Posted on Tuesday, September 29th, 2009
By Amity Shlaes
This Bloomberg column, “No Swimming Pool in Your Future,” looks at whether the consumer is as much an idiot as current policy of both parties suggests. The article doesn’t totally convey the depth of the data base and, therefore, the value of the findings of the authors (Harvey Rosen, Kristopher Gerardi, Paul Willen). Gerardi and Willen have also coauthored with Andreas Lehnert and Shane Sherlund a Brookings Paper, “Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis.”
The big sense is that in future mortgages will be cheap but unavailable. I’m expecting a sort of rent control phenomenon.
Posted in Uncategorized | 0 Comments »
Posted on Friday, September 25th, 2009
By Amity Shlaes
This article by Michael Ferri in the Journal of Applied Finance provides more evidence that political events, especially the expected outcome of national elections, can move equity markets. His article uses statistical methods to demonstrate that the reversal in expectations of the outcome of the 2004 US Presidential election moved the US equity markets.
Posted in Uncategorized | 0 Comments »
Posted on Friday, September 25th, 2009
By Amity Shlaes
Here’s a recent column by me on whether markets rise when Congress is confused or inactive. Ali Wambold writes in recalling an event that seems to suggest “confusion = good”. On Sept 18, 2008, Bloomberg carried a story announcing Congress would adjourn and that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said “no one knows what to do at the moment. “
Writes Ali: “When it looked like Congress was going to check out, the Dow rose over 770 points in 2 trading days, over 7% (the S&P500 rose about 8.5%). Once Obama, McCain, Barney Frank and Chris Dodd (not a business person among them) checked in over that weekend, most of the gains were unwound in the following two trading days.”
The Wambold Suggestion: “We should consider having part-time legislators like the UK: the less time they have to “do” things, the safer we are.”
Posted in Uncategorized | 0 Comments »
Posted on Thursday, September 3rd, 2009
By Amity Shlaes
This week’s Bloomberg column is on the Sunset movement, which seems to me a good movement for both political parties at this point. John Chachas’s plan to run against Harry Reid is tactically interesting because Nevada has a relatively small population. Rep. Kevin Brady and I connected too late in the day for his quote to make it into the column, but it’s important. “I continue to push for a federal sunset law that would hold all agencies and programs accountable to a sunset date.” In other words, Brady too wants less discretion and more structure in the political process.
Posted in Uncategorized | 0 Comments »
