Comments on: One time return to blogging http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/09/22/one-time-return-to-blogging/ Thu, 14 Oct 2010 13:09:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Vladimir Atehortúa http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/09/22/one-time-return-to-blogging/#comment-135447 Vladimir Atehortúa Thu, 02 Sep 2010 23:03:22 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=6183#comment-135447 Mr Setzer. I know you moved onto something new, but I really miss your economic hindsight and I wonder if perhaps after a year away you could give us another post of yours, perhaps on the subject of the alleged risk of deflation in the US Economy. Mr Setzer.

I know you moved onto something new, but I really miss your economic hindsight and I wonder if perhaps after a year away you could give us another post of yours, perhaps on the subject of the alleged risk of deflation in the US Economy.

]]> By: John Jones http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/09/22/one-time-return-to-blogging/#comment-135442 John Jones Mon, 30 Aug 2010 23:05:33 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=6183#comment-135442 Bernanke likes to remind everyone that he is an expert on the great depression and knows how to prevent it from happening again in the US. Apparently he is also an expert on Japan and its struggle with chronic deflation following its housing bubble in the 1980's. In fact Bernanke wrote an article in 2000 titled "Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of Self-Induced Paralysis," where he goes on to lecture BOJ officials about what they could and should have done differently in order to to avoid a deflationary outcome. He goes on to postulate that the BOJ was not trying hard enough to stimulate the economy and that 0% interest rates are just one tool to beat deflation. The Fed Chairmen even goes so far as to assert that he knows how to escape a liquidity trap caused by 0% interest rates. The reason I bring this up is because it gives people a good idea of what Bernanke's next move may be. The US is dangerously close to falling into the dreaded "liquidity trap" as deflation takes hold and monetary policy loses its effectiveness. Here are some of his suggestions to the BOJ: http://blackswaninsights.blogspot.com/2010/08/bernanke-explains-how-to-escape.html Bernanke likes to remind everyone that he is an expert on the great depression and knows how to prevent it from happening again in the US. Apparently he is also an expert on Japan and its struggle with chronic deflation following its housing bubble in the 1980′s. In fact Bernanke wrote an article in 2000 titled “Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of Self-Induced Paralysis,” where he goes on to lecture BOJ officials about what they could and should have done differently in order to to avoid a deflationary outcome. He goes on to postulate that the BOJ was not trying hard enough to stimulate the economy and that 0% interest rates are just one tool to beat deflation. The Fed Chairmen even goes so far as to assert that he knows how to escape a liquidity trap caused by 0% interest rates. The reason I bring this up is because it gives people a good idea of what Bernanke’s next move may be. The US is dangerously close to falling into the dreaded “liquidity trap” as deflation takes hold and monetary policy loses its effectiveness.

Here are some of his suggestions to the BOJ:
http://blackswaninsights.blogspot.com/2010/08/bernanke-explains-how-to-escape.html

]]> By: Teething Necklace http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/09/22/one-time-return-to-blogging/#comment-135374 Teething Necklace Mon, 02 Aug 2010 13:25:17 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=6183#comment-135374 I know it's been a while but thanks for a great blog. I know it’s been a while but thanks for a great blog.

]]> By: globumedes http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/09/22/one-time-return-to-blogging/#comment-135218 globumedes Mon, 07 Jun 2010 22:34:23 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=6183#comment-135218 Hallo Mr. Setser I really miss your analysis about the flows of TIC, SWF, ADIA, KIA,GIC,Temasek, Coustodial Holdings, PBoC, Bills and Notes, GDP and debt, .. I mean, i get almost confused without your perspective... And now, there is one more: the Libyan Investment Authority (فاينانشال تايمز http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/06/07/253606/%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B4%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%8A%D9%85%D8%B2/ ) What the hell should i do? (irony!) I hope and am sure you first get a truck-load of information and joy in your daily work and hope second you will soon make the "Simon Johnson" and come back to the forum and help us walking to the desert. Thank you for having told us all your excursions in the economic "big"-world and have a nice day. Hallo Mr. Setser

I really miss your analysis about the flows of TIC, SWF, ADIA, KIA,GIC,Temasek, Coustodial Holdings, PBoC, Bills and Notes, GDP and debt, ..

I mean, i get almost confused without your perspective…

And now, there is one more: the Libyan Investment Authority
(فاينانشال تايمز
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/06/07/253606/%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B4%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%8A%D9%85%D8%B2/ )

What the hell should i do? (irony!)

I hope and am sure you first get a truck-load of information and joy in your daily work
and hope second you will soon make the “Simon Johnson” and come back to the forum and help us walking to the desert.

Thank you for having told us all your excursions in the economic “big”-world and have a nice day.

]]> By: adam madley http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/09/22/one-time-return-to-blogging/#comment-135181 adam madley Thu, 27 May 2010 02:52:46 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=6183#comment-135181 check this link for make money: http://8a1534og0w5t2s3fu8m901m8lm.hop.clickbank.net/ check this link for make money:

http://8a1534og0w5t2s3fu8m901m8lm.hop.clickbank.net/

]]> By: dato http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/09/22/one-time-return-to-blogging/#comment-135173 dato Tue, 25 May 2010 06:33:41 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=6183#comment-135173 Thank you for interesting post Thank you for interesting post

]]> By: Pallj http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/09/22/one-time-return-to-blogging/#comment-134623 Pallj Mon, 30 Nov 2009 09:16:31 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=6183#comment-134623 I knew you would be in the thick of things sooner or later, and I know they got their best man for the job. Missing your blog, but accept that we can't have it both ways. Your blog used to be one of the very best paces to try and understand this world we live in. The sense of inevitability about what has happened in the financial world, and is still in progress, has caused some sleepless nights, but to have seen it coming was a genuine thrill. I would never have felt I was a little bit in the know, if it hadn't been for your blog. If you ever need anything in Iceland, feel free to ask. I knew you would be in the thick of things sooner or later, and I know they got their best man for the job. Missing your blog, but accept that we can’t have it both ways.

Your blog used to be one of the very best paces to try and understand this world we live in. The sense of inevitability about what has happened in the financial world, and is still in progress, has caused some sleepless nights, but to have seen it coming was a genuine thrill. I would never have felt I was a little bit in the know, if it hadn’t been for your blog.

If you ever need anything in Iceland, feel free to ask.

]]> By: A. Dawn http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/09/22/one-time-return-to-blogging/#comment-134598 A. Dawn Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:21:32 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=6183#comment-134598 Glad to see you back, Brad. Hopefully we will see you again. Glad to see you back, Brad. Hopefully we will see you again.

]]> By: Cedric Regula http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/09/22/one-time-return-to-blogging/#comment-134532 Cedric Regula Wed, 07 Oct 2009 21:00:31 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=6183#comment-134532 t, Ya, Iraq is still under 1 trillion, but that still sucks. Problem is the Middle East is not just about energy security. There are other factors. But conventional nuclear can be done for about $5B a GW, once they get started and get some learning curve on Gen 3 and build up the supply chain. The US has 330GW in coal capacity, so 1.65 trillion is the cost to replace it with nuclear. Iraq money would have got us more than halfway there. But even tho the tech is ready to break ground today, we can't build that many before the 2020 timeframe. It takes too long and the entire supply chain, skilled labor, etc...needs to be developed. So for that reason (besides cost) we need some practical way of saving coal plants. There is an MIT study on the CFR site that gets into the details of the feasibility of carbon sequestering. It too is not cheap, and they say someone needs to prove out, develop and operate sequestering sites. I haven't heard the Sierra Club volunteer, so I think that leaves the USG to be the coordinator of that piece of infrastructure. t,

Ya, Iraq is still under 1 trillion, but that still sucks. Problem is the Middle East is not just about energy security. There are other factors.

But conventional nuclear can be done for about $5B a GW, once they get started and get some learning curve on Gen 3 and build up the supply chain. The US has 330GW in coal capacity, so 1.65 trillion is the cost to replace it with nuclear. Iraq money would have got us more than halfway there.

But even tho the tech is ready to break ground today, we can’t build that many before the 2020 timeframe. It takes too long and the entire supply chain, skilled labor, etc…needs to be developed.

So for that reason (besides cost) we need some practical way of saving coal plants. There is an MIT study on the CFR site that gets into the details of the feasibility of carbon sequestering. It too is not cheap, and they say someone needs to prove out, develop and operate sequestering sites. I haven’t heard the Sierra Club volunteer, so I think that leaves the USG to be the coordinator of that piece of infrastructure.

]]> By: t http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/09/22/one-time-return-to-blogging/#comment-134530 t Wed, 07 Oct 2009 16:13:47 +0000 http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/?p=6183#comment-134530 </i> closing italic tag, sorry. closing italic tag, sorry.

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