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	<title>Comments on: May TIC Data: Still Buying US Assets But Just the Liquid Ones</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/17/may-tic-data-still-buying-us-assets-but-just-the-liquid-ones/</link>
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		<title>By: For kids &#124; dv8-designs</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/17/may-tic-data-still-buying-us-assets-but-just-the-liquid-ones/#comment-133382</link>
		<dc:creator>For kids &#124; dv8-designs</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2009 03:41:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5918#comment-133382</guid>
		<description>[...] July 19th, 2009 admin Leave a comment Go to comments          The story of stuff and how it&#8217;s currently being played out between the political economies of China and the US (G2 &#8216;Chimerica&#8217;) [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] July 19th, 2009 admin Leave a comment Go to comments          The story of stuff and how it&#8217;s currently being played out between the political economies of China and the US (G2 &#8216;Chimerica&#8217;) [...]</p>
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		<title>By: John McLeod</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/17/may-tic-data-still-buying-us-assets-but-just-the-liquid-ones/#comment-133361</link>
		<dc:creator>John McLeod</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2009 22:30:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5918#comment-133361</guid>
		<description>Rachel,

If I may be allowed to briefly revisit the topic of the above post ...

First, thanks for that bit about Canada leaving government debt to buy into the equities rally.  Do you think the Bank of Canada&#039;s head being a GS alumnus might have anything to do with that?

That squeeze-off of the red zone of Chinese agencies was fascinating.  We&#039;ve been following the foreign central bank holdings of Agency Debt from NY Fed&#039;s weekly H.4.1, and that number had been hovering weirdly just over $800 billion since late December &#039;08, but has now broken below.

Meanwhile cbanks bought enormous piles of treasures in 4 of the last 10 weeks, but about zilch in 2 other weeks in the last 10.  That can&#039;t be healthy, and since the chart of those treasuries holdings has lately been climbing up the wall, the news that the central bankers seem to be leaning towards the door is most disturbing.

Sure looks like a bubble preparing a top.

---------------------------------------
Comment on the off-topic CR &amp; II show ...

I was hoping to borrow Cedric&#039;s &quot;Men in Black&quot; satire in aid of my recent post on the appropriateness of comics at Dept. Treas. (and no, I&#039;m not trying to be sarcastic) but on rereading it I feel it&#039;s not quite, well, comical.

I&#039;ve been interested for some time in how, for example, the IPI &quot;peace&quot; pipeline might change the game East of Eden.  Didn&#039;t learn a whole lot from the above, though.  Too bad, as I&#039;ve been worrying about this stuff &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.poetsagainstthewar.org/displaypoem.asp?AuthorID=26274#453083080&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;for a long time&lt;/a&gt;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rachel,</p>
<p>If I may be allowed to briefly revisit the topic of the above post &#8230;</p>
<p>First, thanks for that bit about Canada leaving government debt to buy into the equities rally.  Do you think the Bank of Canada&#8217;s head being a GS alumnus might have anything to do with that?</p>
<p>That squeeze-off of the red zone of Chinese agencies was fascinating.  We&#8217;ve been following the foreign central bank holdings of Agency Debt from NY Fed&#8217;s weekly H.4.1, and that number had been hovering weirdly just over $800 billion since late December &#8216;08, but has now broken below.</p>
<p>Meanwhile cbanks bought enormous piles of treasures in 4 of the last 10 weeks, but about zilch in 2 other weeks in the last 10.  That can&#8217;t be healthy, and since the chart of those treasuries holdings has lately been climbing up the wall, the news that the central bankers seem to be leaning towards the door is most disturbing.</p>
<p>Sure looks like a bubble preparing a top.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<br />
Comment on the off-topic CR &amp; II show &#8230;</p>
<p>I was hoping to borrow Cedric&#8217;s &#8220;Men in Black&#8221; satire in aid of my recent post on the appropriateness of comics at Dept. Treas. (and no, I&#8217;m not trying to be sarcastic) but on rereading it I feel it&#8217;s not quite, well, comical.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve been interested for some time in how, for example, the IPI &#8220;peace&#8221; pipeline might change the game East of Eden.  Didn&#8217;t learn a whole lot from the above, though.  Too bad, as I&#8217;ve been worrying about this stuff <a href="http://www.poetsagainstthewar.org/displaypoem.asp?AuthorID=26274#453083080" rel="nofollow">for a long time</a>.</p>
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		<title>By: MichaeloBSB</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/17/may-tic-data-still-buying-us-assets-but-just-the-liquid-ones/#comment-133357</link>
		<dc:creator>MichaeloBSB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2009 15:31:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5918#comment-133357</guid>
		<description>re; Cedric &amp; Indian

Thanks for the opportunity to &#039;listen&#039; to 4AM radio talkshow banter during the day !

 Good day all</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>re; Cedric &amp; Indian</p>
<p>Thanks for the opportunity to &#8216;listen&#8217; to 4AM radio talkshow banter during the day !</p>
<p> Good day all</p>
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		<title>By: Cedric Regula</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/17/may-tic-data-still-buying-us-assets-but-just-the-liquid-ones/#comment-133352</link>
		<dc:creator>Cedric Regula</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2009 07:59:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5918#comment-133352</guid>
		<description>Found the link.
http://www.uyghurcongress.org/En/Events.asp?ItemID=-1025900959&amp;rcid=803688565&amp;pcid=1110134820&amp;cid=803688565

This is another human rights organization. Anytime there are mistreated groups in the world, they believe Washington DC is the place to go and air their grievances. In fact, that is why all the space aliens are here. You can imagine how difficult it is for Washington to formulate foreign policy that makes the entire galaxy happy. Just never is going to happen.

But I know from reports of off world activities, many times these oppressed groups take action of their own volition without the express support of Washington.

So I still think it&#039;s possible the riots happened without orders from President Obama, or even a motherly wink from Hillary.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Found the link.<br />
<a href="http://www.uyghurcongress.org/En/Events.asp?ItemID=-1025900959&amp;rcid=803688565&amp;pcid=1110134820&amp;cid=803688565" rel="nofollow">http://www.uyghurcongress.org/En/Events.asp?ItemID=-1025900959&amp;rcid=803688565&amp;pcid=1110134820&amp;cid=803688565</a></p>
<p>This is another human rights organization. Anytime there are mistreated groups in the world, they believe Washington DC is the place to go and air their grievances. In fact, that is why all the space aliens are here. You can imagine how difficult it is for Washington to formulate foreign policy that makes the entire galaxy happy. Just never is going to happen.</p>
<p>But I know from reports of off world activities, many times these oppressed groups take action of their own volition without the express support of Washington.</p>
<p>So I still think it&#8217;s possible the riots happened without orders from President Obama, or even a motherly wink from Hillary.</p>
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		<title>By: Cedric Regula</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/17/may-tic-data-still-buying-us-assets-but-just-the-liquid-ones/#comment-133351</link>
		<dc:creator>Cedric Regula</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2009 07:27:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5918#comment-133351</guid>
		<description>Ok, I give up.

My number one suspect was Al Jazeera has a Chinese language website.

But we have kooks in Congress. What next.

Gotta link to this? Reading the transcripts may be in order, since I may have missed it on CSPAN.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ok, I give up.</p>
<p>My number one suspect was Al Jazeera has a Chinese language website.</p>
<p>But we have kooks in Congress. What next.</p>
<p>Gotta link to this? Reading the transcripts may be in order, since I may have missed it on CSPAN.</p>
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		<title>By: Indian Investor</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/17/may-tic-data-still-buying-us-assets-but-just-the-liquid-ones/#comment-133350</link>
		<dc:creator>Indian Investor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2009 07:14:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5918#comment-133350</guid>
		<description>Cedric, here&#039;re your missing dots:
THE OFFICIAL OPENING CEREMONY OF THE THIRD GENERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE WORLD
UYGHUR CONGRESS

MAY 21, 2009
TIME: 9:30 a.m. - 1:00 p.m.
VENUE: Congressional Meeting Room South
United States Capitol Building
Washington, DC 20515

HOST: Mr. Alim Seytoff, WUC Executive Chairman

09:30 - 09:40 The Official Opening of the General Assembly
09:40 - 09:50 The National Anthems of East Turkestan &amp; the USA
09:50 - 10:00 Ms. Rebiya Kadeer, WUC President
10:00 - 10:10 The Honorable Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Member of Congress
10:10 - 10:25 The Honorable Chris Smith, Member of Congress
10:25 - 10:40 The Honorable Frank Wolf, Member of Congress
10:40 - 10:55 The Honorable Bill Delahunt, Member of Congress
10:55 - 11:10 The Honorable James McGovern, Member of Congress
11:10 - 11:25 The Honorable Sherrod Brown, Member of Senate
11:25 - 11:35 Ms. Barbara Haig, NED Vice-President
11:35 - 11:50 Mr. Hans Hogrefe, Director of TLHRC
11:50 - 12:05 Ms. Kara Abramson, CECC Advocacy Director
12:05 - 12:20 Mr. Marino Busdachin, UNPO General Secretary
12:20 - 12:35 Mr. T. Kumar, Asia Director of Amnesty International USA
12:35 - 12:50 Mr. Bhuchung Tsering, Vice-President of ICT
12:50 - 13:00 Ms. Tienchi, Director of the Laogai Research Foundation</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Cedric, here&#8217;re your missing dots:<br />
THE OFFICIAL OPENING CEREMONY OF THE THIRD GENERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE WORLD<br />
UYGHUR CONGRESS</p>
<p>MAY 21, 2009<br />
TIME: 9:30 a.m. &#8211; 1:00 p.m.<br />
VENUE: Congressional Meeting Room South<br />
United States Capitol Building<br />
Washington, DC 20515</p>
<p>HOST: Mr. Alim Seytoff, WUC Executive Chairman</p>
<p>09:30 &#8211; 09:40 The Official Opening of the General Assembly<br />
09:40 &#8211; 09:50 The National Anthems of East Turkestan &amp; the USA<br />
09:50 &#8211; 10:00 Ms. Rebiya Kadeer, WUC President<br />
10:00 &#8211; 10:10 The Honorable Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Member of Congress<br />
10:10 &#8211; 10:25 The Honorable Chris Smith, Member of Congress<br />
10:25 &#8211; 10:40 The Honorable Frank Wolf, Member of Congress<br />
10:40 &#8211; 10:55 The Honorable Bill Delahunt, Member of Congress<br />
10:55 &#8211; 11:10 The Honorable James McGovern, Member of Congress<br />
11:10 &#8211; 11:25 The Honorable Sherrod Brown, Member of Senate<br />
11:25 &#8211; 11:35 Ms. Barbara Haig, NED Vice-President<br />
11:35 &#8211; 11:50 Mr. Hans Hogrefe, Director of TLHRC<br />
11:50 &#8211; 12:05 Ms. Kara Abramson, CECC Advocacy Director<br />
12:05 &#8211; 12:20 Mr. Marino Busdachin, UNPO General Secretary<br />
12:20 &#8211; 12:35 Mr. T. Kumar, Asia Director of Amnesty International USA<br />
12:35 &#8211; 12:50 Mr. Bhuchung Tsering, Vice-President of ICT<br />
12:50 &#8211; 13:00 Ms. Tienchi, Director of the Laogai Research Foundation</p>
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		<title>By: Indian Investor</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/17/may-tic-data-still-buying-us-assets-but-just-the-liquid-ones/#comment-133349</link>
		<dc:creator>Indian Investor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2009 06:50:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5918#comment-133349</guid>
		<description>Cedric: &quot;Chevron, Exxon, Eni and Total are developing the fields and selling the oil to China. We used to worry that China would do that if they got their hands on any oil fields.&quot;

Me:
The Kumkol fields are owned jointly by China National Petroluem Corporation and Kamunaigas - basically the crude belongs to the Beijing and Astana regimes. Apart from owning huge stakes in the fields, CNPC also owns and operates the new oil pipeline that takes the Kumkol crude to Alashankou. Here&#039;s a link to The Department of Energy list of major oil and gas projects in Kazakhstan:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/kazaproj.html
Kumkol North is owned by Turgai Petroluem, PetroKazakhstan (50%) and Russia&#039;s LukOil. Kumkol South is wholly owned by PetroKazakhstan. In 2005, PetroKazakhstan was acquired by CNPC, and in turn 33.3% stake in PetroKazakhstan was sold to Kazmunaigaz, a Government of Kazakhstan entity.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Cedric: &#8220;Chevron, Exxon, Eni and Total are developing the fields and selling the oil to China. We used to worry that China would do that if they got their hands on any oil fields.&#8221;</p>
<p>Me:<br />
The Kumkol fields are owned jointly by China National Petroluem Corporation and Kamunaigas &#8211; basically the crude belongs to the Beijing and Astana regimes. Apart from owning huge stakes in the fields, CNPC also owns and operates the new oil pipeline that takes the Kumkol crude to Alashankou. Here&#8217;s a link to The Department of Energy list of major oil and gas projects in Kazakhstan:<br />
<a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/kazaproj.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/kazaproj.html</a><br />
Kumkol North is owned by Turgai Petroluem, PetroKazakhstan (50%) and Russia&#8217;s LukOil. Kumkol South is wholly owned by PetroKazakhstan. In 2005, PetroKazakhstan was acquired by CNPC, and in turn 33.3% stake in PetroKazakhstan was sold to Kazmunaigaz, a Government of Kazakhstan entity.</p>
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		<title>By: Cedric Regula</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/17/may-tic-data-still-buying-us-assets-but-just-the-liquid-ones/#comment-133348</link>
		<dc:creator>Cedric Regula</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2009 06:14:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5918#comment-133348</guid>
		<description>Indian:

I found this to be an informative and factual article:
www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/4901

But I don&#039;t see where the author connected the dots to riots in China. And it&#039;s not certain that Poland will get Caspian Sea oil, even tho we all know  that would be a top priority of the USG as a reward for accepting US defensive missles which we can threaten Russia with.

And finally Putin is getting his often wished for result. The new pipeline to China will keep Russia from having to pipeline all the oil from the Caspian Sea. That&#039;s a lot less work for them.

And our Western oil companies are doing exacly what I think they do. Chevron, Exxon, Eni and Total are developing the fields and selling the oil to China. We used to worry that China would do that if they got their hands on any oil fields.

So the last dot to connect is explain why Chinese muslim factory workers are rioting to keep oil out of China and support Dollar Hegemony because the USG government wants them to do that.

Give me a little time on that one.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Indian:</p>
<p>I found this to be an informative and factual article:<br />
<a href="http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/4901" rel="nofollow">http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/4901</a></p>
<p>But I don&#8217;t see where the author connected the dots to riots in China. And it&#8217;s not certain that Poland will get Caspian Sea oil, even tho we all know  that would be a top priority of the USG as a reward for accepting US defensive missles which we can threaten Russia with.</p>
<p>And finally Putin is getting his often wished for result. The new pipeline to China will keep Russia from having to pipeline all the oil from the Caspian Sea. That&#8217;s a lot less work for them.</p>
<p>And our Western oil companies are doing exacly what I think they do. Chevron, Exxon, Eni and Total are developing the fields and selling the oil to China. We used to worry that China would do that if they got their hands on any oil fields.</p>
<p>So the last dot to connect is explain why Chinese muslim factory workers are rioting to keep oil out of China and support Dollar Hegemony because the USG government wants them to do that.</p>
<p>Give me a little time on that one.</p>
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		<title>By: Indian Investor</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/17/may-tic-data-still-buying-us-assets-but-just-the-liquid-ones/#comment-133346</link>
		<dc:creator>Indian Investor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2009 05:40:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5918#comment-133346</guid>
		<description>And who&#039;re all the people interested in disrupting political stability in Xingjiang? From Dr. Cutler&#039;s essay, the stakeholders in the KCTS:
&quot;Parties to this agreement are the national energy trust KazMunaiGaz, TengizChevrOil (the consortium developing the Tengiz field, led by Chevron), and Agip KCO (the consortium developing the Kashagan field, formerly led by Eni: comprising the national company KazMunaiGaz, holding 16.81%; Eni, Total, and ExxonMobil, and Shell, each holding 16.66%; and ConocoPhillips and Inpex, each holding 8.28%).&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And who&#8217;re all the people interested in disrupting political stability in Xingjiang? From Dr. Cutler&#8217;s essay, the stakeholders in the KCTS:<br />
&#8220;Parties to this agreement are the national energy trust KazMunaiGaz, TengizChevrOil (the consortium developing the Tengiz field, led by Chevron), and Agip KCO (the consortium developing the Kashagan field, formerly led by Eni: comprising the national company KazMunaiGaz, holding 16.81%; Eni, Total, and ExxonMobil, and Shell, each holding 16.66%; and ConocoPhillips and Inpex, each holding 8.28%).&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Indian Investor</title>
		<link>http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/17/may-tic-data-still-buying-us-assets-but-just-the-liquid-ones/#comment-133345</link>
		<dc:creator>Indian Investor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2009 05:36:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=5918#comment-133345</guid>
		<description>Cedric, you can read about the considerations that led to the Uyghur riots at this link (http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/4901), an essay by Dr. Robert M Cutler. Dr. Cutler describes the tremendous stakes involved - the conflict between the Kazakhstan Caspian Transportation system and the China National Petroleum Corporation over the Tengiz oil. 
One possibility was &quot;Now that Kazakhstani oil will have another route to the OBP, its flow will be reversed back to the originally intended direction. From Brody, the oil will flow to Plock, Poland, since higher world prices have made this continuation of the OBP economically justifiable to construct; from Plock, an existing pipeline goes to the port of Gdansk and thence to world markets.&quot;
And the other was: &quot;For China to receive Tengiz oil, then, it would need only to build the missing segment from Kenkiyak to Kumkol, and reverse the Aktobe-Atyrau pipeline so that it flows from west to east. The result could eventually boost Chinese imports of Kazakhstani oil from 100,000 to 400,000 bpd, ...&quot;
And what happened, to cause such a massive Washington intervention in Xingjiang?
On July 15, 2009, CNPC made the following announcement in a press release:
&quot;On July 11, the Kenkiyak-Kumkol section of the Kazakhstan-China Oil Pipeline was put into operation.&quot;
http://www.youroilandgasnews.com/cnpc+announces+kenkiyak-kumkol+section+of+kazakhstan-china+oil+pipeline+becomes+operational_35798.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Cedric, you can read about the considerations that led to the Uyghur riots at this link (<a href="http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/4901)" rel="nofollow">http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/4901)</a>, an essay by Dr. Robert M Cutler. Dr. Cutler describes the tremendous stakes involved &#8211; the conflict between the Kazakhstan Caspian Transportation system and the China National Petroleum Corporation over the Tengiz oil.<br />
One possibility was &#8220;Now that Kazakhstani oil will have another route to the OBP, its flow will be reversed back to the originally intended direction. From Brody, the oil will flow to Plock, Poland, since higher world prices have made this continuation of the OBP economically justifiable to construct; from Plock, an existing pipeline goes to the port of Gdansk and thence to world markets.&#8221;<br />
And the other was: &#8220;For China to receive Tengiz oil, then, it would need only to build the missing segment from Kenkiyak to Kumkol, and reverse the Aktobe-Atyrau pipeline so that it flows from west to east. The result could eventually boost Chinese imports of Kazakhstani oil from 100,000 to 400,000 bpd, &#8230;&#8221;<br />
And what happened, to cause such a massive Washington intervention in Xingjiang?<br />
On July 15, 2009, CNPC made the following announcement in a press release:<br />
&#8220;On July 11, the Kenkiyak-Kumkol section of the Kazakhstan-China Oil Pipeline was put into operation.&#8221;<br />
<a href="http://www.youroilandgasnews.com/cnpc+announces+kenkiyak-kumkol+section+of+kazakhstan-china+oil+pipeline+becomes+operational_35798.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.youroilandgasnews.com/cnpc+announces+kenkiyak-kumkol+section+of+kazakhstan-china+oil+pipeline+becomes+operational_35798.html</a></p>
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