Or at least it is on Bloomberg.
I wanted to elaborate on three points:
First, the increase in China’s tourism spending, if it is real, is huge. The reported rise in tourism spending by China since 2012 is about equal to the reported fall in Chinese commodity (primary product) imports. A $200 billion move over roughly 2 and a half years (the Chinese data indicates spending by Chinese tourists abroad–imports of travel services in the data–have increased from $120 billion in 2013 to about $315 billion in the last four quarters of data)* is real money.
Second, the timing of the rise corresponds to a change in the methodology used to collect China’s balance of payments data. Most of the jump now shows up in the 2014 data.* SAFE’s presentation to the IMF on the implementation of the IMF’s new balance of payments data standard is remarkably honest; they don’t seem to have any idea if their new data set—based on credit card data and the like—really captures tourism spending abroad, or captures something else.** Under a heading titled “related issues to the new method” SAFE notes:
“For example, some remittance reported as travel in ITRS (International Transactions Reporting System) and some overseas purchases via bank card are actually goods transactions, because the money is used for valuables and durable goods, Sometimes, the money is used for investment abroad, which should be included in financial account. However, without further information, it is hard to identify how much should be allocated to goods item or financial account”
My argument is simple: in correcting for potential problems in the old data, China introduced a new set of problems—and those problems appear to be quite large.
The new method likely moved some financial outflows to the current account, and thus it has had the effect of reducing China’s current account surplus. The large rise in travel imports is a big reason why the gap between China’s goods surplus and its current account surplus is now so large—and in my view, there is growing reason to think that the goods surplus may now be the more accurate measure of China’s impact on the global economy. At least since 2013.