Comments on: Chinese Reserves: Boiling Over Again? http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/15/chinese-reserves-boiling-over-again/ Thu, 14 Oct 2010 13:09:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Crossover Point for China? http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/15/chinese-reserves-boiling-over-again/#comment-133738 Crossover Point for China? Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:50:20 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5909#comment-133738 [...] trillion was a big story. The second trillion, not so much. It generated a few news stories and blog posts, but not the kind of big feature stories that accompanied China’s first [...] [...] trillion was a big story. The second trillion, not so much. It generated a few news stories and blog posts, but not the kind of big feature stories that accompanied China’s first [...]

]]> By: Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » Two trillion and counting … http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/15/chinese-reserves-boiling-over-again/#comment-133503 Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » Two trillion and counting … Wed, 22 Jul 2009 19:48:31 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5909#comment-133503 [...] trillion was a big story. The second trillion, not so much. It generated a few news stories and blog posts, but not the kind of big feature stories that accompanied China’s first [...] [...] trillion was a big story. The second trillion, not so much. It generated a few news stories and blog posts, but not the kind of big feature stories that accompanied China’s first [...]

]]> By: My faves for the day (July 15, 2009) « ExRussian http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/15/chinese-reserves-boiling-over-again/#comment-133459 My faves for the day (July 15, 2009) « ExRussian Wed, 22 Jul 2009 00:07:37 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5909#comment-133459 [...] Chinese Reserves: Boiling Over Again (Rachel Ziemba at Brad Sester: Follow the Money blog) [...] [...] Chinese Reserves: Boiling Over Again (Rachel Ziemba at Brad Sester: Follow the Money blog) [...]

]]> By: Stimulus Watch | ETF Fool http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/15/chinese-reserves-boiling-over-again/#comment-133449 Stimulus Watch | ETF Fool Tue, 21 Jul 2009 19:54:49 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5909#comment-133449 [...] Stimulus the Chinese way [...] [...] Stimulus the Chinese way [...]

]]> By: My faves for the day (July 15, 2009) « exrussian.com http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/15/chinese-reserves-boiling-over-again/#comment-133441 My faves for the day (July 15, 2009) « exrussian.com Tue, 21 Jul 2009 16:42:17 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5909#comment-133441 [...] Chinese Reserves: Boiling Over Again (Rachel Ziemba at Brad Sester: Follow the Money blog) [...] [...] Chinese Reserves: Boiling Over Again (Rachel Ziemba at Brad Sester: Follow the Money blog) [...]

]]> By: rziemba http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/15/chinese-reserves-boiling-over-again/#comment-133294 rziemba Thu, 16 Jul 2009 13:49:37 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5909#comment-133294 fyi - I'll post on the TIC data later today, but the trends seem to match with reserve growth. Chinese holdings of T-bills surged in May 2009 fyi – I’ll post on the TIC data later today, but the trends seem to match with reserve growth. Chinese holdings of T-bills surged in May 2009

]]> By: rziemba http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/15/chinese-reserves-boiling-over-again/#comment-133293 rziemba Thu, 16 Jul 2009 12:40:25 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5909#comment-133293 Rien- I wish I knew re the IMF report. I know the board discussed it last week so usually it comes out a few weeks after that. It could be around the time of the US China sit down at the end of the month. eh - good point. what the BRICs are doing is utilizing some of their savings to avoid borrowing. Russia in particular is using funds in the reserve fund to limit turning to international markets. but spending the reserves is limited by other policies like a stable exchange rate Qingdao - sorry for being unclear about the time frame. I expect appreciation to follow as a result of inflation Rahul - the challenges to US reserve position are more longer term in nature I'd say. For now the BRICs - and a number of others are being constrained and pushed to buy more dollars Rien- I wish I knew re the IMF report. I know the board discussed it last week so usually it comes out a few weeks after that. It could be around the time of the US China sit down at the end of the month.

eh – good point. what the BRICs are doing is utilizing some of their savings to avoid borrowing. Russia in particular is using funds in the reserve fund to limit turning to international markets. but spending the reserves is limited by other policies like a stable exchange rate

Qingdao – sorry for being unclear about the time frame. I expect appreciation to follow as a result of inflation

Rahul –
the challenges to US reserve position are more longer term in nature I’d say. For now the BRICs – and a number of others are being constrained and pushed to buy more dollars

]]> By: Rahul http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/15/chinese-reserves-boiling-over-again/#comment-133291 Rahul Thu, 16 Jul 2009 09:43:31 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5909#comment-133291 Will such reserve expansion continue? April - June is period where Chinese manufacturers get lot of orders for christmas consumption. (July-Sep is production time - Sep onwards shipping starts) Does anyone have an idea how the orders have been this year? If orders are reasonable (about 50% of peak) then possibly we will have further reserve addition in coming months. In any case I do not foresee a structured unwinding of the USD domination. Hot money / Big hot money will clamour into China forcing its hand. The range of outcomes possible when that happens is mind boggling. But uncertainty is definitely going to be around in near term. Will such reserve expansion continue?

April – June is period where Chinese manufacturers get lot of orders for christmas consumption. (July-Sep is production time – Sep onwards shipping starts)

Does anyone have an idea how the orders have been this year?

If orders are reasonable (about 50% of peak) then possibly we will have further reserve addition in coming months.

In any case I do not foresee a structured unwinding of the USD domination. Hot money / Big hot money will clamour into China forcing its hand.

The range of outcomes possible when that happens is mind boggling. But uncertainty is definitely going to be around in near term.

]]> By: Chinese Reserves: Boiling Over Again? | Mortgage Loans Equity .Net - Home Mortgage, Home Loans, Home Equity & Mortgage refinancing http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/15/chinese-reserves-boiling-over-again/#comment-133281 Chinese Reserves: Boiling Over Again? | Mortgage Loans Equity .Net - Home Mortgage, Home Loans, Home Equity & Mortgage refinancing Thu, 16 Jul 2009 06:04:17 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5909#comment-133281 [...] Read more here - Chinese Reserves: Boiling Over Again? [...] [...] Read more here – Chinese Reserves: Boiling Over Again? [...]

]]> By: Rien Huizer http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/15/chinese-reserves-boiling-over-again/#comment-133280 Rien Huizer Thu, 16 Jul 2009 04:17:26 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5909#comment-133280 Rachel, When will the new IMF country report (rumoured to be circulating in draft form) be published? Rachel,

When will the new IMF country report (rumoured to be circulating in draft form) be published?

]]>