Micah Zenko

Politics, Power, and Preventive Action

Zenko covers the U.S. national security debate and offers insight on developments in international security and conflict prevention.

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Showing posts for "National Security"

Podcast: Rogue Justice: A Conversation with Karen Greenberg

by Micah Zenko
Rogue Justice Greenberg book cover Rogue Justice: The Making of the Security State by Karen J. Greenberg (Crown 2016).

Today I spoke with Karen Greenberg, director of the Center on National Security at Fordham Law School. We spoke about her comprehensive account of the national security legal debates since 9/11 in her new book, Rogue Justice: The Making of the Security State (Crown, 2016), as well as a new report from the Center on National Security that details all 101 publicly known Islamic State-related cases. Karen also offered her sobering and honest advice for young legal and national security scholars. Follow Karen’s work on Twitter @KarenGreenberg3, and listen to my conversation with one of the most respected and knowledgeable scholars in the world of national security, counterterrorism policy, and civil liberties. Read more »

Questioning Obama’s Drone Deaths Data

by Micah Zenko
Pre-flight inspection of an MQ-1B Predator unmanned drone aircraft on September 3, 2008 (Christopher  Griffin/Reuters). Pre-flight inspection of an MQ-1B Predator unmanned drone aircraft on September 3, 2008 (Christopher Griffin/Reuters).

Months after promising to release the number of civilians that have been killed in U.S. lethal counterterrorism operations outside of “areas of active hostilities,” the Obama Administration today released its count in a report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. According to the numbers provided, there were 473 “strikes” [presumably this includes both manned and unmanned aircraft conducted by both the CIA and the U.S. military] which killed between 2,372 and 2,581 combatants, and between 64 and 116 civilians. Read more »

How Not To Estimate and Communicate Risks

by Micah Zenko
An unmanned Space Exploration Technologies Falcon 9 rocket launches in Cape Canaveral, Florida, June 28, 2015 (Michael Berrigan/Reuters). An unmanned Space Exploration Technologies Falcon 9 rocket launches in Cape Canaveral, Florida, June 28, 2015 (Michael Berrigan/Reuters).

Estimating and translating the probability of an event for decision-makers is among the most difficult challenges in government and the private sector. The person making the estimate must be able to categorize or quantify a likelihood, and willing to relay that analysis to the decision-maker in a way that is comprehensible and timely. The decision-maker then must consider the probability within the context of other information, and subsequently consider the trade-offs between one course of action over another. The ultimate goal of perceiving and communicating risks is to best assure any institution has managed those risks and made the most sound choice possible in the time allotted. Read more »

Austria’s Presidential Election and the Race for the White House

by Guest Blogger for Micah Zenko
VanDerBellen Former head of the Greens Alexander Van der Bellen addresses a news conference after he announced to run for President in the 2016 Austrian presidential election in Vienna, Austria, January 10, 2016. (Heinz-Peter Bader/Reuters)

Anna-Sophia Haub is an Interdepartmental Program Assistant at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Just .6 percent was needed to defeat the far right candidate for the Austrian presidency. That was the difference of 31,000 votes in favor of Alexander Van der Bellen, an independent and former Green Party delegate, to defeat Norbert Hofer of the far right, anti-immigration Freedom Party. Although the Austrian presidential role is mostly ceremonial, it is nevertheless important to the development of the country’s national identity. Read more »

The Orlando Massacre and Global Terrorism

by Micah Zenko
blogterrorism People gather at a vigil in solidarity for the victims of the Orlando nightclub mass shooting at Taylor Square in Sydney, Australia, June 13, 2016. (Stringer/Reuters)

A brief note to place Sunday morning’s horrific massacre in Orlando, Florida, within the broader global context of terrorism. In 2014, the last year for which there is complete data, there were eighty-two terror attacks around the world that killed more than fifty people—twenty-eight of them killed over 100 people. This is according to the Global Terrorism Database, which is maintained by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. The country and number of attacks with more than fifty fatalities is listed below. Read more »

The State of Global Terrorism in 2015

by Micah Zenko
Jamaat-ud-Dawa-burn-flag-protest Supporters of the Jamaat-ud-Dawa Islamic organization burn a mock U.S. flag during a protest in Peshawar, Pakistan, May 27, 2016. (Fayaz Aziz/Reuters)

Today, the U.S. State Department published its Country Reports on Terrorism: 2015—a congressionally mandated analytical and statistical review of global terrorism. It is important to understand how the U.S. government defines this subjective phenomena: “The term ‘terrorism’ means premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents.” Read more »

Guest Post: Is American Fear of Islamic Terrorism Grounded in Evidence?

by Guest Blogger for Micah Zenko
Members of the New York City Police Department's newly formed Critical Response Command anti-terrorism unit stand in formation as they gather for their first deployment outside their headquarters on Randall's Island in New York City on November 16, 2015. (Mike Segar/Reuters) Members of the New York City Police Department's newly formed Critical Response Command anti-terrorism unit stand in formation as they gather for their first deployment outside their headquarters on Randall's Island in New York City on November 16, 2015. (Mike Segar/Reuters)

Tina Huang in an intern in the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Five months, three countries, one hundred and seventy-six dead. The self-proclaimed Islamic State has left a trail of carnage in the Western hemisphere (as well as tens of thousands of victims in the Middle East and North Africa). Subsequently, 51 percent of Americans fear that they or a family member will be killed in a terror attack. This level of fear among Americans is nearly equivalent to that experienced after 9/11, when 2,699 Americans died. The tragedy of 9/11 and more recent Islamic extremism attacks are also correlated with a rise of anti-Islamic hate crimes, which have more than doubled since 2008. Read more »

Ten Whats With…Adam Segal

by Micah Zenko
"The Hacked World Order: How Nations Fight, Trade, Maneuver, and Manipulate in the Digital Age" by Adam Segal (New York, NY: PublicAffairs, 2016). "The Hacked World Order: How Nations Fight, Trade, Maneuver, and Manipulate in the Digital Age" by Adam Segal (New York, NY: PublicAffairs, 2016).

Adam Segal is the Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow for China Studies and Director of the Digital and Cyberspace Policy Program at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is author of The Hacked World Order: How Nations Fight, Trade, Maneuver, and Manipulate in the Digital Age (New York, NY: PublicAffairs, 2016). Read more »

Guest Post: Clinton vs. Trump on Defeating the Islamic State

by Guest Blogger for Micah Zenko
A combination photo shows Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida and Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in Miami, Florida at their respective Super Tuesday primaries campaign events on March 1, 2016. (Audette and Galeano/Reuters) A combination photo shows Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida and Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in Miami, Florida at their respective Super Tuesday primaries campaign events on March 1, 2016. (Audette and Galeano/Reuters)

Tina Huang is an intern in the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations.

The rise of the self-proclaimed Islamic State will be a leading foreign policy issue for the incoming administration. Thus, it is crucial to understand the proposed policies of the candidates. The current results of the primary elections indicate that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump will likely win their party’s nominations. Though both candidates use strikingly similar rhetoric to describe how to counter the Islamic State, a close analysis of the details they each have provided exposes starkly different approaches. Read more »

Evaluating Michael Hayden’s Defense of CIA Drone Strikes

by Micah Zenko
An MQ-9 Reaper takes off on Kandahar Airfield in Afghanistan on December 5, 2015. (Cloys/U.S. Air Force) An MQ-9 Reaper takes off on Kandahar Airfield in Afghanistan on December 5, 2015. (Cloys/U.S. Air Force)

Former director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Gen. Michael Hayden has an op-ed in today’s New York Times: “To Keep America Safe, Embrace Drone Warfare.” The two-thousand-word piece provides some unique insights into the process by which CIA directors authorize—including over the phone—individual drone strikes and even order the specific munition to be used. Moreover, Hayden provides a more plausible and granular defense than those offered by other former CIA chiefs, including George Tenet, Leon Panetta, and Michael Morrell. He even makes some effort to engage directly with certain prominent criticisms of these lethal operations. Read more »