In his memoir Decision Points, President George W. Bush described his frustration after reading intelligence reports about a growing Taliban sanctuary in Pakistan in the summer of 2008. Bush recalls an encounter with a Navy Seal in Afghanistan in 2006, who said: “Mr. President, we need permission to go kick some ass inside Pakistan.” Read more »

America’s Third War is escalating quickly in the skies over Yemen. Despite previous rebuffs from the White House, last month the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) and the CIA—which both run parallel drone campaigns in Yemen—were granted broad authority to conduct “signature strikes” against anonymous suspected militants, who are determined to support al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) based on the observed “patterns of suspicious behavior” from multiple intelligence sources. Read more »

Nick Paumgarten, “The World of Surveillance,” The New Yorker, May 14, 2012.

Patrick Egan, president of the Silicon Valley chapter of the Association for Unmanned Systems International: “The first time a drone Tases the wrong dude at a Phish concert, you’re going to have problems.” Read more »

As I’ve written previously, policymakers and pundits have some pretty silly proposals for the use of military force. Whether it’s President Clinton,“[It would] scare the shit out of al Qaeda if suddenly a bunch of black ninjas rappelled out of helicopters into the middle of their camp,” or uberconservative Pat Robertson, “We really ought to go ahead and [assassinate Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez]…It’s a whole lot cheaper than starting a war,” such harebrained schemes lack a basic understanding of military strategy, geography, and logistics, not to mention international law. Read more »

Last week, President Obama flew to Kabul to meet with President Hamid Karzai and sign the Enduring Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) between the United States and Afghanistan. This aspirational document is a broad framework to guide U.S.-led nationbuilding efforts in Afghanistan through the end of 2024. Most interesting, however, is what is missing, namely any guaranteed future U.S. financial support, or specific authorities for U.S. forces in the country after combat troops are withdrawn by the end of 2014. Moreover, the agreement signed by Obama and Karzai specifically states: “The United States further pledges not to use Afghan territory or facilities as a launching point for attacks against other countries.” Read more »

“As soon as they tell me it is limited, it means they do not care whether you achieve a result or not. As soon as they tell me ‘surgical,’ I head for the bunker.” General Colin Powell, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, September 1992. Read more »

Last week, while discussing U.S. military planning for the Korean Peninsula, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warned, “No question we’re within an inch of war almost every day in that part of the world.” As a follow up, CNN’s Wolf Blitzer asked Secretary Panetta what other issues kept him up at night. He responded: “Well, obviously Iran, Syria, the whole issue of turmoil in the Middle East, the whole issue of cyber war, the whole issue of weapons of mass destruction, rising powers—all of those things are threats that the United States faces in today’s world.” (Yesterday, Panetta inflated the worrisome geography to include “transnational threats” like “turmoil across the Middle East and North Africa” and the “threat of natural disasters.”) Read more »

• Greg Miller, “Broader Drone Tactics Sought,” Washington Post, April 19, 2012.

The CIA is seeking authority to expand its covert drone campaign in Yemen by launching strikes against terrorism suspects even when it does not know the identities of those who could be killed, U.S. officials said. Read more »

• Peter Cynkar, “Opinion Briefing: Mexico’s Drug War,” Gallup, April 4, 2012.

Mexicans personally feel less safe in their own neighborhoods in 2011 than they did at the onset of the drug war. While perceptions about safety have fluctuated, the 42% who said they feel safe walking alone at night in 2011 is down 15 percentage points from 57% in 2007. Read more »

Last fall, a two-part question circulated throughout the Pentagon: Can the United States win in Afghanistan? Will the United States win in Afghanistan?

In this case, “win” meant accomplishing the strategic objectives of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, as presented in President Obama’s December 2009 speech at West Point: disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan through “a military effort to create the conditions for a transition; a civilian surge that reinforces positive action; and an effective partnership with Pakistan.” Read more »