suggest that we seriously consider redrawing the Bamboo curtain. That is cut China completely out of the economic loop.<br />
It may be a painful dislocation. But so is the death by a thousand cuts that is in progress now.</p>
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		<title>By: Rien Huizer</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/06/24/where-is-the-spillover-chinas-stimulus-isnt-doing-much-to-support-japanese-demand/#comment-132508</link>
		<dc:creator>Rien Huizer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Jun 2009 02:35:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5727#comment-132508</guid>
		<description>Too much fed,

&quot;IMO, the chinese have NO INTENTION of helping the high wage countries/geographies, especailly Europe, the USA, and Japan.

The only high wage place would be Australia, only because they want the resources.&quot;

You seem to imply that &quot;the chinese&quot; do not understand their self interest in increasing international trade. Or they believe in a different kind of economics than most of us do.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Too much fed,</p>
<p>&#8220;IMO, the chinese have NO INTENTION of helping the high wage countries/geographies, especailly Europe, the USA, and Japan.</p>
<p>The only high wage place would be Australia, only because they want the resources.&#8221;</p>
<p>You seem to imply that &#8220;the chinese&#8221; do not understand their self interest in increasing international trade. Or they believe in a different kind of economics than most of us do.</p>
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		<title>By: Twofish</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/06/24/where-is-the-spillover-chinas-stimulus-isnt-doing-much-to-support-japanese-demand/#comment-132506</link>
		<dc:creator>Twofish</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Jun 2009 01:31:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5727#comment-132506</guid>
		<description>Also, what the consultant has found is that people blame China for IP violations and conveniently forget that there wouldn&#039;t be much of an incentive for IP violations if Western companies didn&#039;t buy counterfeit products.  One thing that they find is useful is getting vendors lists.  Once they have those, then they go after the people that buy products. Once they get names, they usually find that a few nasty letters causes the profits to dry up.  The important thing is to be specific.  If you just show up in at court and say &quot;do something&quot; nothing is going to happen.  You have to go up to a judge and say that you want X goods seized at Y factory under Z law.

Also Western companies are forming joint ventures with Chinese companies so that they have political and business allies in the Chinese economy. The Chinese government is trying to create aviation companies headquartered in China, but if you look at how it has structured telecommunications and oil, it has no interest in having a single state monopoly, since those companies just don&#039;t work.  It&#039;s in China&#039;s interest to have an internally competitive market, and if Western companies can find dance partners, then they can play in the game.

You can see this in the way that China has responded to the WTO complaints.  China isn&#039;t complaining about US auto parts or aviation restrictions because they don&#039;t want to jeprodize US joint ventures with Chinese companies.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Also, what the consultant has found is that people blame China for IP violations and conveniently forget that there wouldn&#8217;t be much of an incentive for IP violations if Western companies didn&#8217;t buy counterfeit products.  One thing that they find is useful is getting vendors lists.  Once they have those, then they go after the people that buy products. Once they get names, they usually find that a few nasty letters causes the profits to dry up.  The important thing is to be specific.  If you just show up in at court and say &#8220;do something&#8221; nothing is going to happen.  You have to go up to a judge and say that you want X goods seized at Y factory under Z law.</p>
<p>Also Western companies are forming joint ventures with Chinese companies so that they have political and business allies in the Chinese economy. The Chinese government is trying to create aviation companies headquartered in China, but if you look at how it has structured telecommunications and oil, it has no interest in having a single state monopoly, since those companies just don&#8217;t work.  It&#8217;s in China&#8217;s interest to have an internally competitive market, and if Western companies can find dance partners, then they can play in the game.</p>
<p>You can see this in the way that China has responded to the WTO complaints.  China isn&#8217;t complaining about US auto parts or aviation restrictions because they don&#8217;t want to jeprodize US joint ventures with Chinese companies.</p>
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		<title>By: Twofish</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/06/24/where-is-the-spillover-chinas-stimulus-isnt-doing-much-to-support-japanese-demand/#comment-132505</link>
		<dc:creator>Twofish</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Jun 2009 01:18:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5727#comment-132505</guid>
		<description>rj: We had one of our (German) suppliers that was complaining about this copying of their items going on in Chinese-made products. So they went to the Chinese facility and saw copies of their items being made at the plant. 

Did you at this point start videotaping, getting names, and then going to get a court order to shut the plant down?  

The consultant that gave the talk says that they&#039;ve never had a problem getting cooperation from the Chinese legal system to shut things down, once they have done their homework.  The problem is that most companies assume the Chinese legal system is less effective than it actually is, and don&#039;t even try, or else they are unfamilar with Chinese law and they end up filing the wrong papers.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>rj: We had one of our (German) suppliers that was complaining about this copying of their items going on in Chinese-made products. So they went to the Chinese facility and saw copies of their items being made at the plant. </p>
<p>Did you at this point start videotaping, getting names, and then going to get a court order to shut the plant down?  </p>
<p>The consultant that gave the talk says that they&#8217;ve never had a problem getting cooperation from the Chinese legal system to shut things down, once they have done their homework.  The problem is that most companies assume the Chinese legal system is less effective than it actually is, and don&#8217;t even try, or else they are unfamilar with Chinese law and they end up filing the wrong papers.</p>
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		<title>By: Twofish</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/06/24/where-is-the-spillover-chinas-stimulus-isnt-doing-much-to-support-japanese-demand/#comment-132504</link>
		<dc:creator>Twofish</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Jun 2009 01:13:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5727#comment-132504</guid>
		<description>rj: Temporarily, yes. But 10 years from now? Not when the Chinese took all the technology they stole and then design their own airplane to sell to everyone.

At which point Boeing and Airbus will have enough joint ventures and cross-licensing agreements with local manufacturers to keep the Chinese equivalent from taking the whole game.  Also the Chinese equivalent of Boeing is going to also buy into US companies.

rj: But I’m curious, does “know how to use it” a pseudonym for bribery?

No.  What you do is to use private investigators to track down suppliers and the chain of counterfeiting, and once you have done your homework you get a judge to issue a court order to seize the counterfeit goods.  The other thing that is very effective is to go over Western consumers of counterfeit products.  You hire private nvestigators and do undercover work.  Once you get purchaser lists, you then write nasty letters to those companies.

What they have found is that once you&#039;ve done your homework and you have locations of goods to be seized, then the courts, police, and customs are very cooperative.  The problem is that most companies just show up in court and expect people to &quot;do something&quot; without any clear instructions to the judge on what they are supposed to do.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>rj: Temporarily, yes. But 10 years from now? Not when the Chinese took all the technology they stole and then design their own airplane to sell to everyone.</p>
<p>At which point Boeing and Airbus will have enough joint ventures and cross-licensing agreements with local manufacturers to keep the Chinese equivalent from taking the whole game.  Also the Chinese equivalent of Boeing is going to also buy into US companies.</p>
<p>rj: But I’m curious, does “know how to use it” a pseudonym for bribery?</p>
<p>No.  What you do is to use private investigators to track down suppliers and the chain of counterfeiting, and once you have done your homework you get a judge to issue a court order to seize the counterfeit goods.  The other thing that is very effective is to go over Western consumers of counterfeit products.  You hire private nvestigators and do undercover work.  Once you get purchaser lists, you then write nasty letters to those companies.</p>
<p>What they have found is that once you&#8217;ve done your homework and you have locations of goods to be seized, then the courts, police, and customs are very cooperative.  The problem is that most companies just show up in court and expect people to &#8220;do something&#8221; without any clear instructions to the judge on what they are supposed to do.</p>
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		<title>By: DOR</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/06/24/where-is-the-spillover-chinas-stimulus-isnt-doing-much-to-support-japanese-demand/#comment-132503</link>
		<dc:creator>DOR</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Jun 2009 01:12:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5727#comment-132503</guid>
		<description>TwoFish,
We&#039;re playing chess.
The Japanese are playing go.
The Chinese are playing xiangqi.

No wonder we can&#039;t settle anything!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>TwoFish,<br />
We&#8217;re playing chess.<br />
The Japanese are playing go.<br />
The Chinese are playing xiangqi.</p>
<p>No wonder we can&#8217;t settle anything!</p>
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		<title>By: Too Much Fed</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/06/24/where-is-the-spillover-chinas-stimulus-isnt-doing-much-to-support-japanese-demand/#comment-132494</link>
		<dc:creator>Too Much Fed</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Jun 2009 21:58:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5727#comment-132494</guid>
		<description>Title: Where is the spillover? China’s stimulus isn’t doing much to support Japanese demand

Are you assuming it is supposed to help?

IMO, the chinese have NO INTENTION of helping the high wage countries/geographies, especailly Europe, the USA, and Japan.

The only high wage place would be Australia, only because they want the resources.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Title: Where is the spillover? China’s stimulus isn’t doing much to support Japanese demand</p>
<p>Are you assuming it is supposed to help?</p>
<p>IMO, the chinese have NO INTENTION of helping the high wage countries/geographies, especailly Europe, the USA, and Japan.</p>
<p>The only high wage place would be Australia, only because they want the resources.</p>
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