Comments on: Muito Forte

By: Thomas

Thomas — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 17:34:53 +0000

7-year car leases, almost no money down. worst than it was in the US – where car sales went from 10 million a year to 20 million a year (now back to 10).

after 4 years, your car is worth very little (particularly in Brazil) and your debt is still there.

in brazil, cheerleaders say credit a a % of GDP is small (less than 50%) and has a lot of room to grow. it would, if the cost of servicing that debt each year wouldn’t be so high. because of the usury interest rates, brazilians pay 10% of GDP each year to service this debt – a ratio similar to the US!

By: Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » Chinese Handcuffs? No, Chinese trade deficit

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 14:45:13 +0000

[...] And rightly so. It is a huge place, with a robust secular growth force underlying it (remember the conditional convergence growth hypothesis?). Rumors of China doing this or that have become a daily staple of the [...]

By: Muito Forte | Mortgage Loans Equity .Net - Home Mortgage, Home Loans, Home Equity & Mortgage refinancing

Thu, 09 Jul 2009 13:18:01 +0000

[...] Read more here – Muito Forte [...]

By: johnve

johnve — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 07:58:06 +0000

What is ‘Muito Forte’ is that the country has gone through 5 currencies in 20 years and now has estabilished financial stability. And it has been done through the Asian model, exportation and the build up of foreign currency deposits. The decoupling for Brasil at this time will become dependent upon their ability to not rely on growth from Asia and the exporation of iron ore, soya, agricultural products.

By: johnve

johnve — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 07:33:02 +0000

As a follow up …to buy a consumer product in BR you will pay about 13% a month. Credit cards for you average middle class person in BR is about 12% a month, not a year. 144% in comparison to a 22%/yr rate in US.

By: johnve

johnve — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 07:25:59 +0000

This has nothing to do with decoupling. Brazil has reduced their infaltion rate enormously. which has led to a reduction of interest rates in vehicle loans from 15% per month to a more reasonable rate of 6% per month. I live in Brazil and am American and when I tell my friends for the USA the interest rates for a car loan or credit card they are in shock. It is all about affordability, for brasilians it has been improving for the past 6 years but it is still much much more expensive than the US or EU. Imagine the market when a car loan is only! 5% a year.

By: Picture of emerging market vs US « Wasatch Economics

Picture of emerging market vs US « Wasatch Economics — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 04:49:07 +0000

[...] Posted in Uncategorized by Ravenor on July 7, 2009 The data observed in the chartbelow(source) are what one would expect to see when comparing an emerging market to a mature, saturated market [...]

By: Kung.Fu.Panda

Kung.Fu.Panda — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 04:41:20 +0000

The data observed in your chart are what one would expect to see when comparing an emerging market to a mature, saturated market for vehicles like the US. The excessive focus on the US market by the global auto industry has been detrimental to the industry, I think. Designing affordable cars for emerging market consumers rather than pushing overpriced luxury cars into a stagnant developed market should be the rule.

By: Noah

Noah — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 03:35:36 +0000

So the conditional convergence hypothesis started to be true in 2005?

um pouco debil…

By: US, Brazil Vehicle Sales Contrast

US, Brazil Vehicle Sales Contrast — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 01:41:24 +0000

[...] Mark Dow of Pharo Management today posted an interesting vehicle sales chart that shows two time series: the red line is Brazilian vehicle sales going back to 2001 ; the white line is the vehicle sales in the US. The two time series are normalized to Dec 2001, illustrating the apparent contrast in growth rates. As Dow notes, “it paints a powerful picture.” [...]